greedcanbgood

Unsustainability, High Beta, and Liquidity Risk Pervade Capital Markets

Your analysis is pretty good. Watch for the commercial banks to report good, even outstanding, Q2 earnings primarily due to mortgage volume. The bottom falls out in Q3 when mortgage volume has waned, the consumer "hunker-down" gets even more serious (e.g. consumer spending) and unemployment hits existing mortgages harder.