David H. Deans

The End of Brand Advertising

The data doesn't seem to support the notion that we're better than we were 50 years ago. Traditional advertising and PR firms continue to lead and guide their naive clients -- they tell them that throwing cash down the same old money pit is a wise investment.

Moreover, young communications majors that recently graduated from most universities have been taught by professors who are from the bygone leap-of-faith era of Madison Avenue. What they are taught about 21st Century digital marketing practices is often biased by that legacy thinking (real measurement is a fad, focus on your creativity, don't worry about business impact, etc).

When those new graduates enter the job market they're often greeted by legacy schooled advertising and PR agency executives that are typically clueless about how to engage consumers -- and shift from the old-style monologue to an more interactive dialog.

The notion of a hybrid analog/digital model will likely make sense to those who can't move beyond their own denial. They will keep using their tried and unproven approach to marketing products and services, regardless of the facts.

Some people are terrified of change to their status quo -- many in the advertising industry are fearful of the change that you describe. The end of an era is always painful for those who refuse to let go of the past, and start over.

Nine Media Predictions for 2009

Julia, I have to agree with Jim Dorey's comment -- we're going to see a groundswell of new low-budget Indie productions -- which the majors with try to emulate (both creativity and business model).

Also, your point about "videos of sleeping cats and skateboarding bulldogs" simply isn't the real focal point for the current fragmentation of the online video marketplace. Prosumer and lower-cost professional production models will further fragment the traditional market, and the results will be sweeping. IMHO, the rapidly evolving long-form prosumer video segment is the one to watch.