David H. Deans

The End of Brand Advertising

The data doesn't seem to support the notion that we're better than we were 50 years ago. Traditional advertising and PR firms continue to lead and guide their naive clients -- they tell them that throwing cash down the same old money pit is a wise investment.

Moreover, young communications majors that recently graduated from most universities have been taught by professors who are from the bygone leap-of-faith era of Madison Avenue. What they are taught about 21st Century digital marketing practices is often biased by that legacy thinking (real measurement is a fad, focus on your creativity, don't worry about business impact, etc).

When those new graduates enter the job market they're often greeted by legacy schooled advertising and PR agency executives that are typically clueless about how to engage consumers -- and shift from the old-style monologue to an more interactive dialog.

The notion of a hybrid analog/digital model will likely make sense to those who can't move beyond their own denial. They will keep using their tried and unproven approach to marketing products and services, regardless of the facts.

Some people are terrified of change to their status quo -- many in the advertising industry are fearful of the change that you describe. The end of an era is always painful for those who refuse to let go of the past, and start over.

Nine Media Predictions for 2009

Julia, I have to agree with Jim Dorey's comment -- we're going to see a groundswell of new low-budget Indie productions -- which the majors with try to emulate (both creativity and business model).

Also, your point about "videos of sleeping cats and skateboarding bulldogs" simply isn't the real focal point for the current fragmentation of the online video marketplace. Prosumer and lower-cost professional production models will further fragment the traditional market, and the results will be sweeping. IMHO, the rapidly evolving long-form prosumer video segment is the one to watch.

Online Content: Trading Analog Dollars for Digital Pennies

Fred, what you have called the "scarcity driven business models" would be better described as the "systematic restraint of trade models." Consider the facts: the government gives your corporation public radio spectrum for free. You use it to broadcast only the content that you decide will reach the public. As the gatekeeper, you ignore the FCC requirement for content to be "in the public interest" and instead sell access to your captive TV audience to the highest bidder. You give preference to producers with high-quality production values -- this essentially ensures that little to no independently produced art content reaches the public. For decades, low-budget creators of unique films and thought-provoking documentaries are left standing outside your gates, which enables you to extract the utmost profit -- while demonstrating that you can successfully block any attempts to mess with the safe status-quo that you've been able to fabricate for yourself and your shareholders. Then, the Internet emerges as a lost-cost unrestricted distribution network that levels the playing field, and the "restraint of trade model" loses value as independent content creators (including Prosumers) gain an audience and fragment the marketplace. The public now has a multitude of news and entertainment sources to choose from, and the once-unthinkable happens -- nearly 20% of Americans surveyed say that when analog TV broadcasts end, they will retire their traditional television forever. My point: Zucker's digital pennies are assured as long as he resists the "new rules" of the free-market distribution meritocracy. Meanwhile, he will milk the uninformed advertisers who continue to pay for "impressions" when the only meaningful metrics will be engagement and interaction.