Wojna12

Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates

Hi dick31785.

Let me say Ive actually fully analyzed the company. Let me further say that very recently I am long TSL. However i waited until a fair valuation occured before I bought in.

Btw this whole blog here is a 'cut n paste' of 2 news articles. Although I just absolutely love his little rhyme at the start. Makes me almost forget that the info here is word for word from 2 articles.......Ive learned alot...

Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates

One more to add.

I live how you saw 'we' as if you run a fund. I'll interpret that as you and yours wifes college fund for your kids. Which btw they are not going to college as you have been wrong for a WHOLE YEAR. Thats a long time to be wrong.

Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates

theres no new info here at all. then u proceed to throw in a chart with ema's that has nothing to do with the article. go try and pump up some other stock.

EPIC FAIL

Advanced Battery Technologies: A Steal of a Stock

shouldve added their post expansion growth calcs, but ill leave that one 2 u. not 2 hard.

just added this so i dont get jumped on that im not tkain into account future growth(ive done the calc but a 1yr delay will DRASTICALLY) cut ur returns which can be had elsewhere and returning to this company just prior to expansion completion.

Advanced Battery Technologies: A Steal of a Stock

Peter W i applaud u for looking for indepth info. if ud like plz do keep in touch with me to swap some investor ideas(funny thing, i got exact same name/initial) kande_raver12@hotmail.... (its old so i dont use but will check for email from u[plz make subject easy to recognize thats it u aobut ivnesting. gave this one out as dont want spam in my work email. u can understand. )

take my comment anyway u like it btw, ignore my grammar
lemme put it this way
DCF is a great method!!!....if u want to make ur final number whatever u want it to be. so many variables to change. lemme guess, since abat's debt is interest free(loan from chairman) u got it 0% when calculating wacc........
furthermore, u need to assume the future growth rate, and frankly for a small cap stock like this is plain ridiculous. we all know(or everypone should) that the terminal value is what makes the largest contribution in a DCF, so by overstating earlier growth rates or by inputing even a 1% pt diff in the terminal growth ur gunna shoot urself in the foot.

thats the short explanation for why dcf is a crock for this company. talk to any investment banker and theyll tell u they can make a dcf do w/e they want.

now lets take the famous grahams method. o boy....lets start with that this isnt a value stock!! its a growth stock. this isnt a good way to vlaue this company but lemme give a quick lowdown for some ppl(very basic).
assume company gos bankrupt or you take 100% ownership(which i doubt ud be able to with the crazy ownership laws in PRC through 2 subsidiaries for abat-i know nothing aobut the ownership so i might be wrong on jsut the pt which doesnt invalidate the below)
cash 22M
a/r & prepaid(50% allowance at least as there no way ud enforce it-chinas very much who u know etc and once co goes bankrupt etc u wont be able to enforce-court costs will be more than ull gain often)
a/r 3.8M . inv (75%) 1.4M
advance supplier(33%) 0.8M
ppe(50%) 7.8Mgoodwill,intabigle... no brand, its from purchase where overpaid the chairman....)
liabilities:
payable - 1.2M
other/accrue - 0.7M
officer loan 1.1M

total aset: 35M(being generous with 50% for inv & a/r)
liab: 4M
net: 31M
shares o/s: 51M approx (will be more if 4M taken by institutions 2nite - up to 55M) forgot exact numerbs doing off top of head

31M/51M(to make it even higher val, instead of use 55)
0.56$/share ......9$ a share right.....

its simple, graham dont work for this!!!!!GROWTH NOT VALUE

best method. P/E ratio, P/S ratio, gross margin, operating margin, net margin. that im srue u can figure out urself.

heres the catch!!!its a growth story right.prob is theyre at max capacity. MAX capacity. wont be any growth until new equip setup in plants which takes quite a while. expect them to top out 40-48M sales/yr, approx 10-12M/qtr depending pon product mix(havent had chance to call them to find out wip mix)

having said all that. i jsut looked at the stock today morning, did my analysis.
.27-.31 eps for whole 2008 yr. 2 factors. prod mix. whether 4M shares taken by institution 2nite.

(industry)
15.9 p/e yields 4.29 - 4.93/share
10 p/bk yields 5.6/share

can do various method-enterprise value, p/s, book, earning. can do mix of them, can not use industry but smaller selection of stocks for their multiple.

i personally like wieghted avg of industry(not sector), 1 posterchild company, any comparables companies. weighting u can play with from experience/past historical analysis youve done on other companies.
or. 3-5 comparables companies. alter p/e by % using, customer & supplier concentration, prod mix, geography etc(porters 5 forces give basic for this)

now. im considerin buying this, but im holding out to find out mon if institutions acquire their additional shares. also need to call mon to find out expansion schedule.

sorry for length.sory if small rounding/miscalc(did it super quick right now as i will NOT be posting my full calcs)

btw stokerati....ur method sounds like abuncha junk.