Time management is essential to monitoring a 47 position portfolio. My 1st comment concludes with "Rich-unck:xx hrs"; I uncheck from the article to avoid repetitive comments, nonsense, and (most) arguments. I extend another XX hrs when I respond to a question or comment...I also respond to all PMs.
BACKGROUND My journey as a self-directed investor (SDI) began in 1973, and resulted in financial independence at age 52, which also allowed me to retire from corporate life the following year (Feb 1995).
I have no special knowledge not attainable by others who also dedicate themselves to the study of the economy, market, and stocks...I could cease all portfolio management today, and place it with a professional manager; however, I enjoy the psychic and financial rewards. Alternatively, I could become a passive investor via mutual funds and/or index ETFs (those works too! ). With few exceptions, As a rule, Rich only discusses his IRA here--it is only a portion of his and Joyce’s investment assets.
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY If you ‘lived for today’ over the past 5 or 6 decades, you better invest in lottery tickets. The most probable path to a financially secure retirement is the product of an investment program (either active or passive) started when relatively young; living on less than all your after-tax income (saving means delayed gratification); and either self-directed or via professional management, adopting a sensible strategy suitable to age and comfort zone. There is wisdom in flexibility, diversification, and not being life-long wed to any strategy. It is appropriate to take greater risk for greater rewards (sensible growth stocks) when younger, as those are our lowest earnings years combined with our highest expense years--in the years between early investment and retirement, investments in solid growth companies can double 8 times or more.
There is time to adjust allocations to a more conservative strategy when closer to retirement. Never assume you have an information edge over the professionals. Time-in-the-market is your principle advantage. When/if you become interested in dividend stocks, never forget both price return and dividends compound, and price more so.
Financial independence is achieved when one has sufficient confidence his/her lifestyle will not change significantly, regardless of the potential depth or breadth of decline suffered by their portfolio--including a prolonged series of bear markets such as 1929-37. True, the recent 18-month bear market ending mid-2009, was deep--but also too brief to consider its lack of widespread dividend cuts to be as proof a portfolio of dividend-payers won't suffer income losses in a more prolonged decline (i.e., no portfolio is "dividend bulletproof").
The balance of this profile is lengthy, and likely not helpful to passive investors who simply go along for the ride, their portfolios bobbing up and down like flotsam in the ocean; their course always subject to the whims of winds, waves, and trends...THIS IS YOUR ONLY WARNING!
PORTFOLIO GOALS Now in my 70s, it’s no longer appropriate to engage in the growth strategies applied in wealth accumulation. As a more conservative investor, 100% of his portfolio consists of dividend-payers. 95% of positions have investment grade credit ratings (the lone exception is a REIT).This combination, along with having companies in 10 of the 11 S&P GICS sectors (none in Materials at this time) provide a measure of diversification. This IRA portfolio holds no bonds, though bonds and other investments are held elsewhere.
Maximizing total return and wealth preservation are mutually exclusive. A key observation: Having the capacity for risk is not the same as having the tolerance for it!
Rich’s objective is now a ‘smoother-ride’ that levels out the market’s peaks and valleys (limit losses, trim notable excess valuation). That smoother ride in an all-equity portfolio cannot be achieved without active management and continuous monitoring of positions--therefore TIME is an essential input to his portfolio management. Active management does not’ means frequent changes, as it is not unusual for a quarter or more to pass between a trimming or sale (nonetheless, when a company fundamentals change, or a mistake is made, corrective action is taken.)
STRATEGY SINCE 2008 Rich targets both legs of TOTAL RETURN (distributions + price change). His Growth & Income strategy often focuses on VALUE investing tactics applied to dividend-payers. Value investors seek out unpopular, companies most investors are avoiding (i.e., fundamentals have declined but credit rating is strong, BoD has implemented a rational recovery plan, and the dividend not in danger). Value investors seek to be paid to wait for other investors to recognize the stock’s value and assign it a greater share price. In any event, value stock or growth stock, Rich always seeks a ‘margin of safety’--no shares are bought at prices >FV, and his margin of safety is derived from dividends paid, price appreciation, and rising FV over time.
In all cases, value or growth, Rich selects well-established dividend-paying companies having a high-probability of growing earnings (growth of earnings is ESSENTIAL to growth of price and dividends). He tends to be flexible, forward looking, reactive to changing fundamentals, and willing to admit a mistake so action follows.
SDI is not easy, success is not assured, and in recent decades, advice from academics, and investment coaches, almost universally recommend index funds. Those NOT having the prerequisite time and interest are unlikely to develop the requisite skills for stock investing--thus the probability strongly suggests most newbies would be better served by indexing (Ben Graham wrote favorably of indexing). However, when done successfully, self-directed stock investing can offer rich psychic and financial rewards.
CORE PORTFOLIO Presently, +/-30 equities. Core holdings dominate at about 65% of total portfolio positions. Favored are traditional, large- and mid-cap, low-beta, best/near-best in class, institutional-owned, moaty, dividend-paying, value and growth stocks, having investment-grade debt ratings, and representing the consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, and telecom sectors.
OPPORTUNISTIC PORTFOLIO The remaining 15+ positions consist of equally well-known dividend-payers found among widely-owned cyclicals, such as financial, industrials, consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and energy sectors are sensitive to the economy. In an expanding economy, cyclicals typically grow their earnings (and dividends) faster than do the typically slower-growing core companies. But because the reverse is also true, in a contracting economy, these positions are intended to be heavily trimmed to preserve gains as the economy peaks and shows evidence of decline. Some are susceptible to quite significant price declines when Mr. Market assumes their will suffer reduced earnings, and sometimes dividend-freezes/cuts, in anticipation of those events.
Rich is sometimes fully-invested, but unlike some, observes no such rule. Building a large cash cushion at the front-end of a correction/bear market (-20%) provides the dry powder required to both cushion the market's decline, and also creates the cash required to purchase excellent companies at below FV prices (without having to sell a position he wants to keep!).
TRIMMING POSITIONS When positions in either portfolio become significantly overvalued, they are trimmed by 5-10%, and the proceeds applied to fairly valued companies before the (almost always) temporary gift of over-valuation reverts to the price mean. If the position continues to advance, and absent other information, the position will be trimmed again. Added benefits to selective trimming include (1) serves as a more sensible method of rebalancing (as opposed to automatic--professionals do not use such a meat cleaver); (2) reduces the position's remaining Capital at Risk (which may suggest room for additional shares within an otherwise full position), and (3) provides the necessary dry powder to buy other shares at FV or below.
OTHER INTERESTS As we age, the importance of family grows. Rich has long volunteered in his community; over the years has served with distinction as member/chair of a number of advisory committees. Assisting others on SA is also a source of satisfaction and fulfillment.
Finally, having been blessed by years of excellent investment performance, Joyce and Rich have long been avid world travelers, and have visited over 60 countries over a span of 30 years (his SA avatar reflects the Taj Mahal in his sun glasses). They reside in Michigan--for 9 months of beauty, bliss, and family, and thoroughly enjoy wintering in equally beautiful Naples FL--for 3 months of sunny warmth and relaxation.
Life is good--it's been an unbelievably awesome ride!
I have watched, listened, learned and played the markets for about 25 years. At first my interest reflected a natural curiosity about business, but after legal training I graduated into a more educated and holistic view of the market as a reflection of litigation, law, news, market share, patents, finance, share volume, competition, competent management, philosophy and data.
Just an ordinary retired guy. Worked thirty plus years for a Class I railroad as a financial analyst in the Engineering Department. Living on social security (or in my case RR Retirement) will not support my lifestyle, so investing demands profits to make up the difference.
Married. Two boys both married.
Vietnam 1968 Infantry
Nathan Weiss is the Senior Analyst and company founder of Unit Economics, a Boston-based independent research firm. Nathan Weiss was the author of The Weiss Report, a monthly newsletter focused on risk arbitrage and market neutral strategies from 1998 to 2000. From 2000 to 2006 Mr. Weiss was a generalist analyst and portfolio manager at Noble Partners, contributing significantly to their outstanding returns.
Chris Damas' contrarian equity research is broad based and covers energy production and infrastructure, metals, agriculture, chemicals, forestry, industrials, telecoms, retail, technology, financials, transports, renewables and special situations as well as US MLP's. Chris managed the second largest preferred share portfolio on Bay Street during the 80's and also follows currency and fixed income markets closely. His investment universe is broad and he spends most of his time hunting for actionable trade ideas and long term investment opportunities. His investment thinking and trading activity are now only available by subscribing to the US and Canadian versions of The BCMI Report (trademark) and The BCMI Flash (trademark) which are issued at least weekly and more frequently when opportunities and market conditions demand it.
I'm an asset manager at Hebba Alternative Investments with a focus on real assets. In my articles I like to focus on events that affect the macro environment for assets (especially gold and silver), and also introduce readers to different metrics that I believe are under-utilized when assessing investments.
On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.
I'm not always right with recommendations, but investors and readers can know that I always tell the truth (there is no deception) and I eat my own cooking as recommendations are either always owned OR the reason I dont own them is given (usually related to restrictions on stocks I can buy).
Advising people in financial matters is a serious issue and integrity is much more important than money to me, but I do believe both can co-exist. You live with money, but after your death you only have your morality and integrity and thus i've made my choice between the two. A bit philosophical for a bio, but I dont think there's a better way to give investors my background than that.
We offer investors a free weekly email list detailing gold, silver, and general economic markets which you can sign up for at: http://www.communitysynergy.com/subscribe/hebbainvestments_subscribe.html
To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, be nothing. -Elbert Hubbard
I have a Masters degree in Computer Science, and worked for 14 years in development, technical publications and software quality assurance. I have been investing for 20 years. Currently, I do writing, photography, and FileMaker Pro programming on contract.
My short fiction can be found (under pseudonym J. Seunnasepp) at http://50centflash.com/
"The fascination with the human face has never left me... Every face I see seems to hide - and sometimes fleetingly to reveal - the mystery of another human being. Capturing this revelation became my goal and passion." – Photographer Philippe Halsman
Marina Avilkina is the person behind 'Timing Best Buy'. She is an Associate Professor and hold Ph.D. degree in Economics. She is the author of three books on finance published in. She is also business writer, academic researcher and investor.
"My forte is Finance. I am particularly focused on investigating stock trends. I utilize my financial and economic experience, as well as thorough research, to gauge the progress and outlook of individual stocks. My goal is to provide relevant information and prudent advice to investors, helping them make informed and sensible investment decisions."
I've been in the investing world for the last 10 years, dealing with stocks, options, mutual funds, and a little bit of forex. I have also been involved in the fields of manufacturing, engineering, information technology, and commercial fishing. I had been thinking about pursuing a career in the financial services industry, but never took the leap. Right now, I'm more or less semi-retired at 36, working part-time on a charter fishing boat, and writing articles on Seeking Alpha for beer money!
Paolo Gorgo' founded Nortia Research to pursue his passion for equity research. Paolo is an Italy-based investor who mostly analyzes distressed debt and turnaround cases. On Seeking Alpha, he started covering the Telecommunications Infrastructure and Colocation Industry, whose turnaround has been impressive - see Paolo's article: "Equinix's Journey From IPO To The Nasdaq 100 Through Near Bankruptcy".
His commentary has been quoted both by news organizations like Reuters and listed companies like Equinix, Switch and Data, TelX (Digital Realty), etc.
Paolo can be reached at: admin [at] nortiaresearch [dot] com
Petroleum Engineer, 30+ years in the Service side, Drilling and Completions , Cementing Specialist. I run a small consulting organization focusing on Cementing and Fracturing Quality Control and assurance. I love working on wells. Avoiding trouble wells on the front end and often fixing problem wells on the back end.
Michael T. Snyder is a graduate of the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia and has two law degrees from the University of Florida. He is an attorney that has worked for some of the largest and most prominent law firms in Washington D.C. and who now resides outside of Seattle, Washington. He is a very active blogger and is also a respected researcher, writer, speaker and activist. You can follow him on The Economic Collapse blog: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
Started investing with the market collapse of 2000 at 18 with military earnings. Gradually elevated to options trading and commodities. A decade later has a good grasp of the "new normal" without the confusion of remembering the "old normal". Don't personally claim to be a market genius, however, completely engrossing myself into all aspects of the market for a decade allows me some perspective that swing traders or long-term part time investors do not have.
I am more of a fundamentals chartist. It may seem like an oxymoron but I haven't had a losing year in 12 straight years. Chartists I believe are alot like Nostradamus....they can tell you why something happened after the fact but can never tell you what will happen because they don't take into account macro events, however, using Bollinger Bands, RSI indicators, and volume to augment options trading based on fundamentals is a recipe for success for me.
My goal is to bring exposure to business development companies (BDCs) that finance small to medium sized businesses, typically overlooked by banks. BDCs are an instrument for investors to earn healthy dividends by avoiding double taxation at the corporate level and allowing income to flow directly to each shareholder. Please see website link below for more information.
I am an analyst at a research and consulting firm that serves institutional clients. We advise over $2 trillion of client capital and offer asset allocation recommendations based on our investment manager and market research.