User 244491

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Shalom dear Eli Hoffman,
good to see serious commentary not some bluff from SA writers who still live with their mom at 45.
Shavua Tov.

Monday, August 18: Week in Review

You seem to be very intelligent guy who never traded commodities (maybe some FX,1 mini-Silver?),I like your observations but all you said is known before you was born.
The happiest thing in your article that you will never believe may turn true next year,that Dow Jones really will fall to 6200 or lower,why not.
Does it have to do with China,with your mom selling her bleeding mutual fund to pay your tuition or Play Station,does it have to do with anything?
The reason that markets crash lies in one simple psychological aspect,nobody believes in it as 99.99% of investors want market always to go straight up and every investor will say that his stock is the best in the world but there are tens of thousands of stocks and millions of investors,how can be that each stock is the best in the world?
There are so many sectors and every investor in any sector believes this is the best stock in the best sector...
The final countdown is aproaching,those that didn't take money out of the table (how one can sell the best stock in the world, average is already down 30%) doesn't matter if reason is greed or stupidiness,are going to witness BEAR market in it's natural pure form,as bear knows no fear,he spreads blood and destruction whenever he goes whatever he touches.
So play your Playstations in a meantime bear will play with you his game.

Sentiment Review: Bullishness Rising

I meant 10-15 years,not 115.

Sentiment Review: Bullishness Rising

I expected criticism for my bearish view on the market,thanks,sorry for my english (I live in Frankfurt,Germany) but I know that there is no new money on the table.Some say money come from commodities back to stocks,I disagree,as average american investor sits on losses above 20% on those too as many of you like to buy things at the top.
Regarding money is flowing from money market into stocks,I disagree too,as money that is invested in fixed income usually stays conservative,investors that go for low interest are smart investors,they know market is broken they will wait at some extreme valuations before buying beaten bleeding stocks,as I expect Dow Jones to reach first bottom at 7000-7500 next year for sure,probably some short term money will be reinvested from bonds to stocks but only short term,as we enter biggest crash in american history (thank God Federal Reserve is buying index futures,selling short commodities to stop panic) that will get us to 2500-3750 on the Dow Jones.But even then nobody will make any money buying big caps as indexes will stay flat for 115 years with very small yearly change.After we will have gray hairs our children and grand children will ride next big bull wave,but we will never see a bull again.

Sentiment Review: Bullishness Rising

For the capital to flow into the market,this capital must be made somewhere,as average american investor sits on losses of 40% and bigger,where tha capital will come from.Better write tales for children as you are too uneducated to comment on investing,honcho.

The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Growth, Confidence and Retail Numbers

Short the Russell,Dow,Nasdaq,SP from Monday cover on Friday.
I am preparing myself for ride on e-mini Dow till 11000 on Friday,maybe will close some of shorts done on Thursday previous week.

Weak Dollar Bodes Well for U.S. Economy

Put your money where your mouth is,don't teach real life investors how to make money,statistical economics have to do with markets what you have to do on Mars.
Dow Jones is going soon to below 10000 then immediately sits at 9000 then stays in the dangerous zone till December as mutual funds will start to sell to pikers fantastic valuations reports and all media channels will deliver it to investors on a timely basis as fund managers have their yearly bonuses and job at stake,when investors finally will jump the ship,this combined with unloading Dow Jones,SP500,NASDAQ holdings by funds that bought it at 9000 to unload it to investors and when their wish will not materialize as investors will flee the sunking ship,Dow Jones can start to move to it's important support at 7000-7500 in the first quarter of 2009.And this target will be reached as algorythmic trades will enter the sell side immediately and start to hedge their unhedge positions,this will increas volatility VIX,XO,VXD to levels higher that previous highs and we will reach the target at 7500 for DJIA.Then everybody wil cover his short positions and that will bring DJIA to 8500 probably but it will not change the bear market from testing some new deeper lows.
I may be wrong in my opinion only in one case,if DJIA will fall in one day 2000-3000 then God save America.
Don't trust nobody as bear knows no fear,trust your killer insticts only.