jacflash

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

Alas Brad, we ARE talking about religion here, unfortunately.

Mapping the Chrysler Fallout: Dealer Shutdowns

The worst part is that they probably didn't cut enough.

The Death Of GM And Chrysler

What Brandon Matthews fails to realize is that they should have done this years ago. All those dealers selling a diminishing number of cars means that most aren't making enough to keep the doors open... they need to squeeze and slime every dollar they can out of everyone who walks on to the lot. There's a reason that the experience of buying a Dodge is very different from the experience of buying a Honda in the same price bracket. This is it.

Dollar's Purchasing Power Annihilated - The Chart They Don't Want You to See

On May 09 04:41 PM archman82011 wrote:

> <<"Borrowed" from whom? Banks? And then paid back? With money earned
> via productive effort? I'm failing to see the problem.
>
> Businesses have been doing this since the dawn of time. Why is it
> not "real" when individuals are doing it?>>
>
> Because individuals are NOT paying it back!!
> You fail to see the problem??
> Or you don't want to see the problem?
>

I see that the vast majority of individuals ARE "paying it back", and thus your original argument -- that the average American's standard of living is bogus -- is bogus.

It's a big big leap from "some people abused credit" to "our standard of living is built on nothing".

Dollar's Purchasing Power Annihilated - The Chart They Don't Want You to See

> Any chart would be illusionary. Why? Because America's standard
> of living has been increased not by "real" wealth, but by borrowed
> money.

"Borrowed" from whom? Banks? And then paid back? With money earned via productive effort? I'm failing to see the problem.

Businesses have been doing this since the dawn of time. Why is it not "real" when individuals are doing it?

Dollar's Purchasing Power Annihilated - The Chart They Don't Want You to See

Yawn yawn Ayn Rand goldbuggery fiat currency political elites yawn yawn. Those of us old enough to remember the 1970s heard all of this a long time ago.

Let's see a chart showing how the real living standard of the average American citizen has fared over the same period, mm?

Book Review: Great Depression Ahead

So did Jeremy Grantham, but that's not what you say this guy is saying. Sounds like yet another sales-letter-disguised... to me.


On May 08 10:14 AM Larry House wrote:

> Thanks for the comments. I am not a disciple of Dent, but I find
> all opinions worth considering. I find it interesting that George
> Soros has called for the bottom of the downturn to occur in late
> '09, followed by a weak, flatline recovery extending for years.

Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

Indeed... if that plunge had taken place over 7 months, and two months later we were ~30% off the lows, and we were looking at 12-month figures...


On May 08 08:16 AM doubleguns wrote:

> With that logic the Japanese market should not have any new lows
> since it has plunged from over 39000 to now the 8000's.

Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

Given the extreme dramatic fall from 12 month highs experienced by nearly every stock in the market at some point between, say, 8/1/08 and 3/15/09, is it any wonder there are almost no new lows being recorded? And given how far nearly every stock in the market is from where it was last spring, is it any wonder that there are almost no new highs being recorded?

I don't see anything nefarious here. I see a far bigger (and far broader, and maybe most importantly far <i>faster</i&... drop than occurred in 2002. This seems so obvious to me that I suspect I'm missing something. What?

Review of 'The Fast Track to Becoming a Millionaire' by Michael Masterson

Masterson's comments on Amazon suggest that he's a first-rate idiot. (Read his comments on Taleb to see what I mean.) A quick look through this book suggests that it's basically a sales letter for his other products -- seven figures for him but not you, I guess. There are much, much better books out there.

Chrysler's Future

"it’s not as though anybody else has been able to manage Chrysler any better"

Lutz and Eaton weren't doing all that badly before the *cough* "merger" with Daimler. Hit products, nice pipeline, good market share, $7 or $8 billion cash reserve (real money back then)... and then the Germans took over and it all got picked clean. If Cerberus had had another 12-18 months before the oil shock and the recession they might have pulled something together, but as it was nobody could have saved 'em.

Buyer Beware: 30 Biggest Bankruptcy Risks

GIven the games going on in the CDS market at the moment, I'm not confident one can make the leap from there to here with enough confidence to be useful. But it's an interesting list, even if I think the chances of F and RAD and a couple of the others going down are much lower than generally realized.

But hey, my Ford preferreds have tripled since I bought them 8 weeks ago, so maybe my glasses are a little rose-colored at the moment.

Snap-On: The Future Looks Promising

"Younger generation" DIYers don't buy Snap-On tools. They never have. They go to Sears and buy Craftsman tools and get 98% of the quality (and on hand tools, 100% of the no-nonsense lifetime guarantee and made-in-USA pride) for 30% of the price.

And that, right there, is the pushback on some of the case for SNA. Their distribution model requires huge HUGE margins, which they get from pro mechanics because having Snap-On tools is a status symbol, a professional badge, the mark of a pro versus just some guy who messes around with cars.

And yes, big diag equipment tends to belong to the shop, but those red tool chests full of $80 wrenches belong to the mechanic, who probably spent years paying off the loans Snap-On gave him to buy all that stuff (we're talking $30k or more here). They go where he goes, and unless you see a lot of new independent shops opening -- I don't -- I'm having trouble seeing any sort of big-growth case for SNA in the US.

And overseas... without the long-entrenched shop culture supporting the pro mechanic = snap-on user dynamic, I think it's going to be very hard for them to get traction without drastically altering their distribution model.

Ford (F) Chairman calls for higher gas prices: "We clearly need - whether it's a gasoline tax or cap and trade, it's something we do need because with gasoline at $2 [a gallon], customer behaviour is not driving in the direction that the government would like." Weird, but nothing new.

Not weird at all. What F would like is predictably high-ish gas prices, so that they can make multi-year multi-billion investments in developing more efficient vehicles with some confidence. (They'd probably be just as happy with predictably low-ish gas prices, but that's neither PC nor realistic.)

I'm Skeptical About This Rally

Bulls aren't born in full daylight, ever... they're born at the first glimpse of the possibility of light. Study history: Recessionary bear markets always end well before the recessions themselves. As soon as the market thinks it likely that things will turn out okay, out come the bargain shoppers, squeeze go the shorts, and boom, off it goes.

Just hope this isn't an oncoming train.