jacflash

Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

Indeed... if that plunge had taken place over 7 months, and two months later we were ~30% off the lows, and we were looking at 12-month figures...


On May 08 08:16 AM doubleguns wrote:

> With that logic the Japanese market should not have any new lows
> since it has plunged from over 39000 to now the 8000's.

Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

Given the extreme dramatic fall from 12 month highs experienced by nearly every stock in the market at some point between, say, 8/1/08 and 3/15/09, is it any wonder there are almost no new lows being recorded? And given how far nearly every stock in the market is from where it was last spring, is it any wonder that there are almost no new highs being recorded?

I don't see anything nefarious here. I see a far bigger (and far broader, and maybe most importantly far <i>faster</i&... drop than occurred in 2002. This seems so obvious to me that I suspect I'm missing something. What?

I'm Skeptical About This Rally

Bulls aren't born in full daylight, ever... they're born at the first glimpse of the possibility of light. Study history: Recessionary bear markets always end well before the recessions themselves. As soon as the market thinks it likely that things will turn out okay, out come the bargain shoppers, squeeze go the shorts, and boom, off it goes.

Just hope this isn't an oncoming train.

Preventing the Depression of 2009

Market bubbles are a well-documented phenomenon of human nature. One of their characteristics is the whole "it's different this time" line of thinking that accompanies them, and that even ostensible experts -- and their models -- have a hard time seeing through. You call for official intervention to dampen bubble growth. Would your Officialdom have been able to recognize the tech boom as a "bubble" in 1999? It certainly doesn't seem like our existing Officialdom was able to recognize the housing bubble in 2005! Why on Earth should we believe that future regulators will have better crystal balls? Or will you just adopt an official policy of having central banks sell into any rally that exceeds what, 8% a year? What kind of foolishness is this?