Benito Camela

Estimate Revisions and 'The Earnings Season Racket'

You can basically write anything regarding "manipulated earnings". It is amazing that people even read these "jokers"

The thruth is given by fundamentals. The enconomy is still going donw the tubes, even after all the government freebies, the Feds low-interest subsidy and the accountants imagined profits...

Be ready for the big leg down in 2010...

Guidance - Wow

The article is irresponsible.
a) The number of companies reporting so far is very low -- not even 20%.
b) Changes is accounting rules by which financial institutions can report profits out of thin air is factored in any shape or form -- methodological error that may lead to wrong conclusions.
c) Corporations can not see the future so they estimate it based on their pipeline and an averaging method that puts more emphasis on recent history (I actually worked with management estimating the future at some point). In this case they are telling us that recent history will repeat itself.
d) It says nothing about the huge adrenaline shot that the economy received from Uncle Sam and that like any drug its effects will all but dissapear over the next few quarters.

Overall, it seems like a bunch of BS

Bernanke's Reappointment: Surprised, But Relieved

This is not good news. Bernanke is a crony of Obama.

He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.

The Good News About Bernanke

This is not good news. Bernanke is a crony of Obama.

He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.

Sentiment Driving Prices Higher: Bull Is in Full Stampede Mode

Please note the BoE's move today. It seems that another large institution might be into trouble in the UK.

Equities are expensive unless you buy the make-believe accounting used specially in banks. Just focus on honest cash flow and you get a different picture.

Jeremy Siegel's Response to Stock Market Data Criticism

Stocks have proven to be a suckers game supported by a huge structure of salespeople, analysts, companies management, etc. whose interest is to make some moeny today regardless of the long-term losses/profits to your savings.

Bond on the contrary provide a stable income that fits rather well with your life cycle.

Closing Update for Tuesday, August 4

A few ideas:

-- Personal Income goes down then lets buy stocks
-- Consumer sentiment goes down, then lets buy stocks
-- MSFT has its first quarter with lower revenues, then lets buy stocks
-- Mortgage defaults go up, then lets buy stocks
-- Corporate revenues go down, then lets buy stock
-- States have a deficit of $160 billion and are cutting expenditures, then lets buy stocks
-- Commercial real state is plunging, then lets buy stocks

Sentiment Positive Ahead of Cisco's Earnings Release

Cisco executes well, hence chances are that they may exceed expectations a little bit.

The key would be on projections and here things are a little less rosy.

If they dissapoint even a little, then it could be a major selloff for an extremelly overbought technology sector.

Suggest looking at this one flat.

GDP Report Offers Positive Headline, But Negative Details

Momentum players have the upper hand, but fundamentals will prevail -- not sure when.

With income going down, how can the consumer pull this? It is nonsense to believe that we will go back to normal anytimes soon after an abnormal crisis...

The Stock Market Is Not a Leading Indicator

Dear Prince of Persia, You need to study basic economics to realize that so far the souces of growth are temporary and once it wears off, then you have a crash.

Invest at your own risk.

S&P 500 Target Reached

The insanity of the bulls is the same we saw at the end of 2007.

The consumer will continue retrenching with lower income. Furthermore, savings should continue to rise getting closer to the 10% mark in order to rebalance household wealth.

The process will take several years. Anyone believing otherwise should study historical precedents.

Morning Briefing: Testing the Highs

The market is surprisingly drifting slightly lower which opens the posibility of a key reversal day. The conditions are set for such price actions given still deteriorating fundamentals and overbought conditions.

Stay tuned and flat waiting to short this madness.

No Capex Recovery Yet

In 2003 the economy had the easy credit pump working as if there was no tomorrow, hence we had the illusion that there was growth.

As it turns out, we were building just a house of cards. Now that the house is falling it will take years to rebuild a solid one.

Most corporations see some stability but no signs of a recovery yet, but the stock market is somoking high quality grass and betting that we will grow at 5% soon. Dream on.

Newsletter Writers Turning a Little More Bullish

The market is getting itself ready for a hard correction. It is as overvalued as it was two to three years ago, with the added bonus that another macro leg down could be in play before the end of the years.

If you want to preserve wealth stay away from stocks.

Q2 Earnings Growth vs. Estimates

The expectations game is a short term one, then reality sets in.

Reality is screaming macro problems due to lower revenues. Lower earnings should follow down the road.

Withouth s sustainalbe source of demand, expect another economic dip. Stay healthy and away from stocks.