Benito Camela's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/2446/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/168604-estimate-revisions-and-the-earnings-season-racket?source=feed#comment-728695 728695
The thruth is given by fundamentals. The enconomy is still going donw the tubes, even after all the government freebies, the Feds low-interest subsidy and the accountants imagined profits...

Be ready for the big leg down in 2010...]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:52:28 -0400
The thruth is given by fundamentals. The enconomy is still going donw the tubes, even after all the government freebies, the Feds low-interest subsidy and the accountants imagined profits...

Be ready for the big leg down in 2010...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167026-guidance-wow?source=feed#comment-719807 719807 a) The number of companies reporting so far is very low -- not even 20%.
b) Changes is accounting rules by which financial institutions can report profits out of thin air is factored in any shape or form -- methodological error that may lead to wrong conclusions.
c) Corporations can not see the future so they estimate it based on their pipeline and an averaging method that puts more emphasis on recent history (I actually worked with management estimating the future at some point). In this case they are telling us that recent history will repeat itself.
d) It says nothing about the huge adrenaline shot that the economy received from Uncle Sam and that like any drug its effects will all but dissapear over the next few quarters.

Overall, it seems like a bunch of BS]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:17:41 -0400 a) The number of companies reporting so far is very low -- not even 20%.
b) Changes is accounting rules by which financial institutions can report profits out of thin air is factored in any shape or form -- methodological error that may lead to wrong conclusions.
c) Corporations can not see the future so they estimate it based on their pipeline and an averaging method that puts more emphasis on recent history (I actually worked with management estimating the future at some point). In this case they are telling us that recent history will repeat itself.
d) It says nothing about the huge adrenaline shot that the economy received from Uncle Sam and that like any drug its effects will all but dissapear over the next few quarters.

Overall, it seems like a bunch of BS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158111-bernanke-s-reappointment-surprised-but-relieved?source=feed#comment-645604 645604
He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:50:01 -0400
He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158128-the-good-news-about-bernanke?source=feed#comment-645592 645592
He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:47:35 -0400
He obeyed and now he is rewarded. He created a large debt (that my kids will pay) to save the corrupt Wall Street and is trying to create a bubble to solve the previous bubble.

They think that people are stupid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153861-sentiment-driving-prices-higher-bull-is-in-full-stampede-mode?source=feed#comment-617631 617631
Equities are expensive unless you buy the make-believe accounting used specially in banks. Just focus on honest cash flow and you get a different picture. ]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 08:29:03 -0400
Equities are expensive unless you buy the make-believe accounting used specially in banks. Just focus on honest cash flow and you get a different picture. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154155-jeremy-siegel-s-response-to-stock-market-data-criticism?source=feed#comment-617593 617593
Bond on the contrary provide a stable income that fits rather well with your life cycle. ]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 08:03:31 -0400
Bond on the contrary provide a stable income that fits rather well with your life cycle. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153722-closing-update-for-tuesday-august-4?source=feed#comment-615556 615556
-- Personal Income goes down then lets buy stocks
-- Consumer sentiment goes down, then lets buy stocks
-- MSFT has its first quarter with lower revenues, then lets buy stocks
-- Mortgage defaults go up, then lets buy stocks
-- Corporate revenues go down, then lets buy stock
-- States have a deficit of $160 billion and are cutting expenditures, then lets buy stocks
-- Commercial real state is plunging, then lets buy stocks
]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:10:41 -0400
-- Personal Income goes down then lets buy stocks
-- Consumer sentiment goes down, then lets buy stocks
-- MSFT has its first quarter with lower revenues, then lets buy stocks
-- Mortgage defaults go up, then lets buy stocks
-- Corporate revenues go down, then lets buy stock
-- States have a deficit of $160 billion and are cutting expenditures, then lets buy stocks
-- Commercial real state is plunging, then lets buy stocks
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153610-sentiment-positive-ahead-of-cisco-s-earnings-release?source=feed#comment-614905 614905
The key would be on projections and here things are a little less rosy.

If they dissapoint even a little, then it could be a major selloff for an extremelly overbought technology sector.

Suggest looking at this one flat.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:55:19 -0400
The key would be on projections and here things are a little less rosy.

If they dissapoint even a little, then it could be a major selloff for an extremelly overbought technology sector.

Suggest looking at this one flat.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153320-gdp-report-offers-positive-headline-but-negative-details?source=feed#comment-614893 614893
With income going down, how can the consumer pull this? It is nonsense to believe that we will go back to normal anytimes soon after an abnormal crisis...]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:48:18 -0400
With income going down, how can the consumer pull this? It is nonsense to believe that we will go back to normal anytimes soon after an abnormal crisis...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153578-the-stock-market-is-not-a-leading-indicator?source=feed#comment-614809 614809
Invest at your own risk.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:07:19 -0400
Invest at your own risk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153540-s-p-500-target-reached?source=feed#comment-614790 614790
The consumer will continue retrenching with lower income. Furthermore, savings should continue to rise getting closer to the 10% mark in order to rebalance household wealth.

The process will take several years. Anyone believing otherwise should study historical precedents.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:02:40 -0400
The consumer will continue retrenching with lower income. Furthermore, savings should continue to rise getting closer to the 10% mark in order to rebalance household wealth.

The process will take several years. Anyone believing otherwise should study historical precedents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152511-morning-briefing-testing-the-highs?source=feed#comment-608564 608564
Stay tuned and flat waiting to short this madness.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:55:10 -0400
Stay tuned and flat waiting to short this madness.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152374-no-capex-recovery-yet?source=feed#comment-607698 607698
As it turns out, we were building just a house of cards. Now that the house is falling it will take years to rebuild a solid one.

Most corporations see some stability but no signs of a recovery yet, but the stock market is somoking high quality grass and betting that we will grow at 5% soon. Dream on.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:40:02 -0400
As it turns out, we were building just a house of cards. Now that the house is falling it will take years to rebuild a solid one.

Most corporations see some stability but no signs of a recovery yet, but the stock market is somoking high quality grass and betting that we will grow at 5% soon. Dream on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152301-newsletter-writers-turning-a-little-more-bullish?source=feed#comment-607608 607608
If you want to preserve wealth stay away from stocks.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:34:13 -0400
If you want to preserve wealth stay away from stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152174-q2-earnings-growth-vs-estimates?source=feed#comment-607603 607603
Reality is screaming macro problems due to lower revenues. Lower earnings should follow down the road.

Withouth s sustainalbe source of demand, expect another economic dip. Stay healthy and away from stocks.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:28:45 -0400
Reality is screaming macro problems due to lower revenues. Lower earnings should follow down the road.

Withouth s sustainalbe source of demand, expect another economic dip. Stay healthy and away from stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152390-pimco-s-el-erian-believes-the-rally-will-not-last?source=feed#comment-607600 607600
Clearly the equiyt players are smoking something here, with total disregard to fundamentals.

Stay tuned as the correction could get nasty given the ridiculous overvaluation.

There is no revenue growth, no stable souce of incremental demand and savings continue to go up.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:16:01 -0400
Clearly the equiyt players are smoking something here, with total disregard to fundamentals.

Stay tuned as the correction could get nasty given the ridiculous overvaluation.

There is no revenue growth, no stable souce of incremental demand and savings continue to go up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152416-preview-from-europe-market-holds-up-well-despite-newsflow?source=feed#comment-607598 607598
I am not sure what are the equity guys smoking, but as at the end of 2007 they will find their match in the months ahead.

Forget about earnings, it is lower revenues that is screaming further reductions in earnings. Normalilzed PE ratios signal an S&P extremely expensive.

]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:11:09 -0400
I am not sure what are the equity guys smoking, but as at the end of 2007 they will find their match in the months ahead.

Forget about earnings, it is lower revenues that is screaming further reductions in earnings. Normalilzed PE ratios signal an S&P extremely expensive.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152098-wall-st-main-st-at-odds-over-the-recovery?source=feed#comment-607165 607165
Investors are in for a nasty surprise. The theme is very clear, companies are making money but with significantly lower revenues and a future that is not set to improve.

Unless Martians start consuming things, then equities will sell of rather significantly.]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:23:49 -0400
Investors are in for a nasty surprise. The theme is very clear, companies are making money but with significantly lower revenues and a future that is not set to improve.

Unless Martians start consuming things, then equities will sell of rather significantly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103438-ford-celebrates-gm-scratches-its-head?source=feed#comment-297830 297830 Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:31:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99265-seeking-the-fix-that-will-finally-work?source=feed#comment-278389 278389
He needs to just do it. Period. Then the market wil respect him.

Him and Bernanke started the crisis of confidence the day they failed to protect Lehman creditors.

Something will work at some point or people will see no point in selling. All I know is that today we are closer than yesterday to that point]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:05:20 -0400
He needs to just do it. Period. Then the market wil respect him.

Him and Bernanke started the crisis of confidence the day they failed to protect Lehman creditors.

Something will work at some point or people will see no point in selling. All I know is that today we are closer than yesterday to that point]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98704-cramer-dow-could-drop-another-14-oil-s-going-to-50?source=feed#comment-278278 278278 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 19:43:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99113-why-the-financial-markets-haven-t-responded?source=feed#comment-277550 277550 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 06:52:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99113-why-the-financial-markets-haven-t-responded?source=feed#comment-277549 277549
Longer term, I guess it would take a while for things to heal and for the excesses to be corrected. We have lived on borrowing since the 1980's and that is coming to an end.

There could be an generational dissapointement with equities heres.]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 06:50:55 -0400
Longer term, I guess it would take a while for things to heal and for the excesses to be corrected. We have lived on borrowing since the 1980's and that is coming to an end.

There could be an generational dissapointement with equities heres.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99127-ban-on-short-sale-ends-hold-your-breath?source=feed#comment-277547 277547
Everybody is saying that the end of the ban will create a sell off, maybe the oposite will happen as people realize that there are some bargains out there.

Evrybody was expecting a rally after the bailout package and look what happened.]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 06:40:07 -0400
Everybody is saying that the end of the ban will create a sell off, maybe the oposite will happen as people realize that there are some bargains out there.

Evrybody was expecting a rally after the bailout package and look what happened.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99113-why-the-financial-markets-haven-t-responded?source=feed#comment-277544 277544
The key here is that USD as a sign of confidence from foreign investors. Contrary to an emerging market crisis the dollar is going up for the most part telling us that money is coming to the U.S. The confidence for people to send money here will prove crucial to the healing.

On the contrary things are behaving rather well and three months from now we will view this is the greatest stock buying opportunity of the last few years.

I recommend that author to read about EM crisis in order to understand things a little better instead of running around like a headless chicken. ]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 06:31:50 -0400
The key here is that USD as a sign of confidence from foreign investors. Contrary to an emerging market crisis the dollar is going up for the most part telling us that money is coming to the U.S. The confidence for people to send money here will prove crucial to the healing.

On the contrary things are behaving rather well and three months from now we will view this is the greatest stock buying opportunity of the last few years.

I recommend that author to read about EM crisis in order to understand things a little better instead of running around like a headless chicken. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13432-microsoft-fined-by-the-eu-stock-implications?source=feed#comment-52850 52850
In this case the tree is not letting us see the woods -- This company is in front of a very strong product cycle that will increase EPS over the next few years.

Also, buybacks will continue to be acreetive --- remember with CF generation arroudn $1 billion or more per month they can reduce shares outstanding by 4 to 5% per year.

All in all you are talking about signifcant earnings and CF growth.]]> Thu, 13 Jul 2006 08:17:41 -0400
In this case the tree is not letting us see the woods -- This company is in front of a very strong product cycle that will increase EPS over the next few years.

Also, buybacks will continue to be acreetive --- remember with CF generation arroudn $1 billion or more per month they can reduce shares outstanding by 4 to 5% per year.

All in all you are talking about signifcant earnings and CF growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13295-microsoft-s-ipod-killer-emerges-should-apple-be-scared-you-bet-aapl-msft?source=feed#comment-52754 52754
Both of them are buy if you believe that their ideas would turn into profitable products. Yes MSFT will put pressure on AAPL but it would not sit still and it has the first mover advantage.

Also IPods have not yet become popular in emerging markets and hundreds of million of young customer can be tapped with low price products (which would still be highly profitable for AAPL.]]> Mon, 10 Jul 2006 14:16:23 -0400
Both of them are buy if you believe that their ideas would turn into profitable products. Yes MSFT will put pressure on AAPL but it would not sit still and it has the first mover advantage.

Also IPods have not yet become popular in emerging markets and hundreds of million of young customer can be tapped with low price products (which would still be highly profitable for AAPL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13307-gm-s-new-french-solution-not-such-a-hot-idea-gm?source=feed#comment-52753 52753 Mon, 10 Jul 2006 14:08:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/13307-gm-s-new-french-solution-not-such-a-hot-idea-gm?source=feed#comment-52751 52751
Most people are not assuming a merge, but some sort of collaboration. A few areas come to mind, procurement the first, sharing of parts and platforms the second and distribution the third.

At this point, nobody is thinking in pushing Wagoner out soon -- he will be used through the UAW negotiations next year and burnt in the process. In the meantime, something would have come out of the discussions with Renault-Nissan and they would be collaborating at some level. At the point (end of 2007) the plot gets thicker and Wagoner can be replaced by Carlos on some sort of uber (GM-Nissan-Renalt) role.

There is no magic bullet in the short run, but Wagoner after being at the helm for so long it is just a matter of time before he is gone -- before the end of 2007 without any doubt.]]> Mon, 10 Jul 2006 14:06:52 -0400
Most people are not assuming a merge, but some sort of collaboration. A few areas come to mind, procurement the first, sharing of parts and platforms the second and distribution the third.

At this point, nobody is thinking in pushing Wagoner out soon -- he will be used through the UAW negotiations next year and burnt in the process. In the meantime, something would have come out of the discussions with Renault-Nissan and they would be collaborating at some level. At the point (end of 2007) the plot gets thicker and Wagoner can be replaced by Carlos on some sort of uber (GM-Nissan-Renalt) role.

There is no magic bullet in the short run, but Wagoner after being at the helm for so long it is just a matter of time before he is gone -- before the end of 2007 without any doubt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12972-three-good-reasons-to-mistrust-thursday-s-rally-spy?source=feed#comment-52612 52612
I think you are basically right but the timing may take several weeks/couple of months to develop.

I have a rather cinical view of Bernanke and Co:
a) He spoke his mond and it spooked the markets
b) He was a little lost and then Japan one night went down 4% -- the Japanese got nervous, call the Europeans and together called Benanke. They agreed on a more bening tone to calm the markets.
c) Then he gave a speech that was a turning point for the markets and calmed things down -- that set the tone for the next rate move. Now the added bonus was the press release -- which led the stock market believe that things are rosy again.
d) He will realize that he was wrong in the next few weeks, maybe two months and you will hear the Fed with a hawkish tone again -- followed by 25 bps increases at thext two to three meetings. When the stock market realizes that, it will sell off again.

In the meantime, be long and enjoy the ride.

Best

JP]]> Mon, 03 Jul 2006 11:14:55 -0400
I think you are basically right but the timing may take several weeks/couple of months to develop.

I have a rather cinical view of Bernanke and Co:
a) He spoke his mond and it spooked the markets
b) He was a little lost and then Japan one night went down 4% -- the Japanese got nervous, call the Europeans and together called Benanke. They agreed on a more bening tone to calm the markets.
c) Then he gave a speech that was a turning point for the markets and calmed things down -- that set the tone for the next rate move. Now the added bonus was the press release -- which led the stock market believe that things are rosy again.
d) He will realize that he was wrong in the next few weeks, maybe two months and you will hear the Fed with a hawkish tone again -- followed by 25 bps increases at thext two to three meetings. When the stock market realizes that, it will sell off again.

In the meantime, be long and enjoy the ride.

Best

JP]]>