jmorace

S&P Tests May Lows

Hmmm, interesting point.

I have never seen a technical pattern so much bally-hooed. Bloomberg commentators, CAPS folks even CNBC anchor people are chattering away about neck lines and head and shoulders with such convincing authority. If this market tanks it will be the most discussed and predicted move I can remember.

Nice to see this could be a bear trap. It smells that way to me too. And today the market opens firm.

Well, we will see!

Fair Value for the S&P: It's Not 440

Ahhh. Fine, you can't value the market on it's earnings trough. Fine, fine, fine. But what are normalized earning? What will the "new normal" be? What kind of recovery is coming, and when? Oh, and is it every a 'normal' time? No time is normal, as much as you might like to forget about the backdrop when you look at 'stats.' This is what got the hedgies into so much trouble. Perhaps it's time to think a little more clearly.

Why China Can't Dump U.S. Treasuries

China can spend down its surplus on its own economic stimilus.

What's the Good of Hedge Fund Indexes and Fund of Funds?

Another great analysis, Mebane.

I am a dissatisfied investor in a Goldman Sachs fund of funds. I was always dubious of it, even from the stat, considering the giant fees being skimmed off the top, but besides that point, there is a key issue for individuals ignored by the peddlers of these 'investments.'

That is: tax consequence. A buy an hold investor is, of course, taxed only at the time of the sale of a security, and dividends are taxed at a 15% rate. Virtually all gains in my fund of funds, even in the best years, were taxed at full tilt boogie. So, the real net return to me never beat a municiple bond in the best years.

Am I alone in this? Have others have had positive experiences with fund of funds? I would love to hear about them.

Regards,

JMorace

Citi: Off the Banking Reservation

It's not a cave in if C gets an advantage over its 'competitors' as C will have the taxpayers cover the cram down loses but the other banks won't. It's just plain typical of the crony capitalism of these overwhelmingly large corporations. They need to be broken up. Dismantle them so that none are to big to fail and we wouldn't be faced with these gangsters holding us, the tax payers, hostage in the first place.

For capitalism to thrive there needs to be fair play. We are so far from that in the US that its hard to use the word 'capitalism' to describe what we've got going on even modified with "crony" or "gangster".

Look out below.

Bond Expert: Monday Wrap

High grade corporates seem to have rallied quite a bit. Do you think they still offer any value for the individual investor, especially in light of municiple bond prices?

Thanks for your thoughts.

jmorace

Short Sale Ban: Learning From Mistakes

The protracted liquidations of the '30s were partially the result of under regulated, over leveraged 'trusts' that worked in collaborative wolf packs eeriely like the hedge funds today that do so much of this collaborative shorting and whispering to each other about who is 'going down.'

So, it continues now, as it was at the time of the corrective wave of regulations in the '30s, to be in the interests of individual investors to have restrictions on institutional short sellers.

It is always in the interests of individual investors to have robust regulations that prohibit the nonsense of these rumor mongering, tail-wagging, over-leveraged, cry-baby, self-important, big shots swinging other peoples money around. Remember, unlike individuals, there is no cost to them if they lose l money (they can get another job in a snap as they are considered "talent" on Wall Street), but great bonuses if they should luck out and make some.

The structural advantages of the institutional players must be reduced to allow the average guy to have a fiar shot. We are so far from that now --- America IS gangland Chicago.

Put the criminals in jail. Start over clean.

Why the Muni Bond Market Is in Decline

If TARP was worked as it was sold to us, MBIA and AMBAC would be bailed out and their guarantees would then be worth something. This would bring a lot of individual investors hording liquidity back into the market.

Without these guarantees, it's treacherous work to figure out the specifics of each muni bond and make a selection.

Too bad the boneheaded execs at MBIA and AMBAC weren't former Goldman employees, then they'd have all the money in the world from their pal Paulson.

Are Liquidations Profitable? Capital Crossing Preferred vs. HealthShares

ccpcn --
waddaya tink u tradn' here...... MO??? 'bout 2000 shares traded friday.
good luck chum!

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

Interesting article.

Aslo of note is that the credit markets are pricing in severe economic weakness. There is a mismatch between what they are saying to us, with some AAA corporates trading 600-700 basis points over treasuries.

To me that is already saying 550 - 600 is pretty certain. It takes time for a giant whale the global equity markets to get to their trough valuations during this adjustment. perhaps another year or two of downward action to do so.

just my thoughts,
jmorace

Julian Robertson: Some Buying, but Bearish on the Economy

Isn't if funny how all these bitter, shrill 'defecit hawk' while spendin' big republicans are already blaming all the emergency actions of Bush on Obama?? Jeez, they can't see reality for their blinding ideology. No wonder we're where we are today.

Decades of Negative Returns: A Long-Term Look at the Dow

Good points.

I remember in Jesse Livermoore's book about the 20s run up and subsequent crash, it ain't over until the big boys puke. We need to see panic selling from Calpers and Goldman and Citadel and Harvard. Not there yet.

Jmorace

Relax Basel II's Bank Capital Adequacy Requirements

This sounds like a great idea to me.

Although, many small/mid regional/domestic banks have very high loan quality standards and these folks can still get credit now (I think....) So, maybe it wouldn't help, but it can't hurt.

JMorace

Fear Creates Unexpected Bargain in CD Market

I looked, I can't fine 'em.

Inflation, Deflation and the U.S.-China Relationship

If only the Chinese were so insightful and focused. There are major imbalances in the Chinese economy too. There have to be. When you build up so quickly there are either too many roads going to the wrong place or too little electricity there. It's just impossible to plan it perfectly. I think this time next year we will be talking about massive dislocations in the Chinese economy. Remember when everyone gave god like business powers to the Japanese? Seems were doing it again here. Yes, I know, this time it's really, really different. We will see......