jmorace

S&P Tests May Lows

Hmmm, interesting point.

I have never seen a technical pattern so much bally-hooed. Bloomberg commentators, CAPS folks even CNBC anchor people are chattering away about neck lines and head and shoulders with such convincing authority. If this market tanks it will be the most discussed and predicted move I can remember.

Nice to see this could be a bear trap. It smells that way to me too. And today the market opens firm.

Well, we will see!

Fair Value for the S&P: It's Not 440

Ahhh. Fine, you can't value the market on it's earnings trough. Fine, fine, fine. But what are normalized earning? What will the "new normal" be? What kind of recovery is coming, and when? Oh, and is it every a 'normal' time? No time is normal, as much as you might like to forget about the backdrop when you look at 'stats.' This is what got the hedgies into so much trouble. Perhaps it's time to think a little more clearly.

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

Interesting article.

Aslo of note is that the credit markets are pricing in severe economic weakness. There is a mismatch between what they are saying to us, with some AAA corporates trading 600-700 basis points over treasuries.

To me that is already saying 550 - 600 is pretty certain. It takes time for a giant whale the global equity markets to get to their trough valuations during this adjustment. perhaps another year or two of downward action to do so.

just my thoughts,
jmorace