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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Taylor Swift > Apple [View article]
    Chris, when you write about AAPL, the quality of the comment stream is entirely different. Welcome to the neighborhood.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    Credit Suisse's analyst has $55.76 all in (2014). Goldman shows somewhat less. Either of those has much more credibility than your cited SA author in my opinion, but as I said, the snapshot of cost per barrel is never accurate. Expenses are paid in previous years, results are recognized years later. So you're seeing financial data in categories which are unrelated in time. And we haven't talked about the influence of hedges. You'll do whatever you like of course, but DNR is not a weak player in the E&P space (it really doesn't even belong in that category).
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    G&A and cost of capital are not included. You said production cost, which is a non-standard term. LOE expense is carefully defined, and will vary across regions and even wells. Only averages are included in presentations usually.

    Good luck finding the all-in numbers for any E&P. Analysts are all over the map on constructing that for any company given the time frames where capital is raised vs when cash flows are recognized.
    Jun 22, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Realty: 4% And Good For The Environment [View article]
    Do a fixed income piece on MO or KMI. I bet you get a bunch of views - and ... interesting... comments.
    Jun 22, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Realty: 4% And Good For The Environment [View article]
    Thank you for the article. Fixed income is virtually ignored on SA.
    Jun 22, 2015. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    See slides 16, 35-37 here. http://bit.ly/1I8AboR

    I have no idea how a $60 LOE could be constructed.
    Jun 21, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Pros And Cons [View article]
    Yes CPA, I agree that they are necessary to doing business but I think that they are much much less valuable to finance and investment decisions, unless very carefully vetted. I have had P&L responsibility at an operating level and have supplied forward projections of revenue, cost, and operating profit etc. Across my career these projections were often influenced by budget and sales targets that had nothing to do with the reality at the operations level. They were constructs developed in the C Suite.

    Even during my brief experience in the C Suite I wasn't able to stop this fiction (only change the process a little). It was one reason I decided to retire early. :))
    Jun 20, 2015. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Pros And Cons [View article]
    Sure, shedding brands is good if they indeed are "deadwood." But I don't believe that names like Duracell, Cover Girl, Max Factor, etc. qualify for that pejorative adjective. The failure of management to manage brand value should not reflect on the brand itself.

    I doubt Warren Buffet considered Duracell "deadwood," and looking at what happened to the relative price movement of Coty upon the announcement of the beauty product acquisition is instructive.

    Adding insult to mismanagement injury, the sales prices for these assets did not truly recognize their market value.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Pros And Cons [View article]
    Yes MM, and my experience finds that, in general, claims to sophistication are pretty nebulous. Present company excepted of course.

    Earnings estimate trends are very interesting in what they reveal about the accuracy of forward estimates. PG has not had a very good history. Here are the forward EPS numbers from 2012:

    2013 - $4.56
    2014 - $4.91
    2015 - $5.30
    2016 - $5.73

    Obviously prophecy is over rated. You see, the share price got to 25x because sophisticated investors believed these estimates.
    Jun 19, 2015. 10:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson And The Supplemental Income Approach [View article]
    Thanks for that primer (I think many know what tax deferred means), but my only observation was a dividend can be taxed at a higher rate. If one were to live solely off dividends produced in a traditional IRA account, s/he would be paying ordinary income rates. It's simply a point some may not have considered.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen - A Reasonably Priced Biotech [View article]
    It's not "a" tool, since several methods exist to calculate cost of equity (e.g. see http://bit.ly/1u2ifoN). That's why I invited you to share a more appropriate method (which apparently will subtract... something... from the cost of debt?). Who knows? Maybe you'll will a Nobel Prize like the CAPM method did...
    Jun 19, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson And The Supplemental Income Approach [View article]
    Actually, the highest tax rates for dividends are the ordinary income rates applied to withdrawals from tax deferred accounts. Whatever the source, the money is taxed as ordinary income.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson And The Supplemental Income Approach [View article]
    How about trading around a minimum position? Selling shares (whether the money is currently needed or not) when values exceed a predetermined range (I don't mean share price), and buying when they fall below such a range? Some of my longer term holds have varied 400% in size.
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen - A Reasonably Priced Biotech [View article]
    Other sources agree that the WACC is pretty close to what the author calculated, for instance, it's 5.75% here http://bit.ly/1InIFE4 (just close the pop-up, no log in required). Why not detail your calc for us?

    The biggest issue with the article is in price prediction using forward projections of current trends.
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omeros Is Undervalued, Omidria Shows Great Promise [View article]
    This comment is significant AND on topic enough to show up in multiple article comment threads?
    Jun 18, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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