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  • American Realty Capital Properties: Time To Risk A Position? [View article]
    No comments since late last year. No comments on ARCP since the November 2014 plunge. Draw your own conclusions.
    May 28, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Buying The Panic, This 9% MLP Yield Is Secure [View article]
    It would be wise to consider the competitive picture when the assets of the major producers are operated after being stripped of debt in bankruptcy.
    May 28, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why Crickets Can Be A Good Thing [View article]
    No, AD. But I think you should keep your theories secret for the sake of your reputation. :)

    Seriously, If you listen to several industry conference calls (esp the Q&A), you will hear that the drillers are indeed negotiating with customers, who are driving hard bargains. Speaking very broadly (some companies are in the position of having expiring contracts which require negotiation now), since there are still higher rates in effect, drillers are not yet accepting those deals in hopes of some oil price recovery.

    Publicly talking about negotiating positions would be pretty stupid.
    May 28, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is General Mills Worth The Premium? [View article]
    GIS TTM PE is more than 24x - near its all time high.
    GIS P/S at 2x is near its all time high.
    GIS P/B at more than 6x is near its all time high.

    Obviously, buying at this level is unwise unless you believe it will have a very high growth rate (something that management is not projecting). Growth trends are decelerating, and EPS, EBITDA, book value are negative over 12 months.

    I'm selling ITM and slightly OTM calls to lighten this position.
    May 28, 2015. 02:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why Crickets Can Be A Good Thing [View article]
    Sure. So do their competitors.
    May 28, 2015. 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don’t buy the head fake in offshore drillers, RBC says [View news story]
    padenw, NE is the ticker symbol for a listed equity. If you don't know that much, just open an account at Vanguard and buy into their index funds a little bit at a time.
    May 28, 2015. 01:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Crosetti, if you call someone dumb you should be sure of your own position, and it doesn't seem that you are aware of it's potential weaknesses in logic. At least, I hope you aren't - then you would just be unpleasant for fun.

    You have essentially repeated Pasqual's Wager. Did you know that? So over the centuries there have been many refutations to that position, which are not illogical (although I myself still agree with Blaise Pasqual).

    However, one of the most obvious problems with your argument is the assumption that investing will produce a positive result over 25 years. Sure it's a good assumption, but if you can entertain the thought that the world might end tomorrow, surely it isn't outside your capability to address the other unlikely thought as well?
    May 26, 2015. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Don't know what to say to you G, other than you speak like a lawyer. You seem to consistently miss the point of my comments here and elsewhere, as did the responses to 622. I'm in opposition to nothing except thinking I have nothing to learn. Oh, I suppose I also oppose that any perception of reality is always right (including my own).

    Speaking of which, it's too bad all the pension funds and endowment portfolios haven't caught on to the DGI method as espoused here on SA. They've paid good money for experts who not only under perform indexes, but haven't even learned that all you have to do is pick good stocks.
    May 26, 2015. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Welcome to the neighborhood 622. The pugnacity is often only exceeded by dogmatism.
    May 26, 2015. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    Rather than fighting about strategies, we should examine what are the assumptions upon which we base our conclusions.
    May 26, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Bellatrix Exploration Make A Comeback After Weak Q1 Results? [View article]
    It's not his fault you aren't reading this timely. SA limits access to these articles after a few weeks. Complain to them if you feel the urge.
    May 26, 2015. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Is Worth $34 [View article]
    Yes indeed, Zachawan. That is exactly what the author is doing. Further, he is denigrating using a 10 year DCF calculation when that is the standard method. Using a 10 year history (which includes the period prior to significant income contribution from fracking) shows a trough valuation based on commodity pricing. A low commodity price AND a financial crisis may produce a $34 share price, but I wouldn't bet on that outcome.
    May 25, 2015. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead, Merck And Achillion/J&J Square Off In An HCV 'Nuc'lear Showdown [View article]
    I agree Ptatty. I think GILD has around 2 years to really make hay, and then competitive pricing will change the margins a lot (if alternative therapies pan out as anticipated). Not to say that it will not still be very profitable for many years. Meanwhile, I'm very interested in what they do to prepare for this - I think they are also expecting a similar landscape based on their positioning thus far.

    Be this as it may, I have a lot of confidence in management based on their actions and commentary.
    May 25, 2015. 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Baxter Guidance Portending A Dividend Cut? [View article]
    Expected trade July 1.

    If so, I think the record date would be Friday, June 26. Don't quote me.
    May 25, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Baxter Guidance Portending A Dividend Cut? [View article]
    Fcfrag, I found nothing unclear about the company guidance. A 35% payout ratio for Baxter and roughly half that for Baxalta will certainly result in a lower dividend than the current 60% payout. Further, the announcements a year ago were clear that the biopharma spin out would be investing in growth and had a very different risk profile. See and There has been plenty of time to buy in or opt out of this strategy.

    BTW, I see in your comment the implication that divi growth investors achieve absolute certainty in other investments. Surely you don't mean that, right?
    May 24, 2015. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment