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Qniform

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  • Re-Examining My Bullish Thesis On Hershey [View article]
    I'd say it gets at least to $85. The real buy point would be at $70.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - A Significantly Overvalued Royalty Trust [View article]
    Thanks for the article. A question about methodology: since reported reserves are based on commodity price, did you calculate the increase in reserves that would be reported under your increased Natgas price hypotheses? Also, since SJT (like any royalty trust) does not any conduct operations, do you think the production decline rate might be due to decreased drilling by operators (thus not a depletion decline as assumed)?
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Panic For Pacific Drilling? [View article]
    Same home page link. Why not the original source?
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Panic For Pacific Drilling? [View article]
    Exactly CVC. QP has rebuffed offers before (at multiples of the current price), and I see more likelihood that they would be a source of capital or a go private deal (or asset sales) rather than selling out at a huge loss. Usually Bloomberg is more on the ball, but the article referenced had no credible reason, such as liquidity issues for Ofer or something.

    For the author, the link citation for the Greenblatt quote just lands at your site homepage - not a reference. That's somewhat deceptive.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A High-Yield, Low-Price Stock That's Traded In A Tight Range For 5 Years Is Great For My Immediate Income Stream [View article]
    "...now is a better time to give it a go..."

    Based on what? Your article listed 5 year metrics which should have resulted in a different payout history in order for your forward thesis to be at all reasonable. Since that did not happen, why would you rely on a different future?

    The $300mm "gift" from the government is 6% of revenue to supply a service no one else will offer because it doesn't make money. Hardly a reason for optimism.

    Disclosure: I'm long PIY
    Jun 28, 2015. 04:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part III [View article]
    I think the street rewards aggregators like ETE (look at Valeant), even though things can end up badly (look at ARCP). The fact is that when inorganic growth happens very quickly it is very hard to assess with traditional metrics. Look at the adjustments you had to make in this article, for instance.

    I really prefer a more focused business plan. To me, the diversity of operations is not a genuine plus unless real operational (not just just financial) synergies are demonstrated. For instance, the Geisner olefins plant uses WMB feedstock benefiting both supplier and user. The ACMP addition was extremely focused in their business both operationally and geographically. OTOH, I doubt the Sonocco stations have much to do with other ETE operations, and I see a sprawling enterprise - big for the sake of "diversity.".

    IMO, this is a similar issue to why the old conglomerate model was abandoned.
    Jun 28, 2015. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: It's Bases Loaded [View article]
    I thought I'd drop in to see who still has faith. A few of the same names posting.

    I had a short bet in the fall of 2013 which paid handsomely. It looks like there has been no money made on either side since then, unless someone has lucky swings. The definition of dead money.
    Jun 27, 2015. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part III [View article]
    The WMB assets in the Marcellus and Utica (along with interstate capacity to the GoM) dwarf ETP/SXL positions. That is why WMB is a much more valuable player than ETE and its subs - and why ETE is hot to merge.

    From my perspective, I liked WMB and chose it over ETE. The combination becomes quite complex, and adds little payoff benefit to my macro thesis re: nat gas in the Northeast. I like a tighter focus.
    Jun 27, 2015. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle: Outpacing The Competition In Cloud [View article]
    You may like the growth, but on a percentage basis cloud revenue and profits are very small. The investment argument on this basis is thus entirely dependent on execution and marketplace acceptance. It is by no means assured. Nevertheless, I'm long ORCL.
    Jun 27, 2015. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairness Opinion #3: The Williams Companies' Shareholders Should Have Taken It [View article]
    Thanks Dutch. I had been going by their pro-forma org chart which lists the new holdco (ETC) as an LP. I suppose their statement takes precedence.
    Jun 27, 2015. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Sell-Off Creates Attractive Entry Price In Gramercy Property Trust Shares [View article]
    I'm also long GPT (having bought when the current team took over), and using the recent weakness to get longer. Despite large gains so far, I quite agree that the incentives align management's interest with mine and I fully believe they and I will see the maximum payoff levels.

    The timing of the move into Eurozone is good, IMO, and will provide a catalyst for increased valuations when they spin the unit, and when their management fees begin to flow. So far, I'm very impressed with Dugan et al.
    Jun 27, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairness Opinion #3: The Williams Companies' Shareholders Should Have Taken It [View article]
    Great comment User128. It spoke for itself, even without the expert verification provided by the CV. :)
    Jun 27, 2015. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairness Opinion #3: The Williams Companies' Shareholders Should Have Taken It [View article]
    ENB could play if they wanted to. There would be some great synergies in the Northeast, and with the current pipes it would give a route to Canadian product to the GoM independent of any approval process on Keystone. I would love to see this over the ETE deal.
    Jun 27, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Has Stability Finally Come? [View article]
    Josh, it's refreshing for someone to own up to a bad decision - we all make them. My advice to you is not to sell at this point. While downside risk is not eliminated, in an increased commodity price environment there would be some share price recovery. Meanwhile, the lenders are playing ball and there should be at least some level of continued distribution barring a re-test of commodity price lows.

    I'd also suggest you pay attention to commenters like RLP2451, who are quite knowledgeable in this space.
    Jun 27, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Investment Bank Underwrites 13% Of IPOs And Pays A Growing 5.76% Dividend [View article]
    I think it's important to note the recent reorganization into a limited partnership. http://tinyurl.com/ow7...

    I am currently long only the preferred (there have been some nice entry points).
    Jun 27, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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