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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    I'm not arguing. I saw a contradiction in the news release. You made a remark that (while accurate) was not germane to my observation.

    "Credit Suisse assumes coverage at Outperform on some E&P stocks: EOG, EPE, PXD, DNR, APC, DVN."

    "Assumed coverage at Neutral: APA, DNR"

    I noted that CS has a simultaneous 'Hold' and 'Outperform' rating on the same stock. I doubt they intended to say that. If you can't see that point, I don't know what to say, but you're right - at a minimum this discussion is pointless.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    I agree, but it's quixotic to spend much time thinking that small shareholders will change that. If it is so distracting, it's much healthier to move on and find management that you trust.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxalta: A Rare Undervalued Biopharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I went long BAX shortly after the spin-off announcement because I believe that the structure will unlock significant value, but I'm rather surprised that an author with a dividend focus would choose to follow BXLT since their dividend yield will be quite low. I also don't anticipate a very high dividend growth rate since the rationale behind the spin was to free such capital for investment in growing their franchise. I do believe that this strategy will result in much better results than a return of capital to shareholders if properly executed.

    I also caution that the statement "The only negative for Baxalta is that it is a 'new' company - and therefore isn't as easy to analyze" isn't true, and that "newness" is not even the main risk. Their hemophilia revenue is subject to major competition from RHHBY and especially ALNY, not to mention BIIB. Still, I like their market position and strategy to protect share as well as diversify their franchises.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Beats Indexing; What Beats DGI? [View article]
    six, I'm surprised you don't curl your lip at academia like many DGI practitioners, and also that you aren't aware of the large body of research on the subject. Anyway, mean reversion (the basis for capturing alpha via re-balancing) is well documented e.g. here http://bit.ly/1VAbjM7.

    Dealing with cost is a valid issue as you note. One citation of approach here http://bit.ly/1VAbjM9.

    Let me note that I'm an "adherent" only to what works.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    I hope so Hector. I got longer today - but by increasing the stronger companies at the expense of the weaker. Admitted defeat on stuff like CHK (except for calls) and went longer stuff like OXY.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    <sigh> OK, then 'assumed' at BOTH outperform and neutral is an error. Don't ya think? Just read it again.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: A Strong Dividend Play At 20% Discount Right Now [View article]
    I can think of lots of reasons Bill. He might already be fully invested, right?

    Like, I'm happily married but I can admire a beautiful and talented lady when I see one.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    If you seek a better deal, there are a lot of other stocks.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    There's an error either in this report or the press release. DNR can't be initiated at both outperform and neutral.
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    An increase in the SIFI threshold seems to be coming - at least on a case by case basis. I think the market will view this positively. http://bit.ly/1JyDIZU
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analog Devices' Identity Crisis [View article]
    Thanks for the interesting article. I'll point out some disagreement I have, and some other conclusions from the data.

    1. I don't think the revenue and earnings synergies from the acquisition of Hittite are fully realized yet.
    2. Beyond the big communication networks, I think that small cell network base stations are a larger opportunity than analysts are modeling.
    3. I think automotive will be larger than modeled - assuming that industry remains relatively healthy in unit sales.
    4. Touch applications continue to grow across lots of products. There is a lot of potential growth there. Non traditional products (not just iWatch) and all the other Apple stuff are the tip of the iceberg. As for Apple, ADI has a chance to capture even more sockets there.

    As for valuation, I think that it's better to look at the ex-cash multiple. Depending on how conservative you want to be with forward earnings, that looks like less than 18x next year's fully diluted number. Given a good double digit growth rate that's pretty good. I'm adding today on this weakness, recognizing it could go lower, BUT this is a very predictable business historically - what better value is out there right now?
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: A Strong Dividend Play At 20% Discount Right Now [View article]
    I have to agree DGJ. And the metrics that count most - revenue and EPS growth - do not support a significant dividend growth rate unless the article's stated risk factors are ignored. There is no room for any underperformance.
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Beats Indexing; What Beats DGI? [View article]
    The yield on bonds is often cited alone. Obviously that is not the whole story, and misrepresents the part bonds (and other investments) can play in a portfolio. Surely anyone will agree that a 1% rate move is possible? Do you understand what impact even a 1/4% rate move has on the long bond?
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Beats Indexing; What Beats DGI? [View article]
    That is a good point Alan. I also have to say that studies comparing companies who pay dividends to those who don't is not a properly controlled study. The vast majority of companies who pay dividends are financially healthy enough to do so, whereas the list of companies who don't will include a great many companies who could not. A properly controlled study would compare companies who pay dividends with those who COULD but do not. I'm not aware of any such study. OTOH, I doubt that such data would be accepted by some on SA if it did not affirm their suppositions.
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ABB: Sailing Through Headwinds With A High Yield [View article]
    Great info EM.

    (Who was that masked woman?)
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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