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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    Thank you for that perfect example conkjc. It's an obvious truism that many seem to feel justifies a warm blanket of complacency. Of course it begs the question of how one can determine that a company is a great investment NOW, but we can simply look at history to determine that, right? Good luck.
    May 2, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    Zok, that's a pretty metaphysical comment, so I 'liked' it. There are many spokes to the hub, grasshopper. Of course assuming everything is a spoke is a mistake, right?

    Seriously, it helps to have someone like varan point out BS when it masquerades as something else here on SA. There's too much certainty and complacency, and the more experienced investors ought to consider the widows and novices who might follow their advice to destruction.
    May 2, 2015. 12:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    I agree Ptatty. It explains the available data, i.e. GILD price, management action thus far, continued competitor interest, etc. Competitive pressures do not end due to past deals.

    I predict that this will become a classic business school case study about the effects of competition on pricing and market share - even though the market is highly regulated it will be instructive.
    May 1, 2015. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Proves Golden: The Importance Of Its Beat-And-Raise Quarter [View article]
    Like I said, I'm long. But I see no need to gild the lilly. :))
    May 1, 2015. 11:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breo's Watershed Moment Unlikely To Rescue Glaxo [View article]
    I think GSK doesn't do the deal, it is the deal.
    May 1, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Proves Golden: The Importance Of Its Beat-And-Raise Quarter [View article]
    I appreciate the article, like I appreciate most SA contributors working essentially for free. The more arms length the tone, and the more circumspect the view the more valuable the article is to me. If an article looks more like an exercise in persuasion than analysis, the value is limited and it seems to affect the quality of the comment stream as well.

    I am long GILD with a much lower cost basis than the present price, and I'll remain long - but I'm not a buyer until there is more sign of a diversified income stream. There is an obvious risk due to unforeseen adverse events with the main income driver. Also, the obvious effects of competition should not be underestimated. The potentially negative consequences of patent and other litigation outcomes are being ignored. I really like GILD management, and what they have done over the past 20 years. I hope that they continue to execute, but they cannot control everything.
    May 1, 2015. 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West - Lenders Drive A Hard Bargain [View article]
    IMO, if oil is ~$65 in 6 months, PWE will be an ongoing turn around story. If not, it gets sold. I don't see management stringing things out for a pay check. The sales price would be significantly above present EV, based on their recent deal's metrics.
    May 1, 2015. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Apparently John Martin and Paul Carter don't get that "pricing is no longer an issue with third party payers" either.

    If ABBV and MRK can produce an equivalent probability cure for a patient - no matter how convenient (number of pills) or the duration of the treatment - the cost of that competition will impact GILD's ASP. It already has, hasn't it? The more competition (e.g. MRK and/or BMY), the more fluid the situation will become.

    Hasn't anyone here ever had the "medically necessary" discussion with an insurer? Conversely, if my insurer has Harvoni exclusively in its formulary, how much more will I be willing to pay for the coverage? What if my potential cure were to cost 10% of what Harvoni costs (to use an extreme example to make the point)? Even inferior competition has a big effect in business modeling.
    May 1, 2015. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Gross to net is not synonymous with discount. But the fact that people think it is is not why their comment was a mistake. Given the fact that there IS competition, it's too much of a window into how they construct their ASP.
    May 1, 2015. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Emerge Energy Services: Peak EBITDA, Peak Stock Price, Distribution Going To $0 [View article]
    A 33% borrow cost is just the beginning of the problems with this losing recommendation.
    May 1, 2015. 07:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo! Is Giving Itself Away [View article]
    Too funny Andreas. It sounds like my discussions with the kids re: Facebook.
    May 1, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Given that oncology is the largest market segment, I'd hope they look there, since that would greatly expand the range of potential opportunity overlap with existing focus (e.g. liver cancer treatment candidates).
    May 1, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Midnight Sun - Part 1 - Are You Ready? [View article]
    I sure wish you would stop the listing of ticker symbols which have only the remotest connection with your subject matter. It smacks of click harvesting.
    May 1, 2015. 02:20 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Owens & Minor Business Model Shift Not Being Priced In [View article]
    The trouble is figuring out the specifics. When I look at the consolidation so far it is on the distribution-to-consumer side, like the Optum, Catamaran, etc. roll-ups. Or like WBA and ABC partnership (probably a prolonged buy out). OMI is a B2B operation.

    Who sells to hospitals, larger medical groups, etc.? Or who wants to vertically integrate a big operation? IDK if there is such an animal.
    May 1, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Allessandro & DTMM I think you have identified the reason for the potential price inefficiency. While there's a track record and fair level of comfort re: the HIV portfolio, HCV is very much in flux with competition since no matter how "convenient," a cure is a cure and any competition will radically change the ASP landscape (as we have already begun to see). I think any early pipeline (i.e. pre-phase 3) is not in even view given the huge valuation range depending on HCV market picture over the next 3 years.

    Using an analogy, think of the difficulty developing VTOL aircraft. The transition from one mode to the other is very difficult.

    Excellent comment thread.
    May 1, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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