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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Take Profits In Analog Devices Ahead Of Q3 Earnings [View article]
    I'm glad I traded into a larger position today. Instant 5%. Selling after hours with the result that my cost basis is nicely lowered.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    It will be interesting how any competing offer could be made, since Energy Transfer has locked up many of the investment banking relationships in this deal. http://reut.rs/1M5OECX
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    The reason I bring it up was that the offer occured when the acquiring stock was $64/sh (as I recall). ETE has never traded there, but ETP has.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    ETP would simply be the new 60% owner/GM. No different than WMB currently.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    Gabby, I think it was ETP, not ETE.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    An SE/WMB merger is very much more desirable than the ETP combination. But I think it is subject to more antitrust scrutiny, since such a large percentage of East coast interstate pipe would be owned.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When Dividend Aristocrats Are Getting Ripe To Pick, Start Picking! [View article]
    <Of course that is why the author pointed out that these negatives...>

    I must have read a different article.

    But thank you for engaging in rational discussion rather than perceived slights and arguments about rhetoric.
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 56% Annual Return With LRR [View article]
    That's the trouble MS. Chris, given the fact VNR can move 40% down in weeks, a hedge would seem prudent. As another commenter noted, the VNR borrow is tough. Any ideas how to size a hedge with puts?
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Low P/E Stock Of The Day No. 15: The AES Corporation [View article]
    Thanks 2T2T. The comment provided the benefit to the click.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When Dividend Aristocrats Are Getting Ripe To Pick, Start Picking! [View article]
    woppenhe, nowhere do I suggest that past results play no role. If you look at my comment, I denigrate the relevance of a historical period that has NO connection to the current environment. As for the hair-splitting about the word "guarantee" in the FINRA advisory, I simply note when "undue reliance" (this is forward looking statement advisory language) is placed on past results. You yourself mention the word "forever" when talking about dividends below. If it looks, walks, and quacks like a duck...

    To set the record straight, I'm long JNJ. I'm not buying here based on valuation and headwinds which are apparent (but not really discussed in this article). As for what I consider to be relevant past information are the following annualized trends:

    10 yr revenue growth - 4.70%
    5 yr revenue growth - 3.30%
    1 yr revenue growth - (.9%)

    10 yr EBITDA growth - 4.30%
    5 yr EBITDA growth - 3.50%
    1 yr EBITDA growth - 7.90%

    10 yr EPS growth - 4.80%
    5 yr EPS growth - 4.10%
    1 yr EPS growth - 5.20%

    10 yr FCF growth - 5.0%
    5 yr FCF growth - 0%
    1 yr FCF growth - (13.30%)

    This history is mostly relevant as to trends, and shows how the company is VERY different now vs. the excellent results prior to 2000. IMO, the reason I hold JNJ now has absolutely nothing to do with anything from that prior era. And as seen in the results above, it is not really a stellar idea right now either unless one has a very limited expectation for results (like, say getting 3% in dividends). So why do I hold it?

    Alex Gorsky, CEO since 2012, brought in a new operations head (Sandra Peterson) to make some major changes. In pharma they have refocused R&D on big segments like anti-coagulants and oncology. In medical products they exited the stent business bought Synthes. They also seem to have improved QC on implants, and we haven't seen any more inexcusable recalls of dangerous products - remember children's Tylenol, Motrin, Zyrtec and Benadryl? This is my take on JNJ. I think it is a realistic take on its questionable performance trend, along with a reason to think it could get better. No doubt it is relatively stable in any case if one's expectations are low.

    It's quite discouraging to run into the defensive reactions I see if I suggest that some assumptions might be unwarranted. Worse, I see a belief that the future will replicate the past with respect to dividends (I suppose someone else will again quibble about the meaning of guarantee, as though that is some esoteric distinction).
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RSO Preferred Stock - Why Did It Decline Recently? Consider This 10%+ Yielder [View article]
    You can always answer that question by viewing the Form 4 filings themselves here - http://1.usa.gov/1pcVfP6

    The trades I mentioned were all direct, open market.
    Aug 16, 2015. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RSO Preferred Stock - Why Did It Decline Recently? Consider This 10%+ Yielder [View article]
    The CEO owns 1.974 million shares (after the recent 250k share purchase). The CFO owns 206k shares (after his recent 15K purchase). The EVP owns 332K shares (after his recent 40k share purchase). None have sold over the past two years. While I don't place much credence in some insider positioning, these seem to be more than window dressing.
    Aug 15, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When Dividend Aristocrats Are Getting Ripe To Pick, Start Picking! [View article]
    RS, it was no more an attack than was your reply to sheepdip. Please don't think it was. It was a response to your forward looking application of historical results. Unless you were NOT saying that JNJ is a superior choice by virtue of these past results...? In any case, prediction of the future is typically called prophesy. I wouldn't label any of this innuendo.

    Did you not mean that you consider 53 years of history relevant and predictive? It is not unreasonable to posit that any history prior to the current market environment, board of directors composition, management tenure, etc. would have very limited relevance to the future. The 1960s through the 1990s would have to be compared in some way to the present in order to make such a claim.

    BTW, even when management projects results for the next few months, they issue a forward looking warning. I think many are so used to hearing it that they forget why it is necessary. Statements like yours underline the importance of remembering it.
    Aug 15, 2015. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When Dividend Aristocrats Are Getting Ripe To Pick, Start Picking! [View article]
    Explain how you can violate the FINRA warning with impunity? You know, the little disclaimer about the predictive power of past results? Or maybe you are a prophet, sir?
    Aug 15, 2015. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Debt Level Should Scare You [View article]
    You should probably consider free cash flow, which is 1/4 of the dividend. Worse, levered free cash flow is negative.

    Of course, they are in transition right now, and going forward should be using lots of tax credits that used to belong to KMP shareholders. I'm looking forward to seeing how all that shakes out.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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