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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Kinder Morgan - Buy It After The Recent Crash [View article]
    FERC only sets prices on interstate pipes.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan - Buy It After The Recent Crash [View article]
    You're just a 'glass half full' kind of guy. :)
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Play The Spreads On American Refineries [View article]
    Thank you for a great article. I time my trades around the Brent - WTI differentials when other factors align as well.

    I would caution you that oil price is important, such as when a rapid downward movement in oil prices occurs. This can result in large write downs since refiners don't generally hedge inventory.

    Long HFC and PBF.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan - Buy It After The Recent Crash [View article]
    Lots of articles were saying precisely the same thing at a $44+ share price. I was selling via covered calls. Remember, this 20% correction is around 5 years of dividends.

    If there is sufficient volatility, I'll sell puts with a $30 or lower strike. Right now SE is a much better value.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - A Significantly Overvalued Royalty Trust [View article]
    Of course this has been a good short along with every other name connected with the energy space, but the author has not answered my question. Valuation based on reserves is fine, but reserve amounts change based on commodity pricing.

    They also change based on engineer estimates. McDep noted this a few weeks back:

    "Rechecking past reports for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) for the past twenty years, for example, we see that cumulative production for 1995-2014 plus remaining reserves at the end of 2014 is more than double estimated reserves at the beginning of 1995."

    I have found this to be a pattern with many royalty trusts. The bucket stays full much longer than the conservative engineer estimates project.

    I have no current position in SJT. I have a very long term position in DMLP, and recently bought back some CRT (having sold ~$33). I'm looking to buy back SBR if it hits ~$33.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    I'm not arguing. I saw a contradiction in the news release. You made a remark that (while accurate) was not germane to my observation.

    "Credit Suisse assumes coverage at Outperform on some E&P stocks: EOG, EPE, PXD, DNR, APC, DVN."

    "Assumed coverage at Neutral: APA, DNR"

    I noted that CS has a simultaneous 'Hold' and 'Outperform' rating on the same stock. I doubt they intended to say that. If you can't see that point, I don't know what to say, but you're right - at a minimum this discussion is pointless.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    I agree, but it's quixotic to spend much time thinking that small shareholders will change that. If it is so distracting, it's much healthier to move on and find management that you trust.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxalta: A Rare Undervalued Biopharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I went long BAX shortly after the spin-off announcement because I believe that the structure will unlock significant value, but I'm rather surprised that an author with a dividend focus would choose to follow BXLT since their dividend yield will be quite low. I also don't anticipate a very high dividend growth rate since the rationale behind the spin was to free such capital for investment in growing their franchise. I do believe that this strategy will result in much better results than a return of capital to shareholders if properly executed.

    I also caution that the statement "The only negative for Baxalta is that it is a 'new' company - and therefore isn't as easy to analyze" isn't true, and that "newness" is not even the main risk. Their hemophilia revenue is subject to major competition from RHHBY and especially ALNY, not to mention BIIB. Still, I like their market position and strategy to protect share as well as diversify their franchises.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Beats Indexing; What Beats DGI? [View article]
    six, I'm surprised you don't curl your lip at academia like many DGI practitioners, and also that you aren't aware of the large body of research on the subject. Anyway, mean reversion (the basis for capturing alpha via re-balancing) is well documented e.g. here http://bit.ly/1VAbjM7.

    Dealing with cost is a valid issue as you note. One citation of approach here http://bit.ly/1VAbjM9.

    Let me note that I'm an "adherent" only to what works.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    I hope so Hector. I got longer today - but by increasing the stronger companies at the expense of the weaker. Admitted defeat on stuff like CHK (except for calls) and went longer stuff like OXY.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    <sigh> OK, then 'assumed' at BOTH outperform and neutral is an error. Don't ya think? Just read it again.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: A Strong Dividend Play At 20% Discount Right Now [View article]
    I can think of lots of reasons Bill. He might already be fully invested, right?

    Like, I'm happily married but I can admire a beautiful and talented lady when I see one.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    If you seek a better deal, there are a lot of other stocks.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse upgrades energy E&P sector [View news story]
    There's an error either in this report or the press release. DNR can't be initiated at both outperform and neutral.
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp Is A Safe Investment [View article]
    An increase in the SIFI threshold seems to be coming - at least on a case by case basis. I think the market will view this positively. http://bit.ly/1JyDIZU
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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