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Qniform

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  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    BXE's total debt/total equity is higher than PWE - which at .29 is not at all outrageous in the industry. Most US shale players and even some large E&Ps are much higher. In the short term I don't think that PWE has any trouble renegotiating with debt holders. The question is cost, and how assets may be assigned as collateral. You want a debt horror show, look at EXXI.

    I'm long stock and calls in PWE. Stock only in BXE and EXXI. These are among the risk names on my barbell.
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charlie Brown's Under The Radar $10 REIT Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for the article Brad. Re: Farmland Partners - as much as I wanted to like this REIT (I consider the asset to be very stable, albeit income variable), I just can't warm up to management here. Lots of tech and construction background for the CEO, CFO, and BoD but little in the way of agriculture experience. What made you select this one?

    So far, the best farm REITs I've found are non-traded, and have investment minimums above the amount I want to deploy.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National-Oilwell Varco - Time To Cut And Run? [View article]
    There was an argument? After all was said and done the conclusion was wait to buy, or hold if owned already. Probably sound advice, albeit weakly presented.
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Retirees Invest In Financials? S&P 500 2015: Part 4B [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Chuck. For the banks, maybe some notation like "N/A" in the debt to cap column would be appropriate since 0% seems like a reported value.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Retirees Invest In Financials? S&P 500 2015: Part 4B [View article]
    Chuck, thanks for all the neat graphics and pasted S&P descriptions. One caution and a couple corrections: the debt to cap column is just about meaningless for many financials since their debt-like liabilities may not show up on typical screens like Fast Graphs (this applies to all the Banks listed). For instance, Public Storage shows 1% debt to cap, but that ignores their issuance of cumulative preferred stock to finance deals. Finally, CME Group's dividend shows 4.5% dividend, but it is 2.1% in reality.

    Is the point to try to buy stocks having a line in a particular color section of a Fast Graphs chart?
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Still Missing Production Goals [View article]
    Thanks for the article. While I agree that divestitures of flowing barrels may fetch reduced prices, the Grand Isle system will probably sell for a good price. Recent infrastructure sales are attracting bid competition (e.g. EFS Midstream). As for the covenants - since so many companies are in similar situations it seems likely that lenders would play ball (for a while at least). But that will likely cost money too.

    EXXI is a risky play on the price of oil IMO, with potential gains or losses much higher than moves in the commodity. Good luck to all.
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Offshore Market And How To Make Your Seadrill Position Pay [View article]
    "Rolling has a big transaction cost."

    Get another broker - at least for options. Or trade large numbers of contracts...
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Offshore Market And How To Make Your Seadrill Position Pay [View article]
    surf, I find it refreshing to hear someone discuss these issues without whining, calling for management terminations, threats of lawsuits, reports to the SEC, etc. Bravo.
    Feb 8, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On National Oilwell Varco [View article]
    Some facts:

    * NOV had $21.4 billion 2014 revenue (decide for yourselves where that number will end up going forward)

    * Rig Systems totaled about half of that amount. Of that ~$10 billion, about $1.5 billion was an aftermarket category included in this reporting segment (these dollars are much stickier through a down cycle). I have not seen a precise breakdown, but the graphics presented look like land is about 25% and offshore is about 75% of the remaining $8.5 billion.

    * The next biggest segment is Wellbore technologies at $5.7 billion. IMO, this is where the "moat" resides (along with top drive systems), but anyone who thinks you can get wellbore independent of the rest of the NOV tech offerings (economically anyway) is dreaming. This stuff is a package.

    * The next largest segment is Completion and Production at $4.6 billion. IMO this segment will be slower to decline to the extent that customers are hedged, and reluctant to shut in wells (after all, drilling is a sunk cost).

    * Finally there is the overall Aftermarket segment at $3.2 billion. As noted above, ongoing supplies are a "stickier" category.

    This is the snapshot of the environment when the commodity price justifies investment in drilling. We can guess about what the future holds, but no one is sure. At least these numbers are more than vague statements about how important, or competitive, or moat like NOV is, or what segments are important, etc.

    I am recently long NOV, and continuing to get longer. I expect that crude could see another new low - and (less likely) another new low after that. It's also possible the bottom is in. Bottom line, I agree with the view that patience is warranted AND the view that NOV is a good buy right now.
    Feb 8, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Offshore Market And How To Make Your Seadrill Position Pay [View article]
    surf, the article proposed lowering the original 50 share cost basis to $15 by purchasing 178 shares.
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Realty Income, And Where I Reinvested The Proceeds [View article]
    waldipup, one of the considerations for coal companies is how much thermal vs. metallurgical coal they sell. Believe it or not, it is largely the latter's price implosion (due mainly to slack China growth) that has led to coal industry woes. I think you're right that neither use will disappear, but US coal will have to be used locally (not exported) since international supply sources have very large mining and shipping cost advantages. Just some input for research.
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On National Oilwell Varco [View article]
    Thanks for the article. A couple of points:

    NOV business is across both land and offshore and is international in scope. They are indeed exposed to commodity price and their earnings will be significantly impacted. So far, E&Ps are reporting negotiated 20%-25% cost reductions with suppliers (I assume like NOV).

    Having said that, unless you believe that this price environment is going to last longer than a couple years, NOV is now entering the price range where it will make very good returns over time.

    One comment mentioned the intangibles on the balance sheet. While goodwill can simply evaporate if a deal was overpriced, intangibles can actually represent what Warren Buffet looks for in a company (he obviously bought NOV high). Check out the customer list - those relationships have a great deal of value, do they not? The name Coca Cola is an intangible after all.
    Feb 7, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Realty Income, And Where I Reinvested The Proceeds [View article]
    True enough waldipup, if you think it is merely a cyclical issue with coal. I think it is more like a secular/structural change (in North America anyway) - like the buggy whip industry 100 years ago. Trying to pick a good stock in a dying industry adds an unnecessary challenge IMO.
    Feb 7, 2015. 12:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strengthening U.S. Dollar Presents Remarkable Foreign Opportunities - GlaxoSmithKline [View article]
    "Pfizer sited foreign exchange (FX) rates..."

    I recommend a sitation for language misuse.
    Feb 7, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Realty Income, And Where I Reinvested The Proceeds [View article]
    I don't argue with selling O over $50 - I've sold it over $52 twice now, and buy again at $40 and below. What I can't understand is buying coal! Crazy.
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:08 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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