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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Why I'm Passing On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    I reach precisely the same conclusion. Great minds thinking alike, CPA. Good luck to you.
    May 18, 2015. 12:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Citigroup Has Left A Bad Taste In Investors' Mouths And How It Can Change [View article]
    I love C. I made soooo much in mid to late 2008, before congress and the exchanges slammed the door on short sales in financials. But the experience does taint my ability to ever view them as a good long candidate. Stick with WFC, USB, or the Canadians. It's hard for the leopard to change its spots.
    May 17, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Goes The Kinder Morgan Route, Higher Dividends Ahead [View article]
    AllStreets, I actually see ~3.2% ROIC and ~7.3% WACC. But this is pre MLP roll-up, and these pipelines are strange financial animals with the depreciation wiggle room. Yours is a good question, but WMB (and SE) is much better off than some due to an emphasis on moving nat gas.
    May 17, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Piling On Andrew Witty [View article]
    The comparison to make re: these issues is probably AZN. Everyone knew about their "patent cliff," lack of pipeline, and the future revenue declines 7 years ago. I think their history can be instructive in looking at most of the aspects of GSK business discussed here.
    May 17, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Passing On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    I agree. But there's a problem. The peak to trough percentage loss from 1999 to 2000 for PG was 48%. There are at least a couple of other 20%-25% pull backs since 1987, and that is all that's needed for the $60 handle comment I responded to.

    I am not reaching a conclusion - I was questioning an assumption. Now I'll question yours about the frequency of these oscillations being "generational." I don't question purchasing stock in spite of these facts - I just recognize them.

    Nouriel Roubini won a Nobel Prize showing how these black swan events are entirely misunderstood. My general impression based on interactions on Seeking Alpha is that this is still true.
    May 17, 2015. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Passing On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Probably misplaced confidence. The peak to trough percentage loss 2007-2009 was 35%. Apply that to current pricing and it's $52.
    May 17, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MRC Global: Look Beyond The Upstream Trouble [View article]
    Very nice work. Perhaps the only missing piece is the debt maturity profile. IMO, leverage concerns are the reason for the valuation difference with DNOW.
    May 17, 2015. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    Do him a favor and recommend an account at Interactive Brokers.
    May 17, 2015. 01:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    I guess I do "conflate" these ideas since they are inherent in the definition of a portfolio.http://bit.ly/1GcDhIe. These objectives are common to everyone, aren't they? I have no idea why this topic should subject to such obscuration and fretful discussion. Anyway, good luck.
    May 16, 2015. 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can American National Bankshares Earn $2 A Share? [View article]
    I'm long AMNB, but not so thrilled. I'm not so sure what you meant by your citation of ROA and ROE - but those metrics indicate the reason the valuation multiples are poor IMO.
    May 16, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    <Tricky to judge without more context.>

    Huh? Just about every DGI article I read speaks of portfolio strictly in terms of equities and the income they provide. And conclude that history justifies the lack of concern for draw down. And it seems that anytime I (or anyone else) mentions what we are saying right here in this thread it gets unfriendly pretty quickly. That's a lot of context.

    I've seen your comments on articles where this happens (not saying you take the positions I describe), so I'm not sure why you are surprised by my observation.
    May 16, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    Kudos. That's an extremely rare understanding here on SA.
    May 16, 2015. 01:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied World Offers A Healthy Balance Sheet, But Market Conditions Are Tough [View article]
    It's not easy to analyze the potential benefits of these mergers. How the individual clients and general risk profiles overlap is pretty opaque to me. It's certainly not as easy as other industries to ID synergies and potential cost savings.
    May 15, 2015. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    TF17, that is certainly true as long as life cooperates. OTOH, I know people who experienced liquidity needs at the worst times in the investment cycle. I think there is probably too little focus on the potential for personal "black swan" events in portfolio designs that are almost 100% equities.
    May 15, 2015. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: The 'Tragedy' Of Paying 17 Times Earnings [View article]
    The projected growth rate of a $280 billion company should not be assumed to be comparable to the growth rates it experienced historically when it was at a different stage of maturity. Compare 10 yr growth rates with 5 yr rates and a deceleration is obvious. The presumed continuation of past performance is problematic.
    May 15, 2015. 09:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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