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  • Paragon Offshore: Classic Spin-Off With High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Saving the 15% qualified dividend tax covers a lot of commission.
    Aug 9 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: Classic Spin-Off With High Dividend Yield [View article]
    So you believe he was responsible for 1) the crash in nat gas prices that initially slowed GOM drilling, and 2) the complete moratorium on GOM drilling by the present administration in Washington after the BP disaster?

    I guess the NE board doesn't agree with you.
    Aug 8 06:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Show Me The Money: The Perils Of REIT ETF Investing [View article]

    Or better

    The main question empirically is what re-balance interval is best. Incidentally, all this is just another back test of a theory. I've been using a modified momentum approach in one of my accounts. Jury is out.

    My advice is to suspect pattern system efficacy. They never work in Vegas, so what makes us think they work anywhere else?
    Aug 5 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Show Me The Money: The Perils Of REIT ETF Investing [View article]
    Some indexing strategies are better than others. The cap weighted index is at an inherent disadvantage, where an equal weight index (like the Guggenheim funds) will adjust by selling high and buying low. There are other interesting index modifications that can outperform as well. No good options in REIT land yet AFAIK.
    Aug 4 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Is Chopped Down Again After Earnings [View article]
    A rather muddled review. If you wanted to sell, you should have done so after the split, where the pair traded close to $50 pre-split value. I'll continue to hold these generational assets. Forests don't grow overnight.
    Aug 4 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
    Thanks - that is my take as well. I like Chile over other SA economies, but not that much. Of course your position is much larger than mine... :))
    Aug 2 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
    Hi Chris. Are you out of PVD? Any thoughts on holding it as the ADR delists and goes native to 15 shares on the Santiago Bolsa? On 8/1 it traded at 3420 CLP (about $89.45), which is a few dollars less than the currency translated ADR price of ~$91 on the same date (0.00174367 CLP to $1).
    Aug 2 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cimatron: High-End Software Company On Deep Value Metrics [View article]
    Based upon the financial metrics CIMT is a buy today. I think that the evaluations I see that assert issues about product quality or other competitive issues are not really borne out by the numbers. ROA, ROE, margins, cash flow, etc. are consistently great. By any real empirical evaluation a price target in that range is silly. Stock prices can do all kinds of odd things, but the cited reasons for the target are not tenable based on actual results.
    Aug 2 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are The Digital Shorts Now? [View article]
    The confusion (which you acknowledged) about the financials is evidenced in your 7/11 comment which said "...but free cash flow covering the dividend is financially much stronger, though potentially at the expense of future growth." REITs do not fund growth from GAAP profits or cash flow. They issue equity or debt. It is this which makes analysis difficult and allows specious arguments by Highfields to work. Unfortunately, the figures you've added don't clear this up since results will only show up over much more time. DLR has been doing quite well over a long period.
    Aug 1 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Had A Tremendous Q2 2014, But Was It A Flash In The Pan? [View article]
    DW, thanks for a great article. The market reaction in various interest rate sensitive equities is likely overdone IMO. After all, if one averages the 1Q and 2Q GDP numbers the result is 1.45% YTD (-2.1% revised for 1Q and 4% for 2Q). Since the forecast for 3Q is ranging from mid 2% to low 3% the full year could likely end up at low 2% overall. That's not really a rate rise scenario, especially given the weakness in China, Euroland, South America, etc.

    I'm not so concerned about the TBA component as the article describes, but I'm far less conversant with the issues than you are. For those like me wishing to understand some of the issues better, this is a pretty informative paper.
    Jul 31 06:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Lobster Deal Be A Tipping Point For This Net Lease REIT? [View article]
    Assuming you sold and re-bought at the right price. Any reason to believe you can do that (since such ability is rare if it exists at all)?
    Jul 31 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are The Digital Shorts Now? [View article]
    Without going into lots of detail here, you would be well served to learn how GAAP reporting standards have some issues with regard to REITs and MLPs. There is a reason that different measures (AFFO, CAD, etc) are used.

    I second glorysk87's statement, since if you did read the SEC filings you wouldn't have the confusion.
    Jul 31 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cimatron: CAD/CAM Software Company At A Bargain Price [View instapost]
    It is just an incremental feature. Sandvik (the Adveon owner) is only a $12 billion company and I don't know how big a deal Adveon is.
    As you said, it is the larger value proposition that makes CIMT a interesting investment.
    Jul 31 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Noble's Current Industry Position And Its Forward Prospects [View article]
    Thanks for the overview. One caution I'd offer is that backlog is not the guaranteed revenue you seem to believe it is. Contracts may be cancelled, sometimes without much more than notice required. Simply do an internet search under "drilling contract cancelled" and you'll find numerous examples (including some for Noble). I'm sure Noble carried internal revenue projections with a decreasing multiplier the farther into the future it is supposed to be recognized. The only 100% certain revenue is that which is deposited in the bank.
    Jul 30 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Lobster Deal Be A Tipping Point For This Net Lease REIT? [View article]
    As an investor who bought during the carnage after the secondary offering I can't complain. I've exited half of the common position I held at a better than 12% gain in a month (I still hold a bigger position in the preferred). The larger concern is how to trust management statements when they clearly stated that such an offering was not going to happen. Investors in this space (and in MLPs as well) should expect secondaries and debt issuance as part of how growth occurs, and management should be clear about the metrics under which they will happen.

    It will be better if management gives that guidance or even just says nothing to influence expectations about the process.
    Jul 30 01:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment