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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Deep Water Drillers Set To Rise From The Depths [View article]
    You absolutely did say the U.S. government committed to lower production. It was a repeated main fundamental point. If you don't even admit to what you clearly said - still in writing above - what point is there to the conversation? It would be interesting to see a source for your new claim that the U.S. is buying discounted Saudi oil (the government only buys a fraction of oil imports you know). But never mind. I'm unchecking the follow box.
    Nov 12, 2014. 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Water Drillers Set To Rise From The Depths [View article]
    I don't claim that my fundamental analysis is based on anything other than earnings and history. We agree that the sector is likely at or near a low, and I have recently gone quite long drillers, oil service, etc.

    What I don't claim is any market timing ability, and my experience with EW analysts is that all statements are hedged to the extent that they are really not worth much. The chart says something until it doesn't. The typical method is to show how the chart says something else after the fact. A simple review of your PBR/Brazil article will demonstrate my point. You likely can offer an EW explanation for the significant loss experienced by anyone acting on your interpreted action. Not much help, but that's OK. You needn't always be right, and everyone has to make a living anyway.

    The REAL point of my comment was that your explanation for the oil price action was waaaay out there (plus I thought that EW analysis eschewed fundamental considerations). Did you not say in essence that the US gov't had controlled hundreds of companies' production? Will you give some back-up to the alleged U.S. commitment to the Saudis to reduce production?
    Nov 11, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Water Drillers Set To Rise From The Depths [View article]
    OMG, so we have Elliott Wave theory now adding cockamamie fundamental analysis to tea leaf reading?

    "However, the U.S. has already committed to the Saudis to reduce production ..... The U.S. was able to make a statement to the world that we certainly have the ability to go toe to toe on production ...."

    Wow. I wasn't aware of our Federally mandated production controls. Well kept secret, eh?
    Nov 11, 2014. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Myths About SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money [View article]
    Incidentally, I really appreciate getting a more global view of events from both of you. Thanks.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Myths About SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money [View article]
    mapodga, "EU energy policy is still in the hands of member states and will remain there..." Actually, all policy is really still dependent on the various national entities going along isn't it? In my opinion that is why the EU will ultimately disintegrate.

    Alex, you are the perfect example of what I mean. There is a heavy price to pay when sovereignty is given up in a larger interest, and the trust can really only be built in blood. Like the U.S. revolution. But it still is very hard to maintain. Like the U.S. civil war (and the current polarization). The way the world is more and more Balkanized I'd view the long term continuation of the EU (as it is) as something of a miracle.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied World Assurance Holdings: Steady As She Goes [View article]
    Thank you for this summary of their business. One other metric to add is that AWH is very conservative about reserving. There is a long term history of reserves flowing to income - not the other direction.
    Nov 8, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Sanctions And Offshore Drilling Weakness Are Not Likely To Be A Problem [View article]
    FYI, IB doesn't trade all OSLO listed stuff. They use the NASDAQ Nordic exchange - OXMNO I think it's called. Still it's likely the best alternative to trade there.
    Nov 8, 2014. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Pacific Drilling Results Are Decent, But Stock Has Limited Upside [View article]
    The link doesn't say that. The Zonda delivery is not stated to be the USE of the liquidity. Do the loan docs themselves say that? It would be rather unusual language for an unsecured revolver.
    Nov 7, 2014. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Pacific Drilling Results Are Decent, But Stock Has Limited Upside [View article]
    Their 2013 revolver is undrawn. So is this new one. The existing bond tranches covered 100% of construction financing. What am I missing in your argument?
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling Should Sell Itself [View article]
    I'll post this link again. http://bit.ly/1wUxPlT

    The take away is that all construction financing is covered by the current bond structure, so I can only conclude that there is a disconnect somewhere in the article assumptions (which I don't have time to identify). Without a look at cash restricted for this purpose, and what part of capex is thus discretionary, it's hard to credit the article thesis. JM20 is absolutely right - that an opportunistic M&A deal due to distress of some kind isn't really foreseeable: my added point is that there is no distress.
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Gas Utility Companies [View article]
    Oh well. The 1st clue something was different about the company is the revenue growth. If one relies on brokerage or other website industry lists, you get strange batches of so-called competitors, eh ?
    Nov 7, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Seems To Be Overestimating Seadrill's Risk [View article]
    Engaging with a troll is always a bad idea. Please don't even respond to that kind of garbage.
    Nov 7, 2014. 10:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Built To Win [View article]
    Great color geopressure. That is exactly the kind of DD I always hope to see on SA.
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Gas Utility Companies [View article]
    Isn't SE bigger than all of these and a direct comp to OKE?
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    Folks, literary criticism has it's own style. No insult intended.
    Nov 6, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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