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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Finding Value With The Piotroski F-Score Part 3 [View article]
    http://bit.ly/15Tt8e9
    Mar 22, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Strategy: Can You Afford To Play It Safe? [View article]
    Ben, it is possible to do much better than 4% annualized writing OTM cash covered puts during increased volatility. This is one of the ways I enhance returns in my barbell strategy. It has the advantage of choosing strike prices representing reasonable valuations for overpriced equities you want to own. The problem is deploying enough capital to move the needle (i.e. not committing too much notional value to single positions).
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling Is Well-Positioned To Weather The Industry Downturn [View article]
    Not nearly enough said to make any point.

    Cap ex ≠ cost to drill. To say something meaningful, look at slide 26 of the latest presentation here http://bit.ly/1xMB2Ts

    BTW, the price of oil has nothing directly to do with either costs or revenue of PACD.
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy: A Solid Dividend Growth Candidate [View article]
    Anyone wishing to examine their debt structure can see it here: http://bit.ly/1hUS5yT
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate Of Procter & Gamble [View article]
    LOL. Our discussion reminds me of that old Groucho Marx routine.

    He asks the lady, "Would you go to bed with me for a million dollars?"

    She replies, "Well, OK."

    Then he asks, "Will you go to bed with me for ten dollars?"

    Take aback, she says, "No! What do you think I am?"

    He replies, "We've established what you are - now we're just haggling over price."

    It sounds like we simply have a different perception of what a future dollar of PG earnings is worth. I would bet (I AM betting) that in the next five years I will again buy PG at the valuation I'm talking about. I've got time, God willing. Good luck to us both.
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate Of Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Yes, those numbers are good numbers. One of my favorite numbers is 22. It's unfortunate that number doesn't always correspond with the value of stuff I buy or sell.

    Are you saying that buying PG for those numbers is a good price at any time under any conditions? In your opinion is PG (or any stock you like/hold) EVER overvalued? If it is possible that PG could be overvalued at some conceivable price, then maybe we can simply disagree about what that price is.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen's New 2016-2017 SUV Product Offensive [View article]
    I'm more interested in buying a VW product - like a diesel hybrid small or midsize SUV - than I am in their stock. My local dealer said to expect one next model year.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate Of Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Really? One could have purchased PG for $60 several times during 2010-2012, at 15x earnings (I know because I did). Incidentally, earnings during that period were more than they are now. I still own some, but not much more than a placeholder until it is more sensibly valued.

    Hint: buy low sell high. If your philosophy is never sell, I don't know why you would be looking at Seeking Alpha in the first place.
    Mar 20, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers Are Now At Risk From Contract Cancellations [View article]
    You're most welcome my friend. Some added thoughts:

    We saw most oil sector stocks bottom in the mid December to mid January time frame, and the price of WTI crude hit a low at the end of January and bounced (http://bit.ly/1xmQATp). Over the past few days that low was taken out but the oil sector stocks did not make new lows (for the most part). See (http://yhoo.it/1xmQyuP).

    My conclusion is that a certain level is priced in and we really haven't hit it yet. The real question is what is that price? For my part I would not be surprised to see WTI with a price below $40 before it's all over. I would be a bit surprised if the bottom is already in since I haven't seen extremes of volume that usually happen around those price extremes.

    We're both early, but I'm not done buying or haven't yet bought NOV, HP, EMES, DNR, DMLP. My spec positions are set already and include mostly options on PWE, BXE and NADL and good sized bets on CPE (common and preferred) and PACD. Good luck to us.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling Is Well-Positioned To Weather The Industry Downturn [View article]
    Bravo NQP.

    Eeulo, it sounds like you shouldn't buy PACD, and maybe even short it.

    I actually think that the chances are pretty good that PACD reaches a deal with Chevron for Meltem (at least) which may involve reduced dayrates for Santa Ana and/or Sharav. Just a hunch, but I like potential win/win stuff like that.
    Mar 20, 2015. 12:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy: A Solid Dividend Growth Candidate [View article]
    Re: DCP Midstream - partner PSX has made noises about wishing to inject capital, which SE has declined to entertain. There is a possibility that they might want to buy out SE's interest, since DCP assets can provide cost advantaged feed to PSX refineries.

    Also, given the long haul transport from Marcellus/Utica to GoM, it's entirely possible that this will be a better capital appreciation play than income holding. The dividend doesn't hurt, but I discount it over a five year period where rising rates are expected.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate Of Procter & Gamble [View article]
    I'm a buyer below $60 (below 18x earnings). At $60, it's not that great a bargain.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Make The Costco Pain Go Away, American Express Goes After Capitol One [View article]
    Not to mention incomparable ROA and ROE. But probably the biggest difference is the customer profile (Viking hats wouldn't work to attract them). That is what has had enduring value despite competitive pressures.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Dividend Growth Investors Fear Interest Rate Volatility? [View article]
    Actually, I question the use of the term. Why would it be irrational to re-price a 4.5% yield if the risk free rate were (to pick an exaggerated number) 10%? Surely that is the opposite of irrational. Maybe you think it's irrational because it is only the likelihood of it happening that changed? Is it irrational to believe interest rates will rise? Is an expected time frame for a rate increase rational or irrational?

    On the other hand, is your expectation of growth prospects rational or irrational? If O were currently priced at $75, would buying it be rational? What about at $15? I think it is at least unwise and complacent (I won't say irrational) to dismiss the messages that stock prices can send, however noisy they are.

    Please, someone chime in and tell me it depends on what your investment goals are....
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A $6.4 Billion Backlog Growth Opportunity Nears Fruition [View article]
    Non-issue until it isn't. Complacency is ill advised in inverse proportion to risk. http://bit.ly/1EwxB5P
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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