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  • The DGI 'Factual 48' Versus 'The Favored 44' [View article]
    Hector, I decided long ago not to engage RAS, since my comments seem to arouse defensive reactions and dispassionate discussion is difficult. This despite the fact that I don't label DGI investors as " cultists, maniacs, zealots, idiots." My comments usually relate to ignoring pertinent data in their back test proofs.
    Feb 3, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seadrill's Partner Rosneft Will Postpone Drilling In The Kara Sea [View article]
    Thanks for the update Volodya. Any opinion on the possibility that Putin uses the financial distress in the oil sector to completely nationalize companies?
    Feb 3, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DGI 'Factual 48' Versus 'The Favored 44' [View article]
    "I find comfort when Seeking Alpha (SA) investors I esteem own the same stocks as I do."

    I think investors should seek dissent rather than comfort. Of course, dissent in the DGI space here on SA is pretty rare, since most seem to seek comfort (e.g. sleep well stock picks, etc., etc., etc.)
    Feb 2, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Baxter Q4 2014 Earnings Impress, But Guidance Disappoints [View article]
    "From a conservative standpoint, there is simply too much risk in Baxter and far better blue-chip candidates to single out for a solid yield and share price appreciation."

    I'd be interested to know who you think these are (in this sector). With the catalyst of better capital allocation via the spin off, I don't see a better risk adjusted comp.
    Feb 2, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Oil's Plunge Dampen National Oilwell's Q4? [View article]
    Shock, your comment is ridiculous on its face. If you have such knowledge (rather than mere speculation) then writing/thinking about equities is not how to maximize profit. All your time should be spent capitalizing on price inefficiencies in the futures market. AND sharing your strategies would make them ineffective. I'm now less likely to take you seriously.
    Feb 1, 2015. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Oil's Plunge Dampen National Oilwell's Q4? [View article]
    In addition to lower sales, we should expect lower margins on what sales do occur across all the business segments. Having said that, since no one knows the duration of the commodity pricing environment, and NOV is undoubtedly among the sector best in class companies, it's not too soon to begin purchasing a position below 10x earnings. I'm attempting to add to my position by writing puts.
    Feb 1, 2015. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The World's Largest Net Lease REIT Worth? [View article]
    Did I miss the present value of the owned real estate? Is it listed somewhere?
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even If Oil Has Not, Energy Stocks May Have Bottomed [View article]
    Indeed. While it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings, she may be in the next room practicing her scales. It's hard to fathom how these two recommendations were chosen.

    "I'm surrendering myself to the ultimate test of both markets and readers: performance." Not a good crystal ball call even if they survive. AMZG and WRES performed far worse than similarly leveraged peers.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp: A 6.5% Yield With A Catch [View article]
    Low Beta, that's simply incorrect. SIFI is a set of rules which apply to institutions over a certain asset size. There is no limitation such as you described, unless the institution becomes subject to intervention by the FDIC or FRB due to capital ratios (like BAC, C, AIG, etc.). Look at WFC or USB. There have been no such restrictions applied as a result of SIFI designation. Incidentally, if a non-SIFI institution becomes subject to regulatory intervention they would also be subject to oversight and limitation on use of capital under current law.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    Cash flow or EBITDA as defined by covenant ratios is not really a liquidity event. Everyone knows (or should know) ratios will be an issue. This article and threads have jumped the shark. Unchecking the box.
    Jan 24, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy These 5 Small-Cap Oil Stocks With Low Debt Levels [View article]
    CPE is focused in the Permian exclusively. Are you referring to other companies?
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Legacy Reserves Avoid The Upstream MLP Distribution Cut Trend? [View article]
    Thanks for sharing your work BB. I wish there were more participants like you.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    2015 capex is back end loaded. They will likely readjust it and eliminate the dividend. I think this view is priced into the stock.

    Further, I think that lenders will relax ratio covenants. I also think PWE will be bought in 2015 for $4-$6 per share (NIC assumption of debt). I don't believe that these possibilities are priced into the stock now.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Chevron Sells More LNG [View article]
    I don't see any pricing data released. Was there? Their production costs are comparatively high you know. If the agreement is indexed to oil prices, CVX is betting on a return to prices which are more than 70% higher than the current quote.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill to guarantee North Atlantic Drilling bond [View news story]
    The take away here is that SDRL is a backstop re: NADL bankruptcy. It's a no-brainer given their large ownership position. If NADL ultimately has solvency issues, look for a SDRL takeover. That may happen anyway. I'm long NADL via calls and short puts. It's been a really good 48 hours...
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment