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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Allied World Offers A Healthy Balance Sheet, But Market Conditions Are Tough [View article]
    Thanks for this precis. Any thoughts on the industry consolidation (i.e. PRE, ENH)?
    May 15, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Leverage And Poor Realizations Continue To Pose Risks [View article]
    Agreed on both points. Near as I can tell, his cost is right below $20/sh. But holding ~10% wouldn't stop the deal if the market is sufficiently impatient with management.

    I also agree about investing strictly on take-over being a bad idea, but see their assets (including contracted regional take away capacity) being at a very low price based on a macro view of nat gas being extremely undervalued right now. While they don't seem to participate in the upside properly (yet anyway), I see very limited downside. Good enough risk reward, IMO.
    May 15, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Leverage And Poor Realizations Continue To Pose Risks [View article]
    Perhaps. But it really doesn't matter whether it's debt or equity in a buy out - it's all in the EV. Check out the BG Group metrics. RDS will end up just fine.

    Of course time will tell.
    May 15, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills Stock Analysis [View article]
    I actually pay more attention to TTM numbers - they can't get revised so often. :)) Excluding nonrecurring items it's at more than 24x. Nose bleed territory for their growth profile. I'm writing ITM calls to lighten up.
    May 14, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Does Anybody Know What's Going On? [View article]
    kpgiants, that's my take. They are under-performing management with great assets. I'm guessing a buy out at ~$30 billion EV or better. This would move the needle for a number of players.
    May 14, 2015. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Leverage And Poor Realizations Continue To Pose Risks [View article]
    While some issues are apparent with some of the analysis, I don't argue with the author's assessment that CHK is not performing well. This is a major reason I'm long - they will be taken out by someone fairly soon at an EV ~$30 billion or perhaps more. Unlikely they could turn down $20/share. Look at the BG deal.
    May 14, 2015. 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - No Need To Gild The Lily [View article]
    Catchy article title.
    May 14, 2015. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Trouble? Reasons This One May Go Up In Smoke [View article]
    Cognitive dissonance...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 12, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Passing On Procter & Gamble [View article]
    S_belton, he said he wouldn't allocate new capital to PG, not that he'd sell if he were long with cap gains. Given his (IMO correct) assessment of the situation, I presume he wouldn't be allocating new capital to MCD, MO, or a bunch of so-called champions at this point either.
    May 12, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Trouble? Reasons This One May Go Up In Smoke [View article]
    I agree on the valuation extremes RB. Since January I've been writing in-the-money calls to lighten my position. As it turned out, about half of them have expired unexercised as the stock dropped, but I'm still writing them until the position is pared sufficiently, or the share price goes below $44 - whichever comes first.

    I would also add that long term positions with incremental sales at higher valuations and incremental buys at lower valuations (compared to historic norms) are not really short term trades or market timing. Reluctance to make these decisions simply indicates fear of failure.
    May 12, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Bellatrix Exploration Make A Comeback After Weak Q1 Results? [View article]
    Trying to be charitable, but the author's other oil sector articles are similarly shallow.
    May 11, 2015. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources' Drop Post-Q1 Results Is An Opportunity In Disguise [View article]
    Looks like ~$5/bbl based on current production. See slide 17 here. http://bit.ly/1GYNovk

    Of course, this is a broad average over different regions.
    May 11, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources' Drop Post-Q1 Results Is An Opportunity In Disguise [View article]
    DNR share price has dropped 4% since your 4/25 article. This is less dramatic than your premise suggests. In the interim you don't appear to have become any more familiar with the company's business (e.g. CO2 injection is not a new development in their EOR strategy).
    May 10, 2015. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Electric On Sale For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    R, you could also consider ABB. It's in pretty much the same space and valuation situation, but has some present advantage for a dollar denominated investor. I agree about only beginning to scale in to these names here.
    May 9, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase [View article]
    <while safely hiding behind a wall>

    I must be missing something. Isn't he the only one to actually link specific portfolio data? If you follow my reference links above, you could probably figure out that $3 million portfolio return 2010 until now, but why bother? As I said earlier, it's objective isn't total return (when I looked it wasn't beating the indexes anyway), and it is not a prudently diversified portfolio according to any industry professional standard of care.

    DGI folks are so careful to parse objectives, and if what is desired is income - a paycheck replacement - then forget the total return metrics for Pete's sake.
    May 8, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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