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  • Bakken Update: Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    Stellar work as usual MF. Tough times in the energy patch for a while.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Horrible, No Good, Awful BP [View article]
    ROFL. Will you do my taxes for me?
    Jan 6, 2015. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Difficult Decision To Part Ways With BP [View article]
    Without implied criticism, I'd simply say that perhaps you should remove long term horizon from your profile or be clear about which positions are considered trades.
    Jan 6, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Penn West Petroleum - Buying When Blood Is In The Streets? [View article]
    I'll be interested to see your article JW. I hope you look at the currency impacts, since PWE's costs are in CAD, but revenue is (mostly?) in USD. As for cash break even, there are a lot of moving parts - some levers are still available to management. High risk/reward here depending on commodity prices/duration.
    Jan 6, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips announces first oil production from Norwegian project [View news story]
    You must be overweight energy to feel so pessimistic. I feel ya. Cheer up - these emotions usually accompany the lows. :)
    Jan 5, 2015. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Penn West Petroleum - Buying When Blood Is In The Streets? [View article]
    Agree LT. No 2015-2016 hedges was a definite mistake of significant magnitude. OTOH, PWE is not like shale players with rapid decline rates, so CapEx is worth more in cash flow. I also see PWE to be a take out in 2015 at around $7 based on $60 oil (anything less and management resists and/or Canadian Pension will obstruct). If oil bounces back, the number will be more.
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rational Valuation For American Realty [View article]
    The perception or reality of risk is tied to the underlying assets, isn't it? For this company that means (just as examples): 1) Are the appraised asset values right? 2) Are there hidden lease liabilities or tenant give-aways within the portfolio? 3) Were related party fees and/or costs improperly capitalized? The reason for the multiples on ARCP is that none of this is easy to tease out given the pace of deals.

    The biggest concern for me is the possibility of valuation disparities in the acquired portfolios. In semi-related party transactions it is relatively easy to tweak value to make RE deals look good. Given the history, it would not surprise me if some "impairments" were discovered leading to book value and goodwill write downs. On the plus side, Realty Income did actually buy a Schorsch produced portfolio and we can presumably trust their DD.

    I have been quite long ARCP in trades and made good returns. I have only a small position right now. I was even luckier to make big trades in RCAP put options and a few shares over the past couple months. I think the risk reward is better there right now.
    Jan 4, 2015. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP's Issues Hardly A 'Scandal' [View article]
    droubal, forget the financial statements - can you do arithmetic? You know, where you divide the dividend by share price...

    If not, I'll sell you a share that pays a $10 dividend!! Only $2,000 each. OK?

    Are you really a financial planner?
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Has There Actually Been A Turnaround? [View article]
    EA you have real staying power continuing to follow this company. It's hard for me to be interested though (I'm just visiting some of the better plays from this past year). I see bebopr here, but where have the really rabid bulls gone I wonder? Happy New Year to all.
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Difficult Decision To Part Ways With BP [View article]
    Tough for people to buy vodka when the Ruble loses "100% of its value." Maybe they can burn the currency to keep warm...
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The U.S. Consumer Is Going To Kill It, And J.C. Penney Will Too [View article]
    OMG. Revisiting these old investment calls persisting in ongoing articles is like going back to your old neighborhoods that need redevelopment now. Why not simply acknowledge a mistake and move on? Wouldn't even T-bills be better?
    Dec 29, 2014. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Facts About U.S. Frac Sand Market: Emerge Energy Services, Hi-Crush Partners, U.S. Silica [View article]
    kappaseek, while I sympathize with some of what you seem to focus on, this is an investment site after all. Maybe if in the future you were to connect the dots a bit more specifically as to how philosophical and moral implications could displace or even modify the economic realities of energy consumption it would be more helpful.
    Dec 28, 2014. 06:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Facts About U.S. Frac Sand Market: Emerge Energy Services, Hi-Crush Partners, U.S. Silica [View article]
    I really appreciate the data presentation in this article. I'm much more cautious about some of the interpretations. To address only the biggest caveat: there is a HUGE difference between the results obtained by the best shale E&Ps and the also-rans. Well costs and recovery differences can exceed 100% each (i.e. one half the cost and twice the revenue). Obviously the price environment will cull the inexpert and overleveraged players from the scene, but there are producers making money at sub $50 oil in the same rock where others are losing money. These drillers will still need sand, likely the same amount as weaker players are taken out. The growth trajectory will obviously moderate as the consolidation proceeds.
    Dec 28, 2014. 01:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Picks Within Mortgage-Backed REITS For 2015 [View article]
    I have held to the view that interest rates will remain low for the past two years, and it has made me money. While I agree with the factors you cite, there is data that begins to suggest a tightening may be necessary however reluctant the Fed may be to raise rates. The money injected under the various QEs has thus far just been sitting on balance sheets, but there are signs that it is entering the real economy (see Believe me, this is trouble for the Fed.

    I don't see how world interest rates and economic weakness would allow us to unilaterally raise rates. On the other hand, any quick movement of these reserves into circulation represents a problem that can rapidly get out of hand. I'm looking for at least some tough Fed talk if it continues.
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Missing The Bottom [View article]
    The big assumption is the stock has a 25% gain rather than a 25% loss. KMI shows relative strength in the pipeline space (probably due to retail investors' faith, since institutions have been net sellers recently), but the whole space is at higher risk right now IMO.

    I'm long KMI, SE, WMB (among others) - but still trying to think strategically.
    Dec 25, 2014. 02:59 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment