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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    2015 capex is back end loaded. They will likely readjust it and eliminate the dividend. I think this view is priced into the stock.

    Further, I think that lenders will relax ratio covenants. I also think PWE will be bought in 2015 for $4-$6 per share (NIC assumption of debt). I don't believe that these possibilities are priced into the stock now.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Chevron Sells More LNG [View article]
    I don't see any pricing data released. Was there? Their production costs are comparatively high you know. If the agreement is indexed to oil prices, CVX is betting on a return to prices which are more than 70% higher than the current quote. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill to guarantee North Atlantic Drilling bond [View news story]
    The take away here is that SDRL is a backstop re: NADL bankruptcy. It's a no-brainer given their large ownership position. If NADL ultimately has solvency issues, look for a SDRL takeover. That may happen anyway. I'm long NADL via calls and short puts. It's been a really good 48 hours...
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp: A 6.5% Yield With A Catch [View article]
    waldipup, as giofls says it is more a matter of what SIFI status would do to earnings that would influence the dividend. If you look historically, the dividend was maintained prior to and through the financial crisis when payout ratios exceeded 100%. Earnings remained positive and loan losses were neglible even in those times. That said, I'm not counting on a maintained dividend, but on a management that runs a conservative banking business.

    It might be worth contacting NYCB investor relations with a specific question as to what they project SIFI would do to earnings. If management has ever discussed that they could answer easily.
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Community Bancorp: A 6.5% Yield With A Catch [View article]
    Thanks for this article. A couple points:

    1. While you suggest the possibility of forced dividend cuts due to SIFI classification, you don't connect any dots as to why that would happen technically. When management discusses avoiding the $50 billion threshold, they do not do so in any context except the overall regulatory burden imposed - not specifically to do with dividends (see http://bit.ly/1GwF3Ez). Such a limitation would only take effect if stress test weakness required it. No one has suggested any problems in that area.

    If anyone really wants to get in the weeds of when and/or how FDIC and/or the FRB would dictate a dividend policy, see the Federal Register here http://1.usa.gov/1GwESJB at pp. 10722 ff.

    2. I find the ROA (at 1%) to be good, but ROE (at 8.2%) could be better. Management discussion indicates to me that this is the metric that shows the real impact of staying below the SIFI threshold.

    For my part, the higher dividend is compensation for the lower ROE (I like 10% as my low threshold for banks). I would see crossing the threshold in an accretive way as a positive event.

    Thanks again for the article.
    Jan 21, 2015. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy These 5 Small-Cap Oil Stocks With Low Debt Levels [View article]
    It's noteworthy that no mention of debt-like preferred stock obligations such as CPR-A are mentioned. These act like debt in cash requirements, trigger events, etc. Was the preferred counted as equity?
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dorchester Minerals Substantially Outperformed Peer Index - By 88% Since 2007 [View article]
    I also lightened up in DMLP when it went over $30. I'm an incremental buyer when it goes to $22 and below. I've held a rather large core position throughout (spread among taxable and retirement accounts), and used purchases and sales to lower my basis. I like this company as much as ever.
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    The greater part of their Marcellus/Utica assets will be dry gas, I would guess. Nevertheless, they would still be subject to the same dynamics I spoke of above to the extent that commodity prices remain low. That being said, dry gas was already pretty low before the recent drop in oil.

    If you look here http://bit.ly/U3A40u at the older presentations (say 5/22/14 and before, prior to the WMB acquisition) you'll see the basins where ACMP has assets characterized by "liquids" and "gas." Keep in mind the liquids can be NGLs which are usually more tied to the price of crude.
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    Re: pipelines, you will find varying indirect exposure to commodity prices. Most companies will offer some figures (not broken down) about what percentage of business is fee based (what is being called "toll road" here).

    However, even the fee based business should be viewed with varying risk exposures. Citing WMB as an example, their interstate and midstream routes (e.g. Transco, etc.) are much more insulated from commodity risk than their upstream gathering assets (e.g. their recent ACMP acquisition, their Marcellus gathering assets, etc.)

    While a percentage of all this midstream (and even some upstream) stuff is take or pay, generally the longer the haul the longer the capacity contract durations. To make a broad generalization, field level pipelines will probably see empty capacity and lower transport revenues if the price of the commodities stays low for a protracted time. It would not surprise me to see E&P companies paying for unused throughput under "take or pay" contract clauses for upstream pipe if wellhead costs exceed the commodity price.

    Disclosure, short WMB puts.
    Jan 18, 2015. 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Activist Investor Implications [View article]
    tennvol:

    1st, CWH/EQC was not a private equity takeover. It's still a public company.

    2nd, If you look at the end of 2012/ beginning of 2013 when Luxor and Corvex began accumulating shares until now you have just about a double in share price.

    3rd, no one is buying ARCP for dividends. They're already suspended - right?

    Finally, as for EQC, they are a REIT and by law will have to pay out the requisite income share once they have put the balance sheet into better shape.
    Jan 18, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy: Looking A Little Vulnerable [View article]
    KR, why don't you name just one oil service company that hedges the commodity? To my knowledge, even refiners who have pricing risk to inventories don't hedge price risk.

    It's not a rhetorical question - I genuinely don't know of any non E&P that does this. IMO there are better reasons NOT to do it without direct, that is 100% correspondence, to the hedged risk.
    Jan 18, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Cash Flow In A World Without Risk Free Yield-Bought The ETF PFF [View article]
    Of course you all realize that all these secondary reporting parties disclaim responsibility for accuracy. The observation that the funds themselves should do better is thus even more apt.
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Cash Flow In A World Without Risk Free Yield-Bought The ETF PFF [View article]
    Understanding the management personality of the issuer is important IMO. Change of control is one issue, but the actions of those wonderful folks at Emmis Communications shows that even cumulative dividends may not end up that way. Have you followed that case South Gent?
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy: Looking A Little Vulnerable [View article]
    KR maybe you can tell us how to hedge sand? On the other hand, maybe you don't know what this company does?
    Jan 17, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    Christine, you just very briefly and clearly stated the relevant point, as did Dave C. I also find your other comments informative and relevant. Thanks.
    Jan 17, 2015. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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