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Qniform

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  • Is Baxter Guidance Portending A Dividend Cut? [View article]
    Apparently the market agrees with the future prospects for the pair of companies going forward. I added shares over the past weeks as well, and sold $65 puts - most of which look like they'll expire.

    I think Baxalta is going to surprise a lot of people with growth - organic and M&A.
    Jun 23, 2015. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Myopic Analyst Syndrome Gets It Wrong: Part I - Procter & Gamble [View article]
    That's a fair assessment TSGR. I'd add that PG is facing very serious competition in its highest margin business (Gilette), and its management of other brands gives very little confidence that they will grow revenue. If they get some good financial engineers in they may be able to buy some time to dress up EPS with stock buy-backs like IBM did. The jury is out on whether they will get new blood capable of changing things.
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams rallies on Energy Transfer bid, but will it get a better offer? [View news story]
    I agree with that comment user 35...

    My purchase of WMB (and WPZ after the roll-up announced by the GP) was strictly for the interstate natgas pipe assets which match my view of a decade megatrend moving product to the GoM. I prefer to hold a C corp, but would only keep WPZ in the event of a ETE buy-out.
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Tips For Better Dividend Stock Selection [View article]
    Sorry, I missed that. Why the change in methodology? Did it test better or something?
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken: Defying Oil Price Gravity [View article]
    Very helpful work. I'm not sure that we would see a constant level of production driven only by completions from fraclog, because 1) companies will want to maintain a backlog that may actually be higher than the past, and 2) sources of capital and liquidity may want some more evidence of commodity price stability before providing funds to operate. Remember, there are other more compelling investments in other basins.

    Nevertheless, the article is a great help to focus on the moving parts. Thank you.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Realty: 4% And Good For The Environment [View article]
    That's just not true TMG. Having managed design and construction of LEEDS certified buildings in a number of business sectors I can tell you that they are much in demand in a lease situation (think lower tenant costs), and as a result are valued significantly more highly from a capital standpoint. You obviously should educate yourself on just what the designation means - it is not about power source.
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    Look blue, I wasn't the one quoting an analyst - in fact I questioned their ability to come up with useful numbers, remember? They will produce about the same quantity of oil after a 50% capex reduction. Who else do you find making that kind of adjustment? Serious question - not meant to be argumentative.

    As for less dated metrics I see them selling at 5x earnings excluding NRI (they actually have earnings in this environment). I see them selling at 1.94x operating cash flow (which is positive unlike most competitors in their sector). Why don't you get specific with a company you like better? Quoting IRR is eyewash in most presentations, designed to obscure the fact that the company isn't EPS or cashflow positive. :)
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Tips For Better Dividend Stock Selection [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I noted the three month reconstitution of the portfolio in the first example: was that same methodology used in all the subsequent examples?
    Jun 22, 2015. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taylor Swift > Apple [View article]
    Chris, when you write about AAPL, the quality of the comment stream is entirely different. Welcome to the neighborhood.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    Credit Suisse's analyst has $55.76 all in (2014). Goldman shows somewhat less. Either of those has much more credibility than your cited SA author in my opinion, but as I said, the snapshot of cost per barrel is never accurate. Expenses are paid in previous years, results are recognized years later. So you're seeing financial data in categories which are unrelated in time. And we haven't talked about the influence of hedges. You'll do whatever you like of course, but DNR is not a weak player in the E&P space (it really doesn't even belong in that category).
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    G&A and cost of capital are not included. You said production cost, which is a non-standard term. LOE expense is carefully defined, and will vary across regions and even wells. Only averages are included in presentations usually.

    Good luck finding the all-in numbers for any E&P. Analysts are all over the map on constructing that for any company given the time frames where capital is raised vs when cash flows are recognized.
    Jun 22, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Realty: 4% And Good For The Environment [View article]
    Do a fixed income piece on MO or KMI. I bet you get a bunch of views - and ... interesting... comments.
    Jun 22, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Realty: 4% And Good For The Environment [View article]
    Thank you for the article. Fixed income is virtually ignored on SA.
    Jun 22, 2015. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    See slides 16, 35-37 here. http://bit.ly/1I8AboR

    I have no idea how a $60 LOE could be constructed.
    Jun 21, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Pros And Cons [View article]
    Yes CPA, I agree that they are necessary to doing business but I think that they are much much less valuable to finance and investment decisions, unless very carefully vetted. I have had P&L responsibility at an operating level and have supplied forward projections of revenue, cost, and operating profit etc. Across my career these projections were often influenced by budget and sales targets that had nothing to do with the reality at the operations level. They were constructs developed in the C Suite.

    Even during my brief experience in the C Suite I wasn't able to stop this fiction (only change the process a little). It was one reason I decided to retire early. :))
    Jun 20, 2015. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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