Qniform

Qniform
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Tax U-Turn Means Shaxalta Is A Go  [View article]
    I would postulate that the SHPG price action reflects not so much a dislike of the deal, but the removal of the take over premium that has been present in the stock for the last 18 months. There is also obvious arb hedging affecting the stock, with short sale restrictions, etc. I like the deal a lot, and was very long BXLT to capture the discount on Shire (I would have preferred the all stock deal).
    Jan 11, 2016. 05:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shire takes out Baxalta for $32B  [View news story]
    Not really so clear. The arb hedges can distort the price action. The normal method would be long SHPG short BXLT, but that is obviously dangerous and the opposite happened (there was a short sale restriction in place today at my broker). I'm no expert, so the hedge is not one I'd attempt anyway.
    Jan 11, 2016. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shire takes out Baxalta for $32B  [View news story]
    From the "Financial Highlights" section of the press release:

    "Shire has conducted additional tax due diligence, and based on this diligence, Shire and its tax advisor have concluded that a merger with the proposed cash consideration of $18 per Baxalta share will maintain the tax-free status of the Baxalta spinoff from Baxter."

    BAX is supporting the deal, so there will be no tax claw back on the BXLT spin-off. No impact on me either way since I hold SHPG and BXLT in tax advantaged accounts. Those who don't should be relieved. As for disclosures of all possible impacts, I don't need my hand held. I chuckle at scald warnings on MCD coffee cups.
    Jan 11, 2016. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shire takes out Baxalta for $32B  [View news story]
    I have all the same thoughts Jdoe, and I've done significant research already. That's why I've built a big position. I solicit info anywhere I can but discount opinion based on less relevant factors (like acquisition history or past performance).
    Jan 11, 2016. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shire takes out Baxalta for $32B  [View news story]
    I was hoping for more of a data driven answer than that. :)) Shire is no Valeant.

    I do own MRK (no stranger to acquisition growth).
    Jan 11, 2016. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shire takes out Baxalta for $32B  [View news story]
    Willow, can you share why don't you like Shire? I held BXLT (and increased the position) from the BAX split as a discounted way to buy SHPG. It will be one of my largest spec positions. Do you know something I don't?
    Jan 11, 2016. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Beneath Kinder Morgan And Energy Transfer's Fayetteville Express?  [View article]
    BUT, (katz/EDCM) the cap cost/debt is not amortized. The carrying cost does not go away under the current accounting methodology, so if equity or debt is not raised in the meantime, what does that say about valuation?
    Jan 10, 2016. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody’s downgrades Williams, cuts outlook for Energy Transfer  [View news story]
    Why should we care what a rating agency says? Well, the market which values the investment cares, and the financial institutions which price their interest costs care, so a diligent investor should not discount the event - even if he thinks the rating agencies don't do a good job (stipulated without assent).
    Jan 9, 2016. 01:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources: Debt Exchange Capacity Improves Potential Valuation  [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1n8Fygi

    http://bit.ly/1n8FwVP

    http://bit.ly/1n8FQ6I

    But from the Q3 Conference Call:

    "Philip M. Rykhoek - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director

    Not a lot new at Riley Ridge. We've been working on a solution to solve the software deposition. They believe they fixed the issues that were related to the plant. So we're – we had two or three options on that. We're still kind of fine tuning the cost and so forth. The hard part today is as you probably noticed, gas prices have gone down, went to the low $2s. And so, I think it -- looking forward we have to consider the economics and what it costs to implement these changes. We're not quite ready to go yet, but we're – I think we're zeroing in on a solution, but the natural gas market probably hasn't helped us with regard to that. Keep in mind that with regard to Denbury, that really the CO2 that would come off of that plant really isn't needed until we published our CCA, which is probably at least five years off."
    Jan 8, 2016. 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Alpha Through Stadium Naming Rights  [View article]
    Thanks for the oddball idea (I mean that in the nicest possible way). While harder to do, it might be instructive to look at the company names over time. I live in Northern California, and as I recall a local arena started out as ARCO, went to Monster (the internet bubble job search company), Power Balance, now Sleep Train. Except for ARCO, it was definitely a contrary indicator.
    Jan 6, 2016. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental Petroleum - Don't Play With This Risky Name  [View article]
    Hmmm. Let's guess what identity you used already in these comments...
    Jan 1, 2016. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental Petroleum - Don't Play With This Risky Name  [View article]
    Chemical only produces a fraction of income.

    This site - http://bit.ly/1kz3hEy - is a nice place to check out the industry side by side (see competitor tabs).
    Jan 1, 2016. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meridian Bioscience - What Did 2015 Bring?  [View article]
    While I'm long VIVO, I'm certainly not adding at these levels. The share price is richly valued for such slow growth. I'm selling ITM calls, and would write puts on a 20%-25% pull back.
    Jan 1, 2016. 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Less Volatility And Better Returns  [View article]
    It's important to understand the difference between beta and volatility in general when constructing your portfolio. Beta is the amount of movement with reference to an index, whereas volatility measures the price movement in terms of standard deviation without that external reference. Both measures are important.
    Dec 30, 2015. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Less Volatility And Better Returns  [View article]
    Thanks for the article. InvestSpy was a resource I hadn't seen. For more flexibility in analyzing correlation over time periods (but limited to 12 holdings) check http://tinyurl.com/jg8...
    Dec 29, 2015. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,830 Comments
3,214 Likes