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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    FWIW, I traded out of the buys yesterday ($3.30 and $3.14) today at $3.45. This is what I mean by trading around a position to lower average cost.
    Aug 6, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Gas Utility Firm Spectra Energy Really Yield 5%? [View article]
    I second that compliment to Uncle Pie. I own SE, WMB, CPGX, and KMI (weighted in that order) primarily for their interstate pipes from GoM to the various shale basins that contain natgas reserves. I reduced the KMI position greatly based on valuation.
    Aug 6, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Debt Level Should Scare You [View article]
    Yes, it is true of lots of stuff.

    But I've been seeing commodities as a special case for a while. I think the paper has been dominating the physical for quite some time. Remember the congressional investigations during/after the last oil price spike? All the questions just went away after prices came back down, but there was some evidence of manipulation and stuff like tanker fleets loaded with product while futures traded on contango spread.

    Same thing more recently with industrial metals. Actually same thing with mortgages, even. What I think I'm saying is that, when the size of the derivative markets is (very, very) much larger than the underlying "stuff" strange things happen - even accidentally.
    Aug 6, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury - A Waiting Game That's Not Going To Pan Out [View article]
    You may be right about dividend elimination or at least reduction. I guess you see an extended period of $45 WTI as the basis for that forecast. But I'm not sure why you think asset sales are likely. Who else is operating EUR fields? And why would they be necessary? DNR is cash positive so the LOC is fine. No bond maturities for 5+ years.
    Aug 6, 2015. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Debt Level Should Scare You [View article]
    Sure, I agree. It may not be quite that simple though, since the solvency of any player depends on lots of things. Who is providing their LOC? Who holds their hedges? Not all this stuff is obvious as we learned in 2009.

    Eventually, the physical reality emerges (main street, oil, pipeline) but it can be damaged or altered by paper (Wall Street, futures, derivatives). Any uncertainty can really mess things up.

    Just thinking "out loud" a little. Sorry.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Stock Price, Harvoni Pricing, And The Threat Of Merck- A Physician's Perspective [View article]
    I think I know what you mean franky, but I'll add the obvious here. Greed is not good. Every man for himself is not good. Saying that these things are "good" is perverse. The regulated system of competing interests that we have in the US has worked pretty well for a little while (in historic terms). That pragmatic result says little about the human flaws it attempts to control.

    The problem is the human heart. No economic or political system can motivate through greed or fear what is lacking in morality and ethics.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Debt Level Should Scare You [View article]
    SR, I have a feeling that some folks on the street may have been quantifying counterparty risks on those contracts sector wide.
    Aug 6, 2015. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anthem-Cigna Is All About Accountable Care [View article]
    I'm not sure about the assumption in this article that seems to strictly equate ACO with Medicare Advantage. If that is not the thesis, then some recognition of how the other business segments are competitively related is surely relevant. MA is not even the largest market is it?

    Also, I'm not very sure why anyone thinks three well matched competitors is inferior to one very large and four growth oriented players.
    Aug 5, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RSO Preferred Stock - Why Did It Decline Recently? Consider This 10%+ Yielder [View article]
    Thank you very much for the article, and to those commenters sharing their actual DD. I'm long the C preferred, and I'm prepared for the possibility it isn't called. The float spread to LIBOR mitigates being in a really dumb situation down the road.

    It's possible that the Puerto Rico exposure and the future FRB interest rate outlook are combining to affect price action. Does anyone know if they are exposed to energy in their more traditional BDC book?

    I'll add that this one (and similar other elevated risk preferreds) are absolutely perfect for my non-equity barbell strategy.
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    I bought a few hundred shares @3.30. I say it bounces hard if oil cooperates. Only playing for a bounce to lower avg cost.
    Aug 5, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Stock Price, Harvoni Pricing, And The Threat Of Merck- A Physician's Perspective [View article]
    OMG. You handle 'em counselor. I'm trying to preserve my high view of human potential.
    Aug 5, 2015. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Core Laboratories Has A Great Business, But Is It Cheap Enough? [View article]
    Thanks for the article. While it is mentioned, the article is sanguine about debt levels that are worrisome. I don't have a position, but my DD would start with how debt is being managed. Returning capital to shareholders while carrying or increasing debt is NOT a good sign in my experience.
    Aug 5, 2015. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxalta: A Rare Undervalued Biopharmaceutical Company [View article]
    Noted, Chris. I know this suits more investors, but mine is a tax deferred hold so that's my selfishness coming out.
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    I didn't actually think it was directed at me, but the shoe fits. These are trying times for energy. Coal is a real mess, and the supposed beneficiary - natgas - is not much better. Then there's tight oil...

    Other than trading moves in existing long term positions (DNR, OXY, STO) I'm speculating in oil only through Canadian producers where there is at least a currency advantage.

    Oh yeah, I also have some long duration calls in CHK - also underwater.
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxalta: A Rare Undervalued Biopharmaceutical Company [View article]
    I'd prefer something other than an all stock deal (I hold this one in a tax deferred account), and I'd also like a better offer - which I think we will see. I'm long both companies, but a lot longer BXLT. I bought BAX last year because I liked the spin-off plan.
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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