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Qniform

Qniform
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  • Emerge Energy: Looking A Little Vulnerable [View article]
    Nice one Mike.
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil: U.S. Shale Overview And Company Update [View article]
    Another solid analysis MF. I'd simply point out that DPI (the international segment shown in your chart) is only part of the story. International is about half of total liquids production, but less than 20% of total gas. The Norwegian shelf is the bigger part of production in each case. That said, I like the huge Marcellus position. It's the place to be long term.
    Dec 25, 2014. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The General Retrenches: Wrapping Up The Year [View article]
    "•With the price now at what we see as a fair valuation, we think you should have bought when we told you to."

    The stock is 1% above the price quote on the date of your previous article. GIS can move 1% up or down daily. That's hardly a reason to say "I told you so" - especially given the fact that it was down almost the entire intervening time. Arguably the price is due to the overall upside index move lifting all boats and not any improvement in GIS prospects.
    Dec 25, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale S.A.'s Prospects Heavily Tied To China [View article]
    Thank you for the article. A couple suggestions:

    Statements like "VALE has been using free cash to create growth" need some explanation about what exactly you assert to be happening.

    Some general literacy editing would be desirable.
    Dec 25, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken New Wells Producing Less Confirmed [View article]
    Caution must be exercised in interpreting the decline curve from the starting rate. I read that there has been a recent move toward "throttling" (i.e. maintaining higher well pressures) a fracced well with the aim of increasing ultimate recoveries (before refracs). I can't remember the source right now, but I'll follow up with a link if it comes back to me.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How And Why I'm Averaging Into Energy Names On Sale [View article]
    IncomeYield, personally I don't think oil and oil stocks have bottomed yet. I could be wrong - wouldn't be the first or last time.

    The effect of prolonged sub-$70 oil on a given company is very complicated and depends on tons of variable inputs and ongoing decisions by many different parties (creditors, management, regulators, etc.). Better read tons of Qs and research reports if you want the best guesses.

    Dry powder? Sell high buy low. Unless you maintain a high cash allocation (like I do) for occasions like market busts.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak What? Christmastime In Hell? Part 1 [View article]
    The laundry list of tickers accomplished what (other than clicks for the author and ads for SA? There was nothing company specific here.
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How And Why I'm Averaging Into Energy Names On Sale [View article]
    Nice article Nicholas (kind of "stream of consciousness" style). As an old investor, I'd tell you that these larger moves take time, so you are doing the right thing scaling into positions. If I had to guess based on my experience, I'd say that there will be at least another leg lower in sector prices from this bounce. The bottom will actually end up out 2-6 months most likely. It's hard to time, so like you I'm buying now - but just nibbles.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Bad News For BP's Business Economic Loss Settlement [View article]
    Whooosh! (The sound of the point being missed by comments).
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Hedge Positions Of 30 U.S. Shale Producers [View article]
    Thanks for that work PP. I'm impressed.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Hedge Positions Of 30 U.S. Shale Producers [View article]
    Very nice article idea. As for mechanics, do the results calculate the net results of collars? Many hedges will be less effective if they fall below floor prices... A footnote that indicates either a 3-way or simple floor would be helpful.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Simple Ways To Beat The Market: Part 1 Of 5 [View article]
    I'm pleased to see you back Ploutos. I hope that those who would most benefit from your work actually see it. I'll spread the links around.

    BTW, I've continued (after a fashion) the momentum strategy you wrote about last year, and have experienced alpha outperformance in that account.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix - Orange Capital's 14.3% Stake A Positive Catalyst [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis MF. I would caution that drawing that line labeled "bottom" on the chart is probably the biggest unprovable assumption about risk with BXE. I would not be at all surprised to find the recent bounce in commodity prices to be a head fake. I'm still scaling in to BXE, CPE, PWE, and now (for something completely different) EXXI on a real gamble. In my mind I'm buying the resources rather than the companies.
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Mortgage Does Not Cut Its Dividend [View article]
    I agree about the mREIT caution JHH. I only hold the preferreds at this point - plenty risky even so.
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Big Oil Dividends Are Safe? [View article]
    I think the article is valuable, notwithstanding the errors in numbers due to regurgitation of the Yahoo reports without analysis (as others have noted there are payout ratio errors).

    What bothers me is the title. A company's ability to pay dividends does not render them "safe." A company's stated commitment to a dividend does not render it safe. A company's statement that there is sufficient backlog- cash flow- etc.- to cover a dividend through __/__/__ does not render it safe. A company's dividend history does not render it safe. A BOD has a fiduciary duty to make decisions about dividend payout in light of the ongoing business climate and financial needs as time goes on.

    I think that about covers it. Nevertheless, there will be the usual cries about dishonesty, calls for lawsuits, and other general handwringing here on SA if dividends are lowered or suspended by any company.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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