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  • Meridian Bioscience - What Did 2015 Bring?  [View article]
    While I'm long VIVO, I'm certainly not adding at these levels. The share price is richly valued for such slow growth. I'm selling ITM calls, and would write puts on a 20%-25% pull back.
    Jan 1, 2016. 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Less Volatility And Better Returns  [View article]
    It's important to understand the difference between beta and volatility in general when constructing your portfolio. Beta is the amount of movement with reference to an index, whereas volatility measures the price movement in terms of standard deviation without that external reference. Both measures are important.
    Dec 30, 2015. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Less Volatility And Better Returns  [View article]
    Thanks for the article. InvestSpy was a resource I hadn't seen. For more flexibility in analyzing correlation over time periods (but limited to 12 holdings) check http://tinyurl.com/jg8...
    Dec 29, 2015. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Mistakes In The Execution Of The Dividend Growth Investing Strategy  [View article]
    Mark, you're right about the 20 year periods. I apologize. I conflated the safe portfolio withdrawal analyses (that go to zero quickly) I've seen in several periods.

    I do like the Crestmont site's info. It does take some effort to understand exactly what the chart is showing, but it is extremely useful if you do.
    Dec 26, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Mistakes In The Execution Of The Dividend Growth Investing Strategy  [View article]
    Not true Mark. See http://bit.ly/1ItEaP7

    I chose the tax exempt real return for the best case scenario, and as you can see, there have been several 20 year real return periods that lost money. Many more 10 and 15 year real returns were losers.

    Taxable returns are worse, obviously - and this ignores the portfolio consequences when distributions and/or withdrawals occur during down years at the beginning of the periods.
    Dec 25, 2015. 12:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - A Significantly Overvalued Royalty Trust  [View article]
    I guess my point boils down to having a process that supports the result. If the author had said sell because there was a Martian invasion coming, would you feel the same?
    Dec 22, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - A Significantly Overvalued Royalty Trust  [View article]
    I would point you to my comments above for recommendations.

    I'd also recommend learning exactly how reserves are estimated (and valued). Are you aware that the actual quantity of reported reserves changes according to commodity price? For instance, according to SEC rules the reported reserves (in barrels) could change from X to .5X based only on lower commodity price? Even with no extraction or new discovery, reported reserves fluctuate based on whether the commodity price allows profitable extraction. This author ignored that entire process. You can't talk about reserves without talking about commodity price. This author demonstrated zero understanding of the industry in general or RTs in particular.

    For a very detailed process, I recommend http://mcdep.com. But remember to always question the economic assumptions, even this industry expert's.
    Dec 21, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - A Significantly Overvalued Royalty Trust  [View article]
    Don, the article did not predict a commodity price crash. That is the reason for the price declines in the entire sector. Therefore no special sagacity was demonstrated.
    Dec 20, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Are Utility Dividends Any Safer?  [View article]
    Indeed toneguru. And in addition to the differences in debt, there is a huge difference in the cost and flexibility of the assets that deliver the product to point of demand.
    Dec 18, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle: A Chimera Or The Real Deal  [View article]
    Great article Mr. Hochfeld. I think that my take-away is to watch for the right environment where ORCL can return to the growth through acquisition route. It's not unreasonable to anticipate an environment where the price multiples of potential targets decline, similar to the situation ~10 years ago when they executed such a strategy well - assuming, of course, that they maintain the balance sheet necessary to take advantage of the opportunities that might come along.
    Dec 17, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Wrong: The Impact Of Kinder Morgan's Dividend Cut  [View article]
    "Dropping share price alone tells you NOTHING."

    It certainly won't if you aren't listening.
    Dec 12, 2015. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Crude Awakening Awaits Bottom Fishers Of The Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Lois, first of all management can't make such a promise even if the are sincere in their intentions. Business conditions are not under their control, and any investor should recognize that. Investments are risky.

    Second, Kinder's record is not good. Check out his actions taking the organization private ~10 years ago - lots of people burned, suing, etc. Then, the roll up of the MLP - lots of people burned with tax bills, etc.

    This latest is right in character. Given the above record, I've never understood why there is the Kinder hero worship, let alone the credence given authors like DAC who have no demonstrated ability to do anything but produce articles as a profession.
    Dec 10, 2015. 02:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Crude Awakening Awaits Bottom Fishers Of The Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Nimnode, I don't at all mind an about face. However, if you review how condescending (and occasionally rude) the author was in his previous article comment streams it is hard to just view this in terms of a simple change of mind based on new information. And I'm not surprised about the absence of apology, given the strictly emotional basis for his defense of the position and its subsequent sale.
    Dec 9, 2015. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Crude Awakening Awaits Bottom Fishers Of The Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Or 3 months ago, or six months ago, CEFspert. The recent reversals in bullish comments and articles represent maximum discomfort from cognitive dissonance. While the fundamentals haven't changed, I suspect we may have seen the washout on volume necessary for trend reversal. I'm not yet a buyer yet because the fundamentals can still get worse, but at least the irrational complacency in MLP (and KMI) land is now apparent.
    Dec 9, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Don't Drink The Kool-Aid  [View article]
    JK, this is where the usual crowd usually disappears from the comment streams. Or it turns out like Orwell's 1984: "We are at war with Eurasia" (we don't own KMI). "We have always been at war with Eurasia" (we never liked KMI).
    Dec 9, 2015. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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