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Qniform

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  • Declining Oil Prices Create Substantial Opportunity For Yield In Offshore Drillers [View article]
    Hess (and probably Apache too despite hedged statements) are looking for ways to exit the North Sea assets they hold. These fields will carry heavy decommissioning costs. While this activity will still require platforms, it may not be the type that are currently under contract. Some DD is advised if this is a significant area for a prospective investment.
    Oct 19, 2014. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxter International: A Post-Earnings Buy As A Spin-Off Approaches [View article]
    Thank you for an informative article. I agree with your recommendation and with the strategy of scaling in to a position. One way to do this is to write puts at attractive entry prices. My long term basis is below $55, and I sell put options on weakness. So far none have exercised, although some NOV$67.50 look like they will.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Myths About SeaDrill That Could Cost You Real Money [View article]
    It depends on your assumptions about oil price (as does every point in this article). If one thinks the oil commodity price is predictable or will continue a certain price behavior, then they are essentially speculating in the futures market. People who do that are usually broke after a while.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Seems To Be Overestimating Seadrill's Risk [View article]
    I agree. I cashed out a profitable long term position in NE a couple months ago and bought NADL, SDRL, and PACD over the past few days. Too early, but I'm all right with the entry levels.

    I also went long DNOW, MRC, NOV, DRQ, and FLS.
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #44 [View instapost]
    I don't know what you guys are looking at. IWM and S&P 600 have outperformed SPY over the past 5 days.
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Seems To Be Overestimating Seadrill's Risk [View article]
    "For the large energy companies - I.e. XOM, CVX, BP, etc. they will have to drill in DW & UDW because that is where they will find the size of oil reserves they need to replace their annual production numbers."

    So how does that lead to weakness in offshore? It's ... um... counterintuitive. I absolutely agree that oil service and offshore is a buy right now. But the cited reasons for the weakness are silly.
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Seems To Be Overestimating Seadrill's Risk [View article]
    Perhaps the author will explain how the offshore drilling market weakness can be traced to oil and gas companies operating in steep decline North American shale plays (1st paragraph)?

    Is the contention that since E&Ps are spending/wasting so much in shale there isn't enough money for offshore?

    Is the contention that offshore drillers operate in North American shale plays?
    Oct 17, 2014. 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #44 [View instapost]
    The challenge to corp earnings (esp the mega caps and their weighting in major indexes) will be dollar strength and Euro zone weakness. Not to mention China.

    Bonds at 2% and stocks at 5%-6% for the intermediate term. B Gross is prob right IMO.
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell General Mills And Buy Procter & Gamble [View article]
    While I believe both to be fully valued at this point, on a relative basis GIS is/was valued at least 10% less on both a TTM PE and forward PE basis. EV/Rev and EV/EBITDA are at least twice that difference. If I'm going to make a "swap" I would expect to find the reverse situation to justify the move, tax considerations aside (even an advantaged CG rate makes the comparison even worse).
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Could Be Worth A Lot More Than Wall Street Is Giving It Credit For [View article]
    No worries. I think that CPE has a very large upside given two assumptions: that the oil pricing does not fall (and remain long) below $85, and that they are smart about how they develop their prime acreage (that they concentrate on the lowest lift cost assets). There are far more marginal producers who will be below economic cost at these price/cost levels.

    Having said that, the problem in the E&P space is that these guys are drill, drill, drill, by default. This wildcatter mentality is risky to their (and industry) health.
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell General Mills And Buy Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Style is it? This was sell low and buy high I think. While a long enough horizon forgives stuff like this, your picture suggests that you might need a shorter term view.
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Could Be Worth A Lot More Than Wall Street Is Giving It Credit For [View article]
    It's clearly labeled FY2015. I don't know what you're looking at. And anyway, what is your point?
    Oct 16, 2014. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Could Be Worth A Lot More Than Wall Street Is Giving It Credit For [View article]
    There is a clear error in the size of the 2015 hedge. 317 mm barrels is TWICE an order of magnitude above their entire proved reserves. The 2014 exit rate would produce annual production of around 2.6mm BOE. Slide 18 of the current presentation here http://bit.ly/11nJG17 shows FY2015 43% hedged (3000 bbl/day) at 91.03.
    Oct 15, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #44 [View instapost]
    RD, the administration loves the Ebola story. It displaces many other stories which show a pretty bad record at dealing with .... well, fill in the blank.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Forgotten Issue Facing Seadrill [View article]
    Delivery dates are typically subject to negotiation. It would be interesting for the author to follow up on this good work with a look at how many yards are involved in the builds. Often a token milestone payment will allow a delivery slow down.
    Oct 14, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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