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Qniform

Qniform
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  • The Best Pharma ETF [View article]
    Considering that outperformance can also denote less decline during a market correction, I think Pharma/Biotech and Medical Device sectors are good defensive positions. But they will also correct.
    Oct 1, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Will ConocoPhillips Gain From Foster Creek? [View article]
    You're right Kal. After the divestiture of refining, COP is kind of unique. But - it still has peers if only by similar market cap. You mentioned EOG - down nearly 7% in 30 days vs. COP down less than 4%. QED.

    EOG may be right about preserving assets until better prices come back, but the street clearly doesn't like it.
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LUKOIL's Polar Bears Are Lost In The Arctic [View article]
    Bigger business stories were about William Browder the Sakhalin II contract - but there have been a number of foreign businessmen inexplicably murdered as well. Tough place.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Will ConocoPhillips Gain From Foster Creek? [View article]
    JS, you need to distinguish stock action that is part of a sector wide decline from the fundamentals of a single company. If you chart COP comps over the last month, you'll see that it has fallen less than peers.
    Sep 29, 2014. 06:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: What Would Lord Palmerston Do? [View article]
    Ice conditions in the Kara Sea limit drilling duration to about 3 months/year. Moving back and forth from there to Norwegian waters was anticipated under the deals which is why their fleet status reports show overlap between Rosneft and Exxon, IMO. Thus it would appear that only 25% of West Alpha revenue is at risk prior to 2015/2016.

    As for considering Fredrickson's personal wealth as SDRL liquidity, that's a stretch.
    Sep 29, 2014. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LUKOIL's Polar Bears Are Lost In The Arctic [View article]
    Joshua, this is really outstanding work. The point about political risk in the west is very well noted but in a way it lends further support to my grave reservations about investing in LUKOY (or any Russian domiciled company). It's possible that a U.S. administration could prohibit ownership of Russian companies (just like it did with Cuba for decades).

    Further, Vlad is capable of just about anything. Jer. 17:9 seems to be his life verse, and there is no one to curb his power for the foreseeable future. It is a not insignificant possibility that he would see all the attributes that make LUKOY attractive as a reason to trump up charges against Alekperov. He has done it before and he could do it again. No moral question exists for him, only simple political calculus. I don't think there's any question he could get away with it.

    Normally I consider big energy companies to be among the safest in my portfolio, but for all these reasons I would weight LUKOY among the very risky positions. Nevertheless, your excellent work has convinced me that the risk may be worthwhile. Thank you again for the article.
    Sep 28, 2014. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Will ConocoPhillips Gain From Foster Creek? [View article]
    One comment on analysts and a suggestion for the author:

    Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator. When ratings move into buy territory the move is likely over. When they are in sell territory, it's about time to buy. However, they're not much help as to timing.

    I would really find it helpful if authors would actually research production cost/bbl when they write about specific oilfield plays. Oil sands (along with other unconventional plays like shale and UDW) are some of the highest cost assets to operate, and it would be good to understand their economics.

    Thanks for a good article.
    Sep 28, 2014. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Healthcare Dogs: 12% To 35% September Upsides, 1 Runt Hits 75% [View article]
    Not only does ARNA not pay dividends (see article summary bullet points), but it isn't even profitable.
    Sep 27, 2014. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Healthcare Dogs: 12% To 35% September Upsides, 1 Runt Hits 75% [View article]
    They are similar to a royalty trust, and their royalties expire in 2015. They are trying to morph into a biotech PE outfit, but it's anyone's guess if that will work. They certainly won't cover the current dividend much longer.
    Sep 27, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Healthcare Dogs: 12% To 35% September Upsides, 1 Runt Hits 75% [View article]
    "cursory check using FastGraps [sic]" and "will be automatically placed on Avoid List"

    That fits.
    Sep 27, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling Company Is Not As Valuable As It Seems [View article]
    Thanks for the input. I mostly agree but must point out that there is a risk weighted rate at which someone will step in. That rate has been dropping over the last 18 months in any number of transactions that (to me) are reminiscent of 2007. Further, I think that the premium assets are already contracted, so it would only be a matter of the market absorbing one highly advanced drillship - and I know Fredrickson would be all over it at any reasonable price. VTG is a little to thin for me right now, but an announcement of a contract for Cobalt would justify a small position. GLTA.
    Sep 26, 2014. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vantage Drilling Company Is Not As Valuable As It Seems [View article]
    C'mon. Lenders are again financing ANYTHING right now. Plus the loans are 1st tier secured by premium assets.
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    conkjc, I hear you. A couple things though:

    <the dividend income thrown off by these holdings would have allowed the long term investor to totally ignore the market noise>

    <I prefer having a reliable income source>

    Unless you reinvested all the dividends the results would have been woefully short of the index results. Now neither of us know how sales of the (hypothetical) index shares would have affected that result, but I suspect that it would have been much less since dividends contributed much less to that long term result.

    And sure, if we start saying that 'surely other stocks would have been chosen too' we lose all touch with any ability to quantify a comparison, as the article laudably attempted to do.
    Sep 25, 2014. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Why A Bird In The Hand Is Worth More Than 2 In The Bush [View article]
    While I agree with the conclusion about the prospect for Kinder Morgan, the prognosis for higher rates is FAR from a foregone conclusion. Admittedly the Fed would like to be able to raise rates - the question is will they be able to do so? Deflationary pressures in EU and China and just about everywhere else argue not. Further, some would say that the recovery here is not all that robust.

    This was released before the latest Fed announcement. Compare what didn't happen with what it says. http://bit.ly/1n5zxA1
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Sheesh, is that the best DGI news there is? That your list did 0.55% better than the now available index?

    So my conclusion is that right now the index is a better choice if not for simplicity, but to have a single trade vs. whatever your list will include. I'm not even going to argue the pitfalls of investor psychology applied to each individual name, or what choices are picked going forward from now.
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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