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  • What Happened In June: Save The MLPs! [View article]
    MLP distributions almost always lower cost basis, and to the extent they do gains are created.
    Jul 12, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Weekender [View article]
    Nice breadth of coverage, but why is the article repeated? It's a slog if read twice... :)
    Jul 12, 2015. 11:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Is The Cheaper Version Of Orchid Island Capital [View article]
    Aha. Sorry I missed the earlier article - that was a good idea.
    Jul 12, 2015. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Is The Cheaper Version Of Orchid Island Capital [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I appreciate these kinds of comparisons since information is a good thing and interpretation challenges thinking about methodology.

    One of the lower risk strategies which come to mind is setting up a pair trade, like long AGNC short ORC.
    Jul 11, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Legacy Reserves LP - A Shift To Natural Gas [View article]
    I'm much more willing to play this upstream MLP space using the cumulative preferred stocks which offer a more secure pay out and around 25% capital gain upside. I sold the common stocks in November and bought LGCYO, ARPD, BBEPP, etc. in March. Unless there is a BK, they will pay all distributions even if temporarily suspended during an extended duration of low commodity prices.
    Jul 11, 2015. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Growth And Penchant Of Rewarding Shareholders Earn General Mills A Bullish Thesis [View article]
    Forward consensus earnings are not a solid basis for investment. Here are the consensus estimates from 2012:

    2014 - $3.06
    2015 - $3.35
    2016 - $3.75

    So we suddenly expect a 2015 pace of $3.00 to be the basis for optimism? Prophesy and management sugar coating (heh) are notoriously unreliable.

    Disclosure: I'm still long GIS, but sold 70% of the position ~$57. I'm a buyer again starting lightly ~ $48.
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Just Changed The Game [View article]
    Absent any data defining what a "working" chip is (what processes were run?) and "power" (scale is not necessarily power without some actual metric of efficiency), this stuff sounds like press placements from the IBM PR dept. They got what was sought in this article and the cited links.
    Jul 9, 2015. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pipeline Consolidation Could Be Coming For Spectra Energy [View article]
    I like all the FERC regulated interstate pipes that connect the Marcellus and Utica to the GoM. I'm long SE, WMB, KMI (lightened due to valuation) and added CPGX. I agree that these pipes are extremely valuable due to my long term macro thesis about gas as the industrial power fuel of the future.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI - It's Time To Sign The Back Of The Lottery Ticket [View article]
    The trade is long debt and short common stock. And be careful, because any provider can step in and subordinate your "senior" unsecured debt if management decides their paychecks are essential.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams: Why Reject A 32% Premium Bid? [View article]
    It's problematic, isn't it gabby1945? Normally I'd be comparing EV/EBITDA, but since the companies are different structures (MLP vs. C corp) that's out the window. We're reduced to stripping out the market cap component for comparison, and it's a rapidly changing number. Warren certainly knows this and is relying on it to increase his odds for a successful hostile bid.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams: Why Reject A 32% Premium Bid? [View article]
    Pablomike, that is the point, isn't it? The offer should be at 1.25x just to account for the market cap differential (not adding any buy out premium or guessing about growth potential). Suddenly, a 30% premium isn't really that big.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Regions Financial's Stock Worth Considering Right Now? [View article]
    I agree Adam. WFC and USB (& maybe PNC) are the only larger institutions I'd consider right now but they are at relatively large valuations compared to their Canadian peers. Since the CAD/USD currency differential is in my favor, I'm buying them over thew US sector.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer may go hostile for Williams Cos. [View news story]
    IMO, the real pre-merger value differential is close to 1.25x based on a smoothed share price of $60 for ETE and $55 for WMB. That translates to $32.5b for the former, and $42.25b for the latter. THEN a buy out premium should be applied. The deal as it stands takes advantage of a (temporary) inflated ETE stock price relative to WMB. Look at their deal metrics - why is it so accretive? Doh.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Is Not Thrilled With This Net Lease Merger, Neither Am I [View article]
    wex2, this is a good example of how "Mr Market's" (how I dislike that appellation!) reaction is often misinterpreted. I used this dip to get somewhat longer GPT. I have a great deal of confidence in Dugan et al. Do you have any thoughts about how this merger affects the management incentive payout levels?
    Jul 7, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Battle For Williams Heats Up [View article]
    The problem with this one is that we are valuing a C corp in comparison with a MLP. This is extremely difficult because (conventional wisdom says) the usual business metrics like EPS and leverage really don't apply to MLPs. Regardless of whether one completely buys that argument, it makes this deal obscure - and I think ETE is relying on that.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment