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  • Williams Does Not Quack Like A Duck [View article]
    Good information, and cleverly presented. Thank you.
    May 22, 2015. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HollyFrontier declares $0.33 dividend [View news story]
    They only announced the policy change re: the special dividend being redirected into share repurchases recently - so no, don't expect it back unless you see the return of the very high WTI/Brent differentials and crack spreads that produced those excess profits.

    The real story is their use of their MLP to cover investments which increase EBITDA. They are already very conservative with debt, so this is a dynamic strategy.
    May 21, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West to sell more assets, renegotiate debt, fight accounting scandal [View news story]
    DVL, you keep showing up in PWE comments with no apparent connection. Did you lose a bunch of money or something?

    FYI, did you know your profile shows this link as a company connection? It's total gibberish.
    May 21, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Denbury Resources Is A Good Investment Despite Its Massive Decline [View article]
    Thanks for a good snapshot of the EOR business. I suggest a better link for what exactly 4D seismic modeling is here
    May 20, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cash Is King [View article]

    May 20, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Achillion inks collaboration deal with J&J's Janssen Pharmaceuticals in hep C [View news story]
    My take away is that the Hep C market is very large. It will be here for years, and MRK, BMY, and now JNJ want a piece. The question is whether they will make it to the finish line with similar efficacy and adverse event profile.
    May 20, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Costco to pay near zero in new credit card deal [View news story]
    CM, first AXP could not "refuse." It wasn't a request but a contract requirement. Second, it isn't a matter of break even on the transaction cost since there is a requirement for a minimum cash back on the purchase that went as high as 4%. Yes, it's true that there were other transaction fees and return on the loan portfolio that would offset that situation. It was that calculation that management made and decided that they could make better returns in other deals. I certainly don't fault them, it's their job.

    We'll see if they're right. Under no circumstances will I be buying C based on the deal they made.
    May 20, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Johnson & Johnson's Fair Value [View article]
    Thanks for the link 622. I've read about speed of treatment in other contexts, and it doesn't seem to make much difference to prescribers, all other things being equal (i.e. similar efficacy, side effects, etc.). I suppose if it were shown that treatment compliance improved it could be a discriminator.
    May 20, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Johnson & Johnson's Fair Value [View article]
    It will be interesting to see the market reaction to their entry into the Hep C space via the ACHN deal. You're long GILD too, right?
    May 20, 2015. 01:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Johnson & Johnson's Fair Value [View article]
    TG, since you specify "blue chip" I would suggest that there is nothing to be had at good prices right now except energy names - and they are really only at fair value, bargains by comparison. Majors like XOM, CVX, RDS are pretty safe, but "superb dividend growth" is always subject to future conditions. Consider COP and OXY in the next tier down. Also, in the service sector consider NOV and HP - but there may be better entry points ahead for this sector, so consider scaling in.

    Another sector to consider is P&C insurers like CB, RLI, TRV. Also not bargains, but not too extreme. Good luck.
    May 19, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Riding The Volatility [View article]
    richbar, if you are in individual bonds you already know your YTW, and there is only upside from that, right? The diversification benefit is also an upside in scenarios where the bonds outperform equity and you rebalance advantageously. I find your thinking to be cogent.

    For my part, I use stuff like TLT, IEF, IEI, etc. When folks here on SA talk about there being "no point in a 2% yield," it's clear they don't understand that it is the relative movements that count (i.e. what a 1/4 point move can do to TLT). This is why the boring bond/stock mix does so well.

    As for AGNC, I use it on the risky end of a fixed income barbell. Good enough for that.
    May 19, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives To Fortescue Metals' Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore [View article]
    The only way I play iron is MSB. The local supply beats the cost of import transportation. No matter what happens to Cliffs, someone will operate this high quality mineral source with access to cheap local transport.
    May 19, 2015. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aetna Lacks The Earnings Growth Expectations For My IRA [View article]
    I was surprised at the conclusion. You looked at a forward earnings expectation which you characterized as robust and concluded that it doesn't have the ability to grow earnings. Are you using some measure beyond a year that you said nothing about in the article?

    For my part, I think forward estimates are suspect and are easily manipulated by the sell side. OTOH, seeing the success with which AET has accommodated its business plan to the ACA environment gives me more confidence about earnings strength than a pick like NOV, which is at the mercy of a commodity price environment.

    Disclosure: I'm long AET and NOV.
    May 18, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Johnson & Johnson's Fair Value [View article]
    Because the dividend appeals to them. I've begun to think it's a paycheck mindset.
    May 18, 2015. 11:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASCO abstract-stoked investors bid up Oncothyreon [View news story]
    "Overeager punters...?" I have no position in ONTY, but it would seem to me that such a characterization would be more appropriate if it were quoting someone rather than an assessment by SA editor Douglas W. House - unless some expertise beyond his vague SA profile were cited.
    May 18, 2015. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment