Seeking Alpha

Qniform

Qniform
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Qniform's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Why Dividend Growth Investing Is Not Always Best [View article]
    Well, I guess I'll simply bow out of the discussion. Both you and Geekette have introduced other variables which confuse the point, which was to illustrate the compounding of WACC in equally valued well-run companies.

    Pointing out that the example does not exist in the real world begs the question, and the idea that reinvestment of dividends results in the same return ignores the fact that the companies (as ideally presented) would compound that return more than your additional shares (remember that the company receives no capital from your investment in the secondary market).

    Thanks for the discussion, and good luck.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And The Award For World's Best Performing Stock Between 1968-2014 Goes To... [View article]
    Knowing the future would be nice, yes kefia. It would also be interesting to understand the period selected. How about 1930-1976? 1950-1996? If one starts examining random 46 year periods from the past, it may become apparent that it is... irrelevant. It seems to make folks feel good though.
    Jul 31, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investing Is Not Always Best [View article]
    L, you quibble with the terms of my example which begs the question. The reason we are even discussing this is that the pure case doesn't exist. Why not try to deal with the question as if it did? Then the answer is clear. For what that is worth...

    I'll repeat: the ROA, ROE, and multiple on WACC means that paying out capital as a dividend MUST result in lower value creation in the case as I stated it. Extreme examples are helpful to illustrate the point.

    I'm certainly not arguing that companies should not pay dividends, nor that there are "perceptual advantages" to those who do - heck, look at these acolytes on SA!
    Jul 31, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investing Is Not Always Best [View article]
    Lobeta, I'd agree that MM's comment may have been poorly stated BUT:

    Consider two hypothetical identical companies priced with equal efficiency by the market. Each has nice ROA, ROE, etc. and is returning 2.5x their WACC. It is a mathematical certainty that the one that does not pay a dividend will have a greater share price appreciation vs the dividend payer. If you compare the universe of dividend payers with the universe of non-dividend payers you are including the entire (statistically significant) subset of companies with negative earnings.

    I don't understand why this issue is so consistently ignored in these discussions, and forgive me, I'm NOT saying you ignored it. I bring it up because it is the underlying issue in both MM and your comments, IMO.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy Services: Weathering The Downturn And Preparing For The Recovery [View article]
    EMES is actually in value territory now. Since it is a variable dividend MLP, expect, well, variability.

    One of the reasons that it fell so hard was that it was a momo darling last year.
    Jul 31, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dril-Quip misses by $0.20, misses on revenue [View news story]
    It was actually a pretty good quarter, and very steady guidance. I like the way management operates.
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Is A Risky Play [View article]
    Please excuse me for pointing out that the author was recommending NOV on 11/4/14, when the commodity price direction direction was already pretty clear. In his 2/4/15 article the story changed after the majority of the share price loss had occurred and it was not rocket science to foresee earnings challenges. The thesis of this article depends on what the future commodity price will be, which no one knows - but the current levels are likely reflected in the share price now.

    Barring new commodity lows the stock is unlikely to make new lows, and thus this would actually be the time to be buying NOV. While it is hard to predict the duration of this correction it is not hard to say that with a 50% correction already completed, the upside may well eclipse the downside risk. There is likely more risk in other sectors.
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:42 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Percent Of Your Return Is From Dividends? [View article]
    Alex, I sincerely doubt six was joking. I'd have to check all comments to see if he ever has, but I can't remember any such attempts. Quite the contrary in fact.
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Letter To Breitburn Energy Partners [View article]
    DHL-2, a transfer of ownership would not extinguish the accumulated dividends owed. http://tinyurl.com/o46...
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Baxter Guidance Portending A Dividend Cut? [View article]
    Why not BDX, MDT? Maybe there is more than a dividend to consider? Maybe if you wanted 1.5x - 2x the ROA and ROE? At a lower P/E multiple?

    Of course, the dividend metric is lacking - but given what they said after announcing the spin off I don't understand why there was so much confusion about what they were doing.
    Jul 30, 2015. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    I agree with that PIA (BTW, great name and profile). The author you cite is a bellwether for contrarian investors.
    Jul 29, 2015. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Omeros Corporation: Not Light On Simons' Secret Sauce [View article]
    I'm long OMER, but it seems that a lot of emphasis has been placed on Renaissance Technologies tiny position...
    Jul 29, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could U.S. Shale Oil Companies Be The Next Coal Companies In Time? [View article]
    RD, I'm with you on the reversion to mean when the emotion drives extremes. I don't see the volumes indicating that as yet. OTOH I suspect our trade horizons are different if you play short term (less than 3-4 month) bounces. I have said that there would be a re-test of the commodity lows seen earlier this year, and I don't rule out a new low. THAT would likely produce the volumes I look for. I mention this, because it is a scenario that you didn't mention that would not produce a good outcome here.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Shooting For A 7% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    I've made a few trades in the common, but don't hold very much. I picked up quite a bit of the preferred, and I'll lighten up as it moves toward par after dividend reinstatement on the common.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties Gets A New Name [View article]
    BDR, this site has a lot of resources to get up to speed on the asset type. http://tinyurl.com/q5y...
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,496 Comments
2,761 Likes