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expatsp

expatsp
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Santa Claus Rally? [View article]
    Thanks as always, Jeff. I'm very much looking forward to your analysis on oil and oil stocks, whenever you're ready to share it with the wider world.
    Dec 7, 2014. 05:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil Is The New Swing-Producer: Output Forecast To 2020 Will Make Saudi Arabia Very Happy [View article]
    Great article, Andrew, and great to see you back on SA.
    Dec 1, 2014. 07:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth: Seeking Alpha Style Vs. The Professional [View article]
    Thanks, Spangler. So it's pre-December 2002 underperformance maybe doesn't count for its current strategy.

    Anyone know any actively managed dividend-focused funds out there with a longer-term record?
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth: Seeking Alpha Style Vs. The Professional [View article]
    P.S. Looking at VDIGX's chart on M*, since inception in 1992 it has underperformed the S&P pretty significantly:
    http://bit.ly/1yRtIHs

    (On the chart that appears, click "maximum" on the upper right to get from 10 year returns to since inception returns.)

    That doesn't mean it's a bad fund or that it won't outperform in the next 22 years, but it makes me think that perhaps outperfoming the index isn't so easy, if one of the best managers around (Wellington), with a low-cost and sensible strategy, has failed to do it.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth: Seeking Alpha Style Vs. The Professional [View article]
    Dividend stocks have had a tail wind from the last few decades of declining inflatoin and declining interesting rates. If (a big if, in the current sluggish global economy) interest rates start a secular trend upwards, might not dividend stocks suffer more than growth oriented stocks whose payouts are in the future? What if Yellen overdoes it on waiting to raise rates and inflation gets a bit high?

    My question isn't rhetorical, I genuinely don't know the answer. I just hestitate to accept backwards looking studies that only study the last 10 or 20 years, which may or may be not be a good model for the next twenty.

    But thanks very much for this stimulating article!
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Shame on you, sir. No one's ever perfect on short-term market calls, but Jeff's short-term "Felix" forecasts have been right more often than not, and his medium-term theme, that we are in a bull market, has been spot on. If you've been listening to him the past few years, you've made a lot of money.

    He clearly explains his logic, provides the data that he uses to arrive at his conclusions, and offers links for further research. He also clearly states that his short-term Felix calls are subject to change during the week, as they should be since data changes.

    Finally, he offers all this work to us on SA without charging us. He is presumably looking for clients, but to look for clients by openly presenting your work, results, and thought processes is a honorable way to go about it.
    Nov 3, 2014. 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Homes Sales: September Report Confirms That The Data Is Unreliable [View article]
    I've been following bbro for a year, maybe two, and I have found him very helpful and usually spot on. His "shots" at those predicting gloom and doom have helped keep me nearly fully invested for this recent bull market, while his frequent citations of the data he follows to assess the risks of recession are also helpful to me.

    As far as I can tell, he's a private investor, not selling any services, so he has no need to share his portfolio with us -- though I admit I'd be interested to see it, because I suspect it would be worth imitating. In any casee e has been sharing some wisdom, IMHO, and I've benefitted from it.

    Btw, I don't know bbro, or anything about him, except from his comments. I don't even know if he's a "he."
    Oct 26, 2014. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #46 [View instapost]
    Tack:

    Traders in Sao Paulo, where I live, say that bets are right now 70 - 30 (not 100%) on a Rousseff victory. So, if she indeed wins, those 30% will be covering and there will still be some short-term downside.

    What happens to Brazilian companies after a Rousseff win will depend on policy. If she doubles down on her current policies, as she promised in the campaign, then we're probably heading, well, not to becoming Cuba or Venezuela, but Argentina.

    If, on the other hand, she proves pragmatic, and her campaign rhetoric was just rhetoric -- no incumbent ever likes to admit his or her policy's failure during an election, even if he or she secretly knows it -- then yes, Brazil's got a lot of upside.

    And prices are so low now that even if she muddles through, fixing things on the edges, you might make a little money or at least not lose much.

    So I think your bets on Brazil might well prove profitable -- and if Aecio Neves wins, Monday is going to be the biggest up day in the history of Brazilian markets -- but I don't think the markets are idiots here. Big institutional investors dominate Brazil's stock, currency, and fixed-income trading. There's a lot of potential upside but also a lot of potential downside. Assets are priced accordingly.
    Oct 24, 2014. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The¬†Draghi Grand Plan 2.0 [View article]
    I think Cam means what he says. If there's a market run on France, no one's checkbook is big enough to bail it out. So they have to get growth and confidence to return before things approach a crisis.
    Oct 24, 2014. 06:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #43 [View instapost]
    Thanks as always for your thoughts, Tack.
    Oct 9, 2014. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #43 [View instapost]
    Tack,
    Do you have a buy list if the correction continues? I wonder what you think of some high-yielding names in the energy sector, such as the offshore drillers (ESV, etc.)
    Oct 9, 2014. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The 2 Pillars Of Full-Cycle Investing [View article]
    Thanks for the response, bbro. Interesting.
    Sep 9, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The 2 Pillars Of Full-Cycle Investing [View article]
    Is that a typo, bbro, or are you really using HSGFX (Hussman's fund) vs the SPY to give a market signal? If so, that shows quite a lot of confidence that Hussman's actions will consistently indicate... something. What might that be?
    Sep 9, 2014. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller's CAPE Data Suggest S&P 3,500 In 5 Years [View article]
    Antiqueron,
    This other poster, "petrarch," who I've been following to great profit for years, gave this advice to someone else in your position, which is pretty much common sense, and all the better for it:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 6, 2014. 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller's CAPE Data Suggest S&P 3,500 In 5 Years [View article]
    Stimulating thoughts, Tom. Nice to see you posting you again.
    Jul 6, 2014. 07:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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