Seeking Alpha

expatsp

expatsp
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View expatsp's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Long Will The Deflation-Driven Stock Market Correction Last? [View article]
    When I first saw this post, I thought you were agreeing with the quote, then I clicked the link... Thanks as always for your concise and data-driven comments, bbro.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BUBBLEOMIX Says Oil Will Bottom At $60 Brent And Won't See $90 Until 2018: Meanwhile The Saudi's Are Saying 'Thank You Very Much' [View article]
    How about an update, Andrew?
    Aug 16, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers - Some Comparative Metrics And 2015-16 Outlook [View article]
    Karl,

    Great article, thanks. It might be interesting too to compare when these companies have to make big debt payments. ORIG is only in 2017, according to your other article. ESV, according to a Credit Suisse report, doesn't have any big debt payments until 2019 -- a big plus in the current environment.
    Aug 5, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Early to restructure, yes. Early to hoard your liquidity in case cheap oil lasts through 2017 (not the most likely scenario, IMHO, but also not impossible), no, not early.
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Make no mistake, I'm long ORIG (with a small speculative position) and want to think you're right, but the remarks from VTG's CC are relevant for showing how bad the ultra deepwater market is.

    If ORIG's management is holding back from any kind of buyback for now, it might be a sign that they too think the market is super grim and fear that it will remain so for a while.

    ORIG's gotta focus on being a survivor. If so, we'll all make money. Their recent actions (which were well-timed yes) indicate to me that's indeed their focus.
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    I hope you're right, Bulldog, as of yesterday I'm a shareholder too! But I'm more concerned about where the stock will be in a couple of years than in a couple of months, so before they do any stock buybacks, I'd like them to be very sure that even in a worst case scenario they can survive.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Bonds could make sense, yes, I should have made that clear, I was responding to Mr. Lessner's suggestion that they buy back shares.

    I don't know enough to know if it makes sense to buy back bonds at 80% of face value or to hold on to cash, which gives more flexibility, especially since they don't have enough cash to retire the entire issue.

    In the end it's a detail, though. As I see it (and I know less than most of you here, so I will happily be corrected) the only question that matters is if they survive until 2017 without a restructuring, in which case they should be making plenty of money even without a one-time gain from opportunistic bond buying.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig - A Solid Contrarian Investment With Outstanding Share Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    I'm with ultima70 here. Everyone's in agreement that if the price of oil stays low for a long period of time, the company is toast. The disagreement is over how long the price will stay low, and how long the company can hold out. If it can survive until the cycle turns, it will be profitable, even if not as profitable as seemed likely a year ago.

    The first variable, the price of oil, is wholly out of their control, but the more cash they keep, the longer than can survive. Using up that cash, even for actions that might be highly lucrative under most circumstances, would be crazy irresponsible when it's not hard to come up with a scenario (even if it's not my base scenario, I just bought some shares yesterday with my play money) in which shareholders get wiped out.

    I imagine that GE, who is clearly running this company for his personal benefit and owns a giant chunk of shares, is not going to increase the risks of that chunk going to zero.
    Aug 4, 2015. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW: Announces Full Settlement Of The Affiliate Loan And Suspension Of The Dividend [View article]
    Thanks for your thoughts (and for the article), Fun.
    Jul 30, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig UDW: Announces Full Settlement Of The Affiliate Loan And Suspension Of The Dividend [View article]
    What do you think the odds are of Dryships at some point having to sell a whole lot of ORIG shares in a hurry to keep itself afloat?
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: Some Of The Market 'Noise' Is Removed - Earnings Take Center Stage [View article]
    Great article, FG, thanks for sharing.
    Jul 18, 2015. 07:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note On Greece [View article]
    How would resignation work with all the euro-denominated debt that peripheral governments, businesses, and consumers have?

    The creditor countries and the IMF & ECB would have to let that debt be revalued in drachmas or pesos or whatever. Is that politically or even legally possible?
    Jun 27, 2015. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Happen After A 'Speech Of Hope'? [View article]
    Well, if they leave the euro, and the drachma ends up worth about 50 euro cents as many suggest, then once they rebuild a banking system (since that would collapse with the euro) wages/costs would be quite competitive in many areas, especially if they stay within the common market.

    Greece before the euro was a poor country but people had jobs and they weren't desperate -- they were better off than now by far.
    Jun 10, 2015. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Cunning Plan To Revive Growth [View article]
    This plan might be good for hard commodities, no?
    May 28, 2015. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Destiny Media's Problem Child [View article]
    Thanks, K. I've decided to cut my losses. Fortunately it was a tiny position for me, play money, but I wish I'd listened to you a year ago.
    Apr 15, 2015. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
234 Comments
251 Likes