expatsp

This Is Just the Beginning

Many of Schiff's criticisms of the U.S. are correct, but the fact is, the rest of the world is often worse. Even with the stimulus, debt/gdp ratio in the U.S. will be far lower than that in Japan or pretty much any European country.

As for the emerging markets, well, I live in Brazil, and for all the complaints about corruption in the U.S., it doesn't hold a candle to what's happening here. Plus Brazil has a birthrate below the replacement level and a long-term Social Security that makes U.S. fiscal problems seem like peanuts. Russia has similar problems. China and India are dependent on exporting to the U.S.

So if you want to flee the dollar, where will you go? What will support commodity prices if all the world economies are in recession?

I don't have any answers--but I do believe that much of the negativity surrounding the U.S. is not because things are much worse there, but because they garner more attention and so are better known.

Procter & Gamble: Dividend Stock Analysis

A cogent, common sense analysis. Thanks!

After Securitization: Who Owns America Now?

Great article as always, but isn't there a bit of a contradiction when you talk about collateral? If collateral on all the U.S.'s external debt is essentially the promises of citizens who can't pay back what they borrowed privately, then doesn't the U.S. have the option of screwing foreign investors, even if they start "coming after their collateral"?

Spotting the Bottom: Is This the New Bull?

I agree with Swampfox. Mr Hui's comments and strategies are very well thought out and I hope he continues to share them with us.

Brazil: Better than a Bubble

For what it's worth, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega has said the currency is between 20% and 50% overvalued, its Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles has said the Brazilian markets are suffering from "irrational exuberance," and the chief economist of the country's state-owned development bank has said that Brazil is in the "front lines of an international bubble."

They may be right, they may be wrong, but when the locals are saying sell, and foreigners are saying buy, well, you decide.

Then again, perhaps it's an impressive display of sanity, especially compared to the U.S., where our top policymakers continue to insist that they cannot identify bubbles.

Overall, I'd agree with manya05. Brazil is probably a good medium to long-term story, but right now it's very expensive.

Why I'm Still Buying Johnson & Johnson at These Levels

I agree with the above praise for this poster, whose analyses are always sober and reasonable -- different from so many shills on SA.

Thank you, Dividends4Life!

Armageddon Part Two: Securitization Is Too Big to Fail

Great article. And it's wonderful for once to see someone on SA responding thoughtfully to criticism.

A Thought Experiment for Bears and Bulls

Another thoughtful, balanced article. Thanks Cam!

Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?

to echo the above... good article, thanks

Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?

to echo the above... good article, thanks

Alcoa's Bloodbath: Weak Demand, Tight Margins

Clear, informative article -- thanks! One question, Julian: even if Alcoa's management in the past has been poor, do you think Klaus Kleinfeld deserves the benefit of the doubt? I haven't followed it closely, but I'm under the impression he did a great job at Siemens before a bribery scandal among his underlings forced him to leave.

Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros

To IAM Moraes... From your name (and your passion on the subject) I assume that you are Brazilian and can read Portuguese, so here are a few links for you:

A link from the Ministry of Planning of the Federal Government of Brazil, in which Lula (on August 15) complains that half of Petrobras belongs to Americans: clippingmp.planejament...

A link from Brazil's leading newspaper, Estado de Sao Paulo, in which on August 12 Lula says "the oil is ours": www.estadao.com.br/eco...

The exact quote here is "O petróleo não é do presidente da República ou da Petrobras, ele é do povo brasileiro"

You're right that Lula has shown himself to be a market-friendly, sensible leader, and probably that will continue into the next administration. But there are risks here that the original post did not mention, is all. Risks aren't surefire disasters... they're risks.

Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros

Are you aware that the Brazilian government is proposing a new, entirely state-owned company to mange the exploration of these new discoveries? Details are still unclear, but they are potentially pulling the rug out from Petrobras. The reasons are explicitly nationalistic: President Lula has said that the problem with Petrobras is that so much of its profits go to American investors, while "the oil is ours."

Just a potential problem, so far, and the government says that all previous contracts (including with Petrobras) will be respected, but... Petrobras is not Exxon. There are risks to doing the vast majority of your business in a single country with a history of nationalism in relation to petroleum.