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dnpvd51

dnpvd51
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  • The Bond Markets Vs. Peter Schiff [View article]
    Bond buyers take negative interest rates because they have no choice. The only alternative is keeping money in a savings a account at an obviously negative interest rate.

    The low bond yields do not logically say anything regards inflation.
    Aug 14 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Investors Should Continue Avoiding Whole Foods Market [View article]
    As soon as there is actual competition for Whole Foods, let me know.

    I will invest in it.

    As of today, at least in the Chicago area, Whole Foods has no real competition.
    Aug 13 09:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A Secular Move In Natural Gas Producers [View article]
    The cash price for Marcellus NG has been extremely low. The price actually averaged $.60 last monday for one location.

    The Marcellus NG producers are still increasing production into a losing price. This should raise a red flag regarding their balance sheets.
    Aug 13 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Far Oversold, Expect A Rebound Soon... What's A Good Play? [View article]
    I am not quite sure where you are getting the -.89 to Nymex number. Maybe this is their average number.

    But much of the Natural gas coming out of the Marcellus is selling for $2 and the cash price was as low as $1.5 recently.

    So why are these NG companies increasing production into this price? THis is a losing price.

    For very obvious reasons, when a commodity producer has a losing price the producer cuts production.

    If the NG producers made the obvious financial decision to cut production, it would be harder for them to keep raising other people's money. Perhaps this is why there are no production cuts.
    Aug 11 12:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Far Oversold, Expect A Rebound Soon... What's A Good Play? [View article]
    Let's start with BP. Certainly not a weak hand.

    http://bit.ly/1mycSGk

    BP Calls it Quits in the Utica Shale – Total Write-off

    And why is COG is still increasing production into $2 NG. This implies a seriously cash starved company willing to sell their assets well below cost when the price is almost certainly going to be higher in two years.
    Aug 9 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Far Oversold, Expect A Rebound Soon... What's A Good Play? [View article]
    "EUR and well cost have moved in opposite directions, with many upwardly revised EUR numbers and substantially decreased well costs. This leads to what is really an increase in economically viable acreage. IRR numbers are positive for Marcellus producers drilling "dry" gas wells at current pricing."

    This is in contradiction to the fact that these NG companies are spending more than they are earning and taking on more debt.
    Aug 9 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    If you believe that the FED is independent, you are in outer space.

    The FED is owned by the banks making the FED clearly beholden to the banks. Further, the chairman is appointed by the President adding further ties.
    Aug 9 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen: A Special Situation Buy [View article]
    Isn't that the flip side of the same thing.

    The price should not rise that much based on this tax issue and suggests to me anyway an overpriced market in general.
    Aug 9 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Far Oversold, Expect A Rebound Soon... What's A Good Play? [View article]
    I have a problem with the contention that $5 NG is viable.

    There must be some relation between the cost of NG production and the cost of oil production. The usual ratio has been ten to one. This makes $5 NG equivalent to $50 oil

    We know that $50 shale oil is not viable. In fact it arguable whether $80 shale oil is viable and many companies are having trouble with $100 oil.
    Aug 9 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen: A Special Situation Buy [View article]
    I have owned this stock for a long time.

    I think the large drop because of this tax decision says something about how overpriced the market is in general.

    The decision to stay in the United States changes nothing fundamental regarding the company yet it dropped 14%.

    I think this is a harbinger for future significant volatility in the markets in general.
    Aug 9 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Far Oversold, Expect A Rebound Soon... What's A Good Play? [View article]
    Steve,

    I enjoy your comments and I agree with your investment thesis. I have been holding shorter term NG futures hoping to take advantage of the backwardation. This works well when the market is in rally mode, not so well when NG is tanking.

    Craig,

    I don't believe that COG is profitable at anything like these NG prices, and these guys keep getting trotted out as the best. I have read their financials and such. There is just too many unknowns in their financials to show whether the company is profitable or not. It is not even clear how many wells they operate within a hundred wells. Perhaps if one really researched their wells by going through PA production one could make a determination, but I don't have the time and it is not worth it.

    This stock is clearly way overpriced even granting their financial statements. This next quarter they should be losing money because NG has fallen more than their published profit margin and yet the share price is still sky high. Shorting this stock is just too risky with so many irrational investors out there and the FED making borrowing so easy.
    Aug 8 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Why It Will Keep Declining [View article]
    The summer is almost in the rear view mirror. These NG future traders trade on forecasts and the cool weather has already been priced in.

    Why have cash prices tightened recently? This is the important question.

    Did the NG producers actually cut production since obviously they were losing tons of money at such low prices?

    Or did we find a great deal of demand at the low prices?
    Aug 6 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    I don't know how you figure that $3.20 copper is cheap.

    In the 1990s, copper rarely was over a dollar.
    Aug 6 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell These PIMCO Closed-End Funds? [View article]
    I guess we are seeing that maybe it is a good idea to avoid these CEFs with high premiums.
    Aug 5 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Wasn't the dollar backed by gold then?
    Aug 4 11:09 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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