Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Delojozafado's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Time For Nat Gas Investors To Think About Winter [View article]
    I have some options positions in NGH15 the March contract. Some others are calling the bottom since this most recent front month contract expired, and the NGH15 has spiked to +$4.20, and settled back a bit. Time to think about winter is another calling of the bottom?

    Some interesting remarks on MWE by oisum. We have the near completions of a very large capex project at South Point OH. We have the Bo/V3r as Speaker of the house from OH. We have the earnings on that Capex starting to become accretive.

    Dominion is likely in pretty good financial shape just calling their DRU debt issuance.
    They have received most of the final approvals for their Cove PT MD import LNG plant to follow the Sabine Pass and Freeport projects into retrofits to LNG Exports. We only need look at what is left of the Cook Inlet Gas resources to see where this is all going in the medium and eventual Long Term.

    Greed is Best in the 21st Century and so as the passenger pigeon had to go in the 20th century and the American Bison had to go in the 19th century, this will be the century where we will export so much of our gas so as to wake up in another 25 years and ask ourselves, WE knew what happened in the Cook Inlet basin reserves why did we not see this coming? Mean time ATGFF/ALA.TO is planning to get that Kenai LNG EXPORT plant retrofitted to an import facility to import Canadian Gas from Kittimatt or Prince Rupert, when the last of the commercially viable gas now dedicated 100% to the Greater Anchorage/Wasilla region runs out.

    What is even better is that these LNG exports will not have even 1/10th the participation as US airlines that employ US Tax payers in these international trade routes enjoy. Instead they are going to be the no US jobs nightmare of the US Cruise industry all over again.

    Foreign prices of late for spot LNG cargoes for delivery to northern Europe and Asia have recently dropped from the 52 week highs of $16 to $18/MM~BTU to $11. Oh what a disaster for US LNG Exporters ? NOT! Not against $4/MM~BTU North American Gas supplies even with liquefaction and transport costs.

    So Cove Point is pretty close to those Marcellus and Utica Shale gas basins according to our memories in Monopoly when we took a ride on the B&O Railroad. Hmmmm...

    If a frog had a glass derrière.....South Point and Cove Point are just not likely to grow farther apart on the geography, there is little "IF" in that.
    Oct 1 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Large Stocks Are Widely Mispriced [View article]
    Interesting and insightful.... well that is something....

    There are no actual stocks cited while APPL is given more for illustrative purposes.

    A Larger Cap company issues a subsequent share offering which knocks down the price on dilution concerns. But if that CAPEX raise is to expand productions that over the next 12 to 24 months will become accretive there may be value in that stock. If it is by some Small cap just raising more cash to stay in business and pay those costs then that is likely a real dilution and the stocks generally keep heading lower as the Managements milk them to the end for generous compensations and incentivizations.

    Generally though those offerings in LC stocks have provisions for the under writers to subscribe to a larger than original Capex target and then they often do at some announced price. When/if then the stock price falls to or below that price as determined to be sound by the Underwriters by way of their own forensic accountings where the underwriters have sunk in some of their own money, then some would assume that there at that price or below it is some candid price discovery?
    Oct 1 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Caesars Is The Short Of The Year [View article]
    The best laid plans of mice and men gang 'aft agley...

    So now the State of NJ AT GEN is interpreting a recent US court ruling as allowing NJ to institute SPORTS BETTING with some restrictions. So CZR's got a dead cat bounce on that news on 9/11. Even if a US court should rule that US sports betting is illegal in NJ so is marijuana in Washington St and Colorado. NJ can likely pursue the same kind of nullification process as the States that have decriminalized marijuana, in instituting sports gambling anyway.

    DEad cat bounce or not for CZR's on sports gambling becoming a likely outcome for NJ casinos we are still seeing the doper states losing revenue to the grow their own backyard, garage and basement grows using the seeds flooding in from Afghanistan. There will still be plenty of revenues lost in sports gambling to Vinnie and Luigi who do not report winnings for tax purposes.
    Sep 12 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Still Like SeaDrill After The Earnings Miss [View article]
    Why add your pictures onto the internet and make your personal situation even more vulnerable to death, taxes, and being hacked? It's been what 15 years or so now since "they" stopped asking for your SS number to put on your driver's license?
    Sep 12 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Still Like SeaDrill After The Earnings Miss [View article]
    Articles like this one and other ratings firms putting the stock on watch for further downgrades. WTI ended the day at near $92.85. That is not $107.85.
    Gold is sliding below $1250 again. The currency wars are heating up again and the Situation in Scotland and as to the Scottish offshore oil reserves is spooking "them" out of sterling. the recent Dragi put with announced new rounds of actual Q/E to supplement LTRO stimulus is weakening the Euro as well on the assertion of sharply lower interest rates in the ECC/EU majors like Germany and France. This has pushed up the .DXY sharply in the last several weeks. A stronger US Dollar forces down commodities prices in US dollar terms. Generally overseas energy prices Brent and the metrics of per MM~BTU prices for LNG are still quite a bit higher than in the US. That means globally weakening currencies economies begin to see demand destruction as energy costs them more and US consumers with dollars less. But these are generally manipulated aberrations which can persist only so long as there is global faith in fiat currencies. With the US adopting as a cornerstone to it's foreign policies the Exports of North American sourced fossil fuels to Europe in order to attempt punishing Putin by creating alternative energy supplies to Western Europe the US will encourage some of the huge global float of US dollars to be dumped in the US to buy these crudes, refined product, Petrochems, LPGs and LNGs. So enjoy lower energy prices that may be going lower in the ST but be wary as to what is going to happen when inflationary forces as these currency dumps into US markets add to already simmering inflationary pressures, in the medium term. Higher rates in response to inflationary pressures often start with the depressing of commodities but then that inflation eventually gains on those higher rates not continuing higher by enough to keep pace with anything of intrinsic value. So that sweet spot at the beginning of the Great Inflation II is where the commodities will tend to come back to life as stores of wealth.
    SDRL even as a higher yielding stock is still subject to a deterioration in the US Bond market where bond yields rise and tend to attract money out of stocks with fluctuating valuations into what the market sees as value ina YTMaturity it would like to w=own that has risen by some substantial metric. So The stock of SDRL is also subject to interest rate and anticipation of inflation fears.
    Sep 12 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Still Like SeaDrill After The Earnings Miss [View article]
    ~$26 at the bottom of the May-early Oct 2011 20% market correction. It is very likely a quasi-falling knife but there is plenty of LT upside from a 6% yield at $28. Or a 4.75% yield at $38. Maybe ~$26 is a good support level to avg down against. This has been a great accumulation channel trading stock but it is just ridiculous for yield seeking investors to speculate in anything more than a nibble in this stock. SDRL is hardly a set it and forget it T, VZ or GGT. You will not find the managers of SCHD having much interest in this one. Strong leverage to the commodities currency Noaky. When the currency wars and the collision of the US fiscal and monetary policies again end badly the hard commodities currency exposure might bias this stock's relative value higher to a failing US $.
    Sep 12 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Climbs Back Up To $4 - Will It Remain There? [View article]
    LNG exports are scheduled to begin in Feb '15. Maybe not a significant bias physically but when it starts it may put a little psychology bias to the Nat Gas market. Expediting the LNG export industry with no jobs on the tank ships for US taxpayers, that will be the US Cruise Line industry US jobs fiasco all over again, is evolving into a priority US Foreign Policy goal. I have recently added to GASS as they are near done with the CAPEX raises and just took delivery of the first of 2 new partially refrigerated LPG carriers. They may take delivery on as many as 17 more of these "ECO Class" LPG carriers. The US already exports more than 20% of our LPG (Propane) productions also called Natural Gas liquids. There may be developing trends in the demand side that will support the +$5/MM~BTU. Seasonally a stepped group of tranches from here into UGAZ in say increments of 30, 40 and 80 shares if it keeps falling towards $11 seems like a decent seasonal trend concept for a LITTLE SPECULATION. As per all the mentions of Marcellus the huge investments by MWE of CAPEX into the facilities in South Point OH are becoming accretive. The share price of MWE sorta soaring of late off the recent ex date intra-day low, on the ACCOMPLISHING of the upgrades of the mid-stream infrastructures servicing the Marcellus and Utica shales. Meanwhile back down there near Sabine Pass, LA GDP continues to prosper drilling the Tuscaloosa shales. The GDPAN briefly re-visiting sub $47 but right backup to over par in no time. Morgan Stanley this past week announced plans to fill globally weakened markets container ships with 40 ft container sized steel framed tanks to export CNG. With container vessel rates so weak this may be an effective strategy to enhance exports. Sort of like WWII Liberty Ships transporting 55 gal drums of gasoline to the war effort.
    Sep 4 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Waiting Patiently For This Blue Chip REIT To Go On Sale [View article]
    I have a 22% gain in these shares off 12/13. So in not even a year this REIT has gotten pretty over valued on some technical basis'.

    This is a very long article did I miss the price target where we are supposed to be looking to add to this.

    This is by your outline a special situation REIT. Recently the Shareholders ousted the BOD at Commonwealth , now reorganized for the shareholders benefit into EQC.

    It seems like there should be developing some other opportunities in some mis-managed REITs that may see activists targeting them.

    Just a little skeptical of these valuations in NNN but a pullback significant enough would make it an add. Hard to see where/how that comes when the ZIRP EVERLASTING reign of terror seems likely to continue beyond 2015. The 10 yr German Bund is currently at .88%. The bubble bursts eventually but further buying into it seems not too shrewd whilst it continuing, leaves us not too anxious sitting on our existing position.
    Aug 28 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Net Lease REITs To Avoid [View article]
    "REITs mentioned:" A list that does not contain (NYSE:EQC) but the author does mention it in the article. Why is it mentioned and then neither given a sanctioning to be bought or a pan to be ditched?
    Aug 13 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quality Pays Dividends With This ETF [View article]
    We are seeking to create "The Dogs of the SCHD" portfolio by identifying the top 10 to 15 yielders of the near 101 holdings. Is there any resource that lists the allocations by dividend yield rather than weighting?
    Mar 29 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 New Preferred Stocks Provide 6.2% With Increased Principal Protection [View article]
    Ended here in my search for the pre-NYSE listing likely NASDAQ listing of the Allstate new IPO ALL-E ~6.75% non-cumulative with the expected to be tax advantaged distributions, which is not listed as yet on the NYSE as ALL-E.
    Feb 25 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Preferred Bond Replacement Strategy For Intelligent REIT Investors [View article]
    REIT preferreds are generally NOT tax advantaged. HPCCP WAS REIT preferred stated as being a REIT preferred but despite that was called @ par when it was call protected to 12/'21 and so was sporting a +$28 handle. It was called as if it were a "TRUST Preferred", the sponsor claiming that the early call was justified as with Trust Preferreds, under the far back pages provisions in the prospectus as to something like Dodd-Frank voiding the call protection. I am sticking as of late with the tax advantaged issuances mostly of the banks and insurers that I was aggressive buyer of into the 1740 S&P correction. I had been buying such as CYN-C 1/24 @ 20.36,AF-C 1/24 @22.35, C-C 1/27 $21.44, WFC-O 1/29 21.45, STI-E 2/3 21.77, FRC-D 2/3 @20.39, BK-C 2/3 @21.13, ZB-H 2/4 $20.63, USB-H 2/4 19.98, & STT-C 2/5 @ 21.88. So in market declines preferreds are more biased in their price performances to the prices of their sponsor's common stock PPS and NOT to the generally consistently lower interest rates that correspond to significant stock retrenchments. These types are just as good for tax sheltered as well as unsheltered as to their market price metrics and yields. Most of them have coupons so low it is unlikely they will ever be called. So by buying at steep discounts to par you are WELL protected from calls; even Japanese type surprise attacks as were seen against the REIT preferreds HPCCP which caught the WHOLE market by surprise. If you draw a 4% income against a portfolio so constructed you can create an annuity correlated portfolio where the excess of what you take as distributions can be invested in such as ILTB, NTF at many larger firms. As the excess to distributions accumulate you can use that to buy more shares at lower prices if rates rise or branch out to the sister issuances of the same ilk as AEH, AXS-D, BBT-E, COF-P, GGN--B (A rated), GS-I, ISG,JPM-D, PNC-Q, PRE-F, PUK-A, RNR-E, & SCE-G. As these are tax advantaged if the tax laws do not appreciably change in the forward years on qualified dividends you can do transfers in kind into your taxable margin accounts from tax sheltered accounts to meet your MRDS later in life. Generally these are best purchased in a cumulative price to yield scenario of =/+7% but looking to acquire the most steeply discounted to par as against their lower coupons. Your "7% portfolio" could be used as an ultra LT Bullet as a supplement to your 5 to 7 year bond ladder. The 7% as against the current and likely to continue yield in ILTB demonstrating how you can get quality generally well above junk rated income securities with perpetual (annuity like) ~7% yield that is in some manner interest rate protected from periodic excess income reinvestment at lower (?) prices and greater yields. Preferreds are interesting breeds of cats...rates can decline and their prices generally go down if the lower rates are coincident with lower stock prices even as their effective yields are rising opposite of the bond performances. Most annnuities are based against the longest term rates which still remain subdued. even in indexed annuities the caps are still generally below if not well below 4..25%. There is no 15% commission to overcome in constructing such an alternative portfolio where you just do not expect to see these preferreds ever called.
    Feb 25 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Strong Balance Sheet, Reasonably Valued, And Rapid Dividend Growth [View article]
    The sliding Jersey (Fridge oops)Barriers business is looking for a buyer. VMC perhaps might be interested. MLM... After they Digest TXI?
    Feb 8 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Strong Balance Sheet, Reasonably Valued, And Rapid Dividend Growth [View article]
    Two mutual fund companies recently filing SC 13/GA forms. Invesco and Blackrock a couple of well heeled mutual fund operators are owning +5% each positions of the share float. So that has begotten the Whale followers jumping in too. That along with a huge end of week rebound rally in the over all markets sent the stock to very near $93. So the argument that his has any decent dividend potential is fading. T is an example of a strong dividend theme or one of LNN's cousins AGGZF also with a very strong Ags theme bounce chart.

    For at least the last 2 years this stock has clearly had the most potential as an accumulation strategy Channel trader or as a very clear target for a take out bid over $100/share. None of the other reindeer let poor Rudolf play in any Reindeer games when the Company last reported a ~ 2 cent earnings BEAT. LNN knocked back to an intraday $71 handle off an $88 a few weeks earlier. Now all the Reindeer love him as they shout out with glee BlackRock and Invesco "must know something" and others grumble "Shocked ! Just shocked to find out there are manipulations of stock prices on such level playing fields as major US stock exchanges."

    DE, AGCO, VMI, and so many others such obvious suitors. I did not know anything and sold 17% of my shares this past week at $84.24, four fewer shares than I bought last Oct 10th @ $75.17.
    Feb 8 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Want A Monthly Dividend? Here's How To Get One With Utilities [View article]
    Coal continues strong on the global power production platforms. HE gets their coal from Indonesia because we have never embarked on a jobs stimulation or infrastructure build out in our economy. 1/2 of the 8 Billion stimulus went to tax cuts for the wealthy. The nascent LNG export industry in the US is the same jobs disaster for the US as the Cruise Line industry. There is a reason that not even 5% of these little value added LNG cargoes are to be reserved for US registered Tankships with US citizen jobs contributing to the US revenue streams. If you are so sure that Nat gas will stay cheap why not short the NGG15 ? It did not take porterhouse and Strip loin steak long to go to $15/LB after the US' 2012 grain crop failed. You need to consider the ratio of vaporized gas to it's liquid state. The concentrations are very high. These cargos are going to seriously affect gas prices in the US. How much of the Cook Inlet Gas Basin Reserves are left after plus 25 years of LNG exports to Japan. Well enough to last another 8 to 12 years for the consumers of the greater Anchorage/Wasilla regions that have more than tripled their populations since that gas started being exported. Lately some think tank without a clue was explaining that by 2015 the US would have to repeal the requirements for export licensures on US sourced crudes. Ostensibly we will be out of capacity for petrochemical and refinery plants against growing productions of crude from shale and off shore. So instead of building new plants to continue building US jobs in value added industry we are to just export that crude oil to some near third world destination for refining. The global demand for our petrochemicals and refined products are what supports WTI to the Global pricing of Brent. Spot priced LNG cargos for delivery in Korea and Japan are currently quite favorable for US exporters who already export 1/2 million BBLs a day of LPG. On Nov 15 '13 Reuters reports that:

    "Asian LNG spot prices surpassed long-term, oil linked prices this week as (against higher demand in China & Japan) drove LNG demand. Prices rose to around $18.30/MM~BTU for January delivery, compared to ! $17.75 ! last week. Long Term LNG supplies to Asia tend to be priced @$14.50 "

    So with Japan moth balling their entire Nuke Fleet, Germany announcing the same, and China converting to LNG as much as practicable against their nation's #1 concern of environmental degradation of the air they breathe, & with Japan and Korea both having very cold winters, we are to expect that what is present in the global crude markets in terms of price setting is not going to manifest in the global LNG markets? US gas prices will remain "RELATIVELY " stable because demand from both the US AND Canadian LNG sourcing EXPORT projects will be slow to advantage the 1:3 price differential between US gas now peaking from Oct's $3.50 -$3.60 to the $4.40s & global pricings. The geopolitical tensions as manifesting from Gaz Prom and the Russian's attempting to "Squeeze" the Ukraine and the rest of Europe they supply gas to will not affect the global LNG market much either.

    So called clean coal will be back in the US for the same reasons we do not have physical jobs economic stimulations policies in place as mandated by legislation in these growing capacity industries. The US closed 5 Nukes in 2013 2 went down for their costs to upgrade to safe conditions on investing the adequate planned and preventative maintenances. The Other 3 were de-commissioned as to the actual cost of their KWH being more than the competing LNG. But the Federal plan for the disposal of millions of tons of nuclear waste collapsed near 5years ago. That is these companies are not going to re-start these nukes for the unknown legacy costs to them of having to eventually dispose of this waste.

    Once US and Canadian LNG exports commence there should be little effect seen in the futures contracts and the prices the gas producers hedge at. Once they commence on SCALE a year later there is little chance that global spot prices triple our domestic prices could have much effect on our Nat gas prices here in the US either. There is not much supply being fed down here from Canada at all. So their LNG exports cannot really effect our pricing situation much here in the US.

    Does anyone know who bought SEMCO the Anchorage/Wasilla previously privately held Gas utility? Just maybe they have some plans to IMPORT LNG to the US to fill that medium term loss of supply from the Cook Inlet Gas Basin depletions? Sounds like a growth company with a growth plan.
    Dec 16 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment