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Delojozafado

Delojozafado
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  • Quality Pays Dividends With This ETF [View article]
    We are seeking to create "The Dogs of the SCHD" portfolio by identifying the top 10 to 15 yielders of the near 101 holdings. Is there any resource that lists the allocations by dividend yield rather than weighting?
    Mar 29 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 New Preferred Stocks Provide 6.2% With Increased Principal Protection [View article]
    Ended here in my search for the pre-NYSE listing likely NASDAQ listing of the Allstate new IPO ALL-E ~6.75% non-cumulative with the expected to be tax advantaged distributions, which is not listed as yet on the NYSE as ALL-E.
    Feb 25 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Preferred Bond Replacement Strategy For Intelligent REIT Investors [View article]
    REIT preferreds are generally NOT tax advantaged. HPCCP WAS REIT preferred stated as being a REIT preferred but despite that was called @ par when it was call protected to 12/'21 and so was sporting a +$28 handle. It was called as if it were a "TRUST Preferred", the sponsor claiming that the early call was justified as with Trust Preferreds, under the far back pages provisions in the prospectus as to something like Dodd-Frank voiding the call protection. I am sticking as of late with the tax advantaged issuances mostly of the banks and insurers that I was aggressive buyer of into the 1740 S&P correction. I had been buying such as CYN-C 1/24 @ 20.36,AF-C 1/24 @22.35, C-C 1/27 $21.44, WFC-O 1/29 21.45, STI-E 2/3 21.77, FRC-D 2/3 @20.39, BK-C 2/3 @21.13, ZB-H 2/4 $20.63, USB-H 2/4 19.98, & STT-C 2/5 @ 21.88. So in market declines preferreds are more biased in their price performances to the prices of their sponsor's common stock PPS and NOT to the generally consistently lower interest rates that correspond to significant stock retrenchments. These types are just as good for tax sheltered as well as unsheltered as to their market price metrics and yields. Most of them have coupons so low it is unlikely they will ever be called. So by buying at steep discounts to par you are WELL protected from calls; even Japanese type surprise attacks as were seen against the REIT preferreds HPCCP which caught the WHOLE market by surprise. If you draw a 4% income against a portfolio so constructed you can create an annuity correlated portfolio where the excess of what you take as distributions can be invested in such as ILTB, NTF at many larger firms. As the excess to distributions accumulate you can use that to buy more shares at lower prices if rates rise or branch out to the sister issuances of the same ilk as AEH, AXS-D, BBT-E, COF-P, GGN--B (A rated), GS-I, ISG,JPM-D, PNC-Q, PRE-F, PUK-A, RNR-E, & SCE-G. As these are tax advantaged if the tax laws do not appreciably change in the forward years on qualified dividends you can do transfers in kind into your taxable margin accounts from tax sheltered accounts to meet your MRDS later in life. Generally these are best purchased in a cumulative price to yield scenario of =/+7% but looking to acquire the most steeply discounted to par as against their lower coupons. Your "7% portfolio" could be used as an ultra LT Bullet as a supplement to your 5 to 7 year bond ladder. The 7% as against the current and likely to continue yield in ILTB demonstrating how you can get quality generally well above junk rated income securities with perpetual (annuity like) ~7% yield that is in some manner interest rate protected from periodic excess income reinvestment at lower (?) prices and greater yields. Preferreds are interesting breeds of cats...rates can decline and their prices generally go down if the lower rates are coincident with lower stock prices even as their effective yields are rising opposite of the bond performances. Most annnuities are based against the longest term rates which still remain subdued. even in indexed annuities the caps are still generally below if not well below 4..25%. There is no 15% commission to overcome in constructing such an alternative portfolio where you just do not expect to see these preferreds ever called.
    Feb 25 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Strong Balance Sheet, Reasonably Valued, And Rapid Dividend Growth [View article]
    The sliding Jersey (Fridge oops)Barriers business is looking for a buyer. VMC perhaps might be interested. MLM... After they Digest TXI?
    Feb 8 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Strong Balance Sheet, Reasonably Valued, And Rapid Dividend Growth [View article]
    Two mutual fund companies recently filing SC 13/GA forms. Invesco and Blackrock a couple of well heeled mutual fund operators are owning +5% each positions of the share float. So that has begotten the Whale followers jumping in too. That along with a huge end of week rebound rally in the over all markets sent the stock to very near $93. So the argument that his has any decent dividend potential is fading. T is an example of a strong dividend theme or one of LNN's cousins AGGZF also with a very strong Ags theme bounce chart.

    For at least the last 2 years this stock has clearly had the most potential as an accumulation strategy Channel trader or as a very clear target for a take out bid over $100/share. None of the other reindeer let poor Rudolf play in any Reindeer games when the Company last reported a ~ 2 cent earnings BEAT. LNN knocked back to an intraday $71 handle off an $88 a few weeks earlier. Now all the Reindeer love him as they shout out with glee BlackRock and Invesco "must know something" and others grumble "Shocked ! Just shocked to find out there are manipulations of stock prices on such level playing fields as major US stock exchanges."

    DE, AGCO, VMI, and so many others such obvious suitors. I did not know anything and sold 17% of my shares this past week at $84.24, four fewer shares than I bought last Oct 10th @ $75.17.
    Feb 8 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Want A Monthly Dividend? Here's How To Get One With Utilities [View article]
    Coal continues strong on the global power production platforms. HE gets their coal from Indonesia because we have never embarked on a jobs stimulation or infrastructure build out in our economy. 1/2 of the 8 Billion stimulus went to tax cuts for the wealthy. The nascent LNG export industry in the US is the same jobs disaster for the US as the Cruise Line industry. There is a reason that not even 5% of these little value added LNG cargoes are to be reserved for US registered Tankships with US citizen jobs contributing to the US revenue streams. If you are so sure that Nat gas will stay cheap why not short the NGG15 ? It did not take porterhouse and Strip loin steak long to go to $15/LB after the US' 2012 grain crop failed. You need to consider the ratio of vaporized gas to it's liquid state. The concentrations are very high. These cargos are going to seriously affect gas prices in the US. How much of the Cook Inlet Gas Basin Reserves are left after plus 25 years of LNG exports to Japan. Well enough to last another 8 to 12 years for the consumers of the greater Anchorage/Wasilla regions that have more than tripled their populations since that gas started being exported. Lately some think tank without a clue was explaining that by 2015 the US would have to repeal the requirements for export licensures on US sourced crudes. Ostensibly we will be out of capacity for petrochemical and refinery plants against growing productions of crude from shale and off shore. So instead of building new plants to continue building US jobs in value added industry we are to just export that crude oil to some near third world destination for refining. The global demand for our petrochemicals and refined products are what supports WTI to the Global pricing of Brent. Spot priced LNG cargos for delivery in Korea and Japan are currently quite favorable for US exporters who already export 1/2 million BBLs a day of LPG. On Nov 15 '13 Reuters reports that:

    "Asian LNG spot prices surpassed long-term, oil linked prices this week as (against higher demand in China & Japan) drove LNG demand. Prices rose to around $18.30/MM~BTU for January delivery, compared to ! $17.75 ! last week. Long Term LNG supplies to Asia tend to be priced @$14.50 "

    So with Japan moth balling their entire Nuke Fleet, Germany announcing the same, and China converting to LNG as much as practicable against their nation's #1 concern of environmental degradation of the air they breathe, & with Japan and Korea both having very cold winters, we are to expect that what is present in the global crude markets in terms of price setting is not going to manifest in the global LNG markets? US gas prices will remain "RELATIVELY " stable because demand from both the US AND Canadian LNG sourcing EXPORT projects will be slow to advantage the 1:3 price differential between US gas now peaking from Oct's $3.50 -$3.60 to the $4.40s & global pricings. The geopolitical tensions as manifesting from Gaz Prom and the Russian's attempting to "Squeeze" the Ukraine and the rest of Europe they supply gas to will not affect the global LNG market much either.

    So called clean coal will be back in the US for the same reasons we do not have physical jobs economic stimulations policies in place as mandated by legislation in these growing capacity industries. The US closed 5 Nukes in 2013 2 went down for their costs to upgrade to safe conditions on investing the adequate planned and preventative maintenances. The Other 3 were de-commissioned as to the actual cost of their KWH being more than the competing LNG. But the Federal plan for the disposal of millions of tons of nuclear waste collapsed near 5years ago. That is these companies are not going to re-start these nukes for the unknown legacy costs to them of having to eventually dispose of this waste.

    Once US and Canadian LNG exports commence there should be little effect seen in the futures contracts and the prices the gas producers hedge at. Once they commence on SCALE a year later there is little chance that global spot prices triple our domestic prices could have much effect on our Nat gas prices here in the US either. There is not much supply being fed down here from Canada at all. So their LNG exports cannot really effect our pricing situation much here in the US.

    Does anyone know who bought SEMCO the Anchorage/Wasilla previously privately held Gas utility? Just maybe they have some plans to IMPORT LNG to the US to fill that medium term loss of supply from the Cook Inlet Gas Basin depletions? Sounds like a growth company with a growth plan.
    Dec 16 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Want A Monthly Dividend? Here's How To Get One With Utilities [View article]
    ATGFF & NPIFF both pay monthly distributions and are strong growth stories.
    Dec 14 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Consider National Retail Properties Is Now [View article]
    Well I started a 100 sharer tranche in here in the common @ $30.22 @ a 5.2% yield. While the general anticipation is for higher rates in 2014 there is also the possibility of the MOB making siege at the gates with torches and pitchforks. That is rates could decline especially on ST debt in 2014 if the market has a 20% correction like 2011 produced. So a little 5.2% income that seems sustainable on the metrics of FFO being sustainable is worth taking a flyer on for me. Chalk one up for the heretics at the FED for creating the behavioral economics that create the 1.48% "near" safe yield on the US 5 yr Treasury driving some of my allocations out of safer < 7 yr bonds.
    Dec 11 02:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Irrigating The Emerging Markets With A Modest Valuation [View article]
    Maybe the S/A site provides a little bias to stocks trading but in the case of LNN the strength we are seeing of the last trading days is probably more attributable to the stock getting to an over sold condition just as it got to an over bought condition when it hit an $89 handle just before the last earnings announcement. The ag commodities themed Stock derivatives have been a hot sector since April when it became clear that if North America ended with an average normal amount of rainfall there would be a record grain crop brought in. You can see this on a compare chart using CERGF, AGGZF, AGCO & ADM which were mostly lower or bottoming in April into early May. CWT made a $19.24 mark on May 2nd and is now again banging up against the 52 week high made in the first week of Aug. Good for the stocks not so good for soybean meal and corn prices. SOIL has not participated much ...YET? AGCO bottoming on 4/17. It was a great year for the Bon3r Portfolio.
    Oct 29 05:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lindsay Corp.: Irrigating The Emerging Markets With A Modest Valuation [View article]
    I think LNN is likely a take over target by a AGCO, VMI or even DE for near +! or minus $100/Sh. In the meantime I have channel traded with accumulation this company for 3 years now. It was great to get 18% off with an $89 handle just a few weeks ago but I have added those shares back with $71 to $75 handles and then the new accumulation shares as well.

    As far as the corn crops go that is possibly a Red Herring as the growing of rice, potatoes and especially soy beans will remain moisture intensive for optimum yields. China has an insatiable appetite for soybeans.

    LNN is also a favorite idea of Jim Jubak.

    Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain buy these shares with this great valuation in the low to mid $70s and then sell into that next peaking 15% to 20% of the position. Either it will continue the saw toothing chart or it will get bought out. If you take some off and no offer comes then you can generally buy back again in the next valley.
    Oct 25 05:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $100 Brent Will Not Last Through 2013 [View article]
    Well now it is 8 months later and Brent "almost" as in a Maxwell Smart Skit dropped to below $100. But sure enough WTI continues chasing Brent and Brent is not coming down to WTI levels.

    WE could look at a chart of FSCHX and surmise that there is a strong global demand for US petrochemicals and other chemicals and products with Nat Gas components. The US Dollar index the .DXY continues to be trading on a stronger basis in the 79 to 85 range and that should be further pressure in dollars on BRent but it is instead rising again. As of late heating oil/Road Diesel is back above the $3 mark.

    Now we can offer the excuse that we did not anticipate the world would continue in the joy and proliferations of Genocide and political instability as fostered by US Foreign interventionist policies. So even though the water route pipeline through the Suez canal may not be immediately under threat it is perceived by the global oil market as "probably" under threat as it was closed for several years after the second Arab Israeli war. Morocco,Libya, now Syria all opting for new forms of government. Of course it is the Sunni - Shi'ite genocide that we are now seeing increase. Oil supplier Turkey with civil unrest, the fiascos of the same in Bahrain threatening to spill over the causeway into Saudi Arabia. The political suspicion in the US over Al Gezeras opening up a US broadcast link creating anxiety about QATAR. The Muslim fundamentalism a threat to oil productions in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Piracy off Nigeria in the Gulf of Guinea now more rampant than on Africa's east coast.

    Yea big surprise that there is continued political instability and it is biasing oil higher. Now we have the Black Swan of Lac-Megantic. So Black Swans don't count either because they are Black Swans and we may never see another one even as they occur on a more or less regular basis. Next is the Key stone pipeline to The US Gulf where Canadian Crude will be ever more easily exported to China and thence to other regions ion Asia through a wider Panama canal and then an even wider and deeper canal through Nicaragua as now proposed and to be financed by the Chinese. So Canadian Crude that has traded below $50/BBL in some infrastructure constrained regions will also be seeking global market price metrics. The anticipation of that will probably just be totally ignored in the futures markets?

    I just filled my heating oil tank @ $3.199 It seems we have already seen the bottom for Brent in 2013. Better luck with the Sub $100 call next year. SDRL just coming back to the higher trading range in the low $40 handles after having got recently knocked back to a mid $30s handle.

    WTI near $106 and Brent near $110 and so the differential is closing but it is still WTI closing in on Brent.

    You are obviously not under standing the Chinese psyche of what money is. The Renmimbi basically continuing to appreciate at near 4% annually against the global basket of fiat currencies. Storage costs are a secondary concern to them as they continue to believe who ever has the most secure commodities resources over the next 20 years will be the winner of the global fiat currency/debt wars.

    So far they have not decided to undertake any ungodly EXPENSIVE invasions of other sovereign land locked countries but when they decide it is time for a change in leadership in Harare they are going to be needing a lot of oil to support that. The US will be asserting that a Chinese occupation of Zimbob is unacceptable but by then IRAN will have tested a couple of nukes. Global oil prices will no doubt go down on such even more heightened geo-political tensions.
    Jul 17 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.4% Dividend Payer Apollo Residential Mortgage's Market Leadership Makes It A Buy [View article]
    I bought some preferred at $24.82 on this week's spike to 2.23 in the Ten year. The common looks spooky with that yield and the dilution of near $176MM in subsequent shares... You may for now be not seeing the 13% in the preferred but my tranche with commission is in below par and call protected out to 2017. We should also be aware of this management arrangement as a possible negative. Inland REIT and CWH where managements that are NOT of an in house nature farm the REIT shares they manage for dubiously high "management fees" and bleed the common shareholders of gains they should be or should have enjoyed in the recently strong REIT Asset CLASS. One REIT advised by Inland went from a near $7.20 in NAV to a $6.93 in 2012. THe symbols such as CREEX & RIF have had pretty decent 18 month charts on price per share PLUS their distributions vs that. Commonwealth's plus 60% of shareholders are in court and in arbitrations trying to oust the Family that runs the management company managing the REIT CWH. That family owns other management services contracts with other REITS and if the CWH shareholders prevail against the dirty tricks of the managers sucking the company dry for it's fees and destroying EPS appreciations for the share holders then the other REITs it plays Le Belle Dame sans Merci to will likely follow suit to what CHW is attempting. So I would be cautious as to determining the intentions and getting some DD on this ARM Manager LLC's fee structures as it relates to AMTG. This could be a value trap kind of stock and the market is not providing this kind of yield in this common shares structure with out there being some underlying risk in the company and this huge distribution. It may be a screaming buy to some one who recently bought shares at ~$22.50. That is another $150 million of dilution with the recently issued preferreds as well as this latest $176 million capital raise. So if this is going to growth of the portfolios of loans which may be "assumed" going forward loans "eventually" made at higher rates there is a positive outlook but if it is being in too large and inappropriate amounts getting syphoned off away from CAPEX and to internal management fees and expenses and to sustain larger payout ratios than are sustainable for common share distributions then maybe the price is near right as against a 50% haircut in the divy and where it ends at $15 still yielding 9%. The preferreds as maximally subordinated bonds have a strong enough coupon to protect them from gradually rising rates. If after 2 years the value drops to $24.75 on the preferred impacted by higher rates you could sell and even with commission get 6.85% YT2years. In a scenario such as that you could no doubt at that time find an actual investment grade bond of 5 years or less @4.25% YTM. AMTG has a current market cap of just $630 million so this is a very small company and it looks like the company has dilutions of near 50% of that since floating out the preferred A, 9 months ago.
    May 31 04:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $100 Brent Will Not Last Through 2013 [View article]
    So far YTD WTI is still chasing Brent higher more than Brent is being impacted by WTI.

    In 2012 China took away ~$112 billion in US treasury legacy higher yielding debt. US refined petroleum and Petro chemicals continue in strong demand globally. Some of these currency devaluations vs the perniciousness of US QEs are making the demand for US value added WTI products continue to rise. Some of that $112 Billion went into and continues into China's SPR.

    We are to believe over the next several years the US currency is to strengthen enough to suppress these demand metrics form the hard currency economies?

    The author is now hedging his assertion of "not last(ing) through (the other 2/3rds of) 2013"? Now it is a question as to when Brent will decline in the future?

    In about 2 years the massive global exports from North America of LNG will commence. The North American shale gas fracking technologies will soon be put to work globally so it would seem that Gas and NGLs will be gaining market shares as per fuels globally in general. Cummins(nice chart,Eh?) already in production for many months with their new 12 Ltr Nat gas fuel heavy duty truck engine. It can be adapted to either CNG or LNG. These fueling stations are already being constructed along the TransCanada HWY mostly by RDS/A&"B".

    It's always too good to believe until time takes it's toll. So what is the remaining reserve left to the Cook inlet Gas basin after +25 years of exporting LNG to Japan sourced there? The export terminal is being mothballed now as the gas resource is so severely depleted that the greater Anchoarge/Warsilla region is starting to worry about where they are going to get gas to heat the place in the winter months in just a few short years. Maybe they will have to switch to heating oil or maybe that export terminal will be converted to an import terminal?

    It seems clear that the technologies adapting natural gas to a transportation fuel are going to advance world wide. The pollutions in China could be dramatically reduced using NG fueled trucks, buses and eventually to some other adaptations to autos as well.

    So maybe global demand for oil will ease a bit later in the decade. For now Europe remains in a severe DEPRESSION and Brent still remains over US$100/BBL. RDS/B and BP putting in strong rallies over the last 3 weeks. If there is so much easy play onshore oil we have to wonder how SDRL keeps it going? Drilling in deep and ultra deep water is very expensive. The latest benefits of global warming the increasing drilling activities in the Barents Sea, now mostly ice free year round. If oil prices do fall that activity gets shelved and some wells may be capped as so many Nat Gas wells are also still currently capped supporting the move from <$3 on the 2 yr chart to over $4 now. BG Group and Idemitsu-Kosan already buying North American sourced LNG for which they plan to take deliveries of. So the demand metric for gas is rising and we can expect to see $5.15/MM~BTU before the end of 2013.

    North American Gas rising in price will some how support lower Brent pricing?
    May 5 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Reports A Nightmare Quarter [View article]
    The tapering is coming.."eventually". These are LT securities continuing to go out to market at unsustainably low rates of interest. This company's stock will get a big bump up when this unprecedented buying stampede in stocks driven by the central banks Blitzkrieg of liquidity finally gets the next correction applied. The decline in 2011 from May to the undercut OCT low was a 20% decline.

    When the thirty year breaks towards 2.49% in a stock market swoon it will be time to dump this company's stock. Eventually ZIRP everlasting and the binary access to credit will be rejected at the ballot box. Once that occurs anyone holding excessive exposures to LT debt will get eaten alive.

    The Music in MBS.s stops again and we have the same result as in 2008-09.
    May 4 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Sprott's Gold Analysis Deconstructed: What The Gold Bulls Still Don't Get [View article]
    Where has Mr J been since 1979?
    May 4 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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