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The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 3

Might you consider including Bird Construction BIRDF/BDT.UN as part of the Canadian Energy Infrastructure class?

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 2

So now I have taken 3/4 s of my BCF off the table for a nice gain and stop lossed the rest @ $6.84. I have since added another partial in GLHIF to a round 3K position and with today's strong Loonie move I am up over $500 in my position. The effective dividend also rose to 6.95% against my total cost basis on the bird going to .816. ENY which I continued to average down in to below $8 has exploded higher. I have a target for lightening in the mid $11 range. BSR has also rallied and I would love to get some off the table above $25. The ADM-PRA has really kicked butt as well and I am less than a buck away from taking off 20% of the position. At least I am above water now in my AES-PRC. I may have to find a less ambitious target below $38 to unload 50% of that. I am just even in my REP-PRA but I see it swooned in the after hours trading. Ken Fischer the perennial BULL has endorsed the shares of REP as part of his"Madonna" theme. He is also enthusiastic over DOW & AA. Madonna is easily the best show for the money on earth. 2 hrs and 20 minutes with a 10 minute break and a couple five minute costume changes. Just Awesome!! The female version of Dorian Grey. Sort of like an affordable Beamer. My Chem Trade shares had a very strong move higher today as well . At this price it is ripe for a take out. Teck Cominico now has a bad case of indigestion from the Fording Coal take out. With the Suncor deal and the Dow/Rohm Hass deal a small cao like ChemTrade would just round out a major. GACHF and HLSRF both had strong moves up today as well on a percentage basis. Wow my CHK-PRD is smokin' , now with Nat gas finding a resistance at $4 and trading up and down on the $4.50 handle. If only I had pulled the trigger at $53.xx on another 100 shares of CHK-PRD. Peaking A/C is nearly upon us. And so in that vein the EDE was smokin' again today, The 9% dividend may now be safe if the shares can top up over $18. Half of the discount due to the share dilution of their recent subsequent share public offering is now nearly erased. The A/C season is going to be a good one for them this year with all of their peaking Nat Gas turbine units going on for long runs. I truly believe that the best watermelons come from Arkansas. That means a lot of A/C while those melons are growin'. My shares in BP are really smokin' too. Too bad I did not jump the bones at the same time of some RDS/B. With the move higher today it's +7% yield is slipping away. Hey even Bruce not the Almighty had a big day with BAM adding on +1%. Did you see that intra-day swing in AGQ the day the Fed adjourned and made their announcement of the "Q" plan to destroy the US PE$O? A $33.12 low to a $44.xx handle? Yikes!


On Mar 04 04:03 AM Cliff Wachtel wrote:

> Thanks for the detailed comments. Great minds work alike. Where is
> your blog? Definetely worth checking further. thanks again, will
> try to pursue your suggestions, which at first glance seem very solid.
> thanks again, Cliff

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 3

Fidelity has the best one! 5 star rated by Morningstar. Unfortunately it is usually not available except by having an account or buying it at Fidelity. The symbol is (FICDX). Of course if you go there you may as well partake of an equally excellent fund (FLATX). Better than EWZ as you get plenty of exposure to Mexico, Oil and metals silver etc, Chile with lots of Copper and other resources including fertilizer, and some aggs in Argentina. The Real at least has as good a chance as the Loonie to out last the US PE$O. Of course the trouble these days with mutuals you can't take off the table for 30-180 days nor can you place a trailing stop. As we evolve through this msarket melt more mutuals will convert an ETF or CEF structure to keep their investors on board. With free to $10 trades you can just pick the top ten or 15 holdings and surrogate the fund with owning the stocks.


On Mar 05 01:45 PM 2banana wrote:

> Any kind of mutual fund/ETF come close to a portfolio like this?

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 4

I will now put in a higher limit for VZ closer to $36 than $25?

I recently added 300 (EROC) Eagle Rock post the ex date, a producer MLP, my target is $7 against my cost of $4.45. It is "junk" but if oil should move to a new high over $52... EROC has given their investors the bird alright. So far they have maintained their "perhaps" unsustainable distributions.

While I own no (TYG) I have found the (BSR) (KYE) and (MTP) both to be working in the last 3-4 months as trading vehicles. KYE has issued press releases confirming their intentions on a minimum target for distributions. I prefer the KYE to the KYN in terms of getting a ~15% exposure to the Can-roys. I have also been mugging up on (ENY) as the Loonie slides below .80. ENY is currently 70% in CanRoy O&G shares in their oilsands-Canroy index mix. ENY gets back to +$11 on $55 oil and that effect driving the Loonie back to .82-.84. MTP continues to sell at a discount. You could still get KYE at a discount last week. That is what makes it such a great trading vehicle. KYE is something to take a little off the table at +$14 where it generally exhibits a premium. BSR is another MLP, no K-1 no UBTI issues investment. A great buy and yield below $22 and time to off load a little over $25. For weak dollar plays there are the non O&G Loonie beaten Trusts still paying out. Chemtrade (CGIFF)pulp and fertilizer chemicals, Bird Construction (BIRDF) general consrtruction but concentrated in the oil,gas, and oil sands infrastructure business. Possible benefactors of trans-Alaska Nat gas pipeline project as well as 2010 Vancouver/WhistlerBlac... Winter Olympics. (GLHIF) Great Lakes Hydro hydrology is best in 2nd qtr. Record profits and production in 2008. New generating capacity that just became accretive in Feb. The Loonie is going to reassert itself on the back of the worlds best managed economy with the worlds strongest banking system. We note the Chinese grumbling and the Ten year note tanking.

I would just add a couple international integrated issues as well. i am holding some BP and might add to it if it drops below $33. The REP-PA went Ex uyesterday. Inclusive of the distribution it has had a monster move higher the last few days off the $16.85 where I added shares last week. These internationals will of course benefit from the US dollar weakening. The IRR Closed end fundd is also something I am targeting but still do not own.

I do own the coal MLP rich closed end fund BGR. Iron ore prices have moved higher in China as of late. Met coal is the best and you can ~speculate~ once again in Canada in (GACHF) Grande Cache and (HLSRF) Hills borough getting those MT s of Met coal out of the ground and to market. ~Apparently~ their hedges are good enough to sustain their businesses until the next big upturn in steel.

In the utilities you can return to (GLHIF) or perhaps dabble in the tax advantaged/disadvantag... stapled units of ATPWF Atlantic power. Some what speculative and perhaps some debt issues. Atlantic power has their debt and distributions in Loonies. An income/dividend scheme avoids Can with holding but incurs US bond income tax. ATPWF has their generating and grids in the US and may capture some infrastructure stimulus benefits. I own them both and have recently added the beaten down (AES-PrC). The AESPC had a monster move higher yesterday on the weakening US dollar. They are profitable enough to be able to pay their debt obligations that were substantially retired and/or restructured in 2007-2008. (HNP) is coming up on their annual EX date. I have not owned these shares as of late but they make a good trade between $26 and $32 with the ex date for the full year distribution looming in a few weeks. With it's expansion into the Nat gas pipeline service the Empire District Electric common looks ~OK~ to me with it's generous yield. (EDE) a great payer but more likely a takeover candidate at this depressed valuation.

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 2

I have no blog but "seeking alpha" has all of my posts on record and the ones on Great Lakes Hydro can be read by simply clicking on " 57 Comments". There is also a discussion of ATPWF in that history.


On Mar 04 04:03 AM Cliff Wachtel wrote:

> Thanks for the detailed comments. Great minds work alike. Where is
> your blog? Definetely worth checking further. thanks again, will
> try to pursue your suggestions, which at first glance seem very solid.
> thanks again, Cliff

The High Dividend Stock Investor's Collapsing Dollar Survival Guide, Part 2

I am on the same page with you! Thank you for your analysis of ATPWF in your 2/15 blog. Wow!... I own so many of these issues that you have outlined in this blog. I would also thank those that contributed insightful remarks there on ATP as well

Mostly I am bearish the US dollar vs Loonie against remarks from Jim Rodgers, Mark Zandi and Dennis Gartman. Now I add your voice to the list. As far as the Loonie goes though it seems a hard road to travel as of late. If you blog into a (FXC) you might find some blogs authored by a Kathy Lien. She is a currency strategist and over the last 6 weeks has made some very prescient and correct observations on the Loonie. She seems to feel this Loonie weakness may persist a bit longer. This morning we have the BOC cutting rates in line with the US Fed. Ms Lien does propose that stronger oil prices are the underlying foundation for a higher Loonie.

At this point I am holding my ATPWF shares but have not added. The acquisition in Fla one poster called "ballsey", is exactly what has held me back along with how far down these stapled units have dropped. I am not 100% comfortable with the debt situation. I don't even know if the debt situation is that well known/understood? They are not reporting 4th quarter and year end total results until the end of March. This seems a little late. Again I would have been more comfortable with some guidance press release in the interim. I recently added 100 (BP)at $39.40 and have not prospered, yet. I have some(AVV) in an IRA. I bought (ENY) to get the Canroy O&G trusts. With a $10.50 cost basis I am getting killed in that . I recently added 300 REP-PRA , I believe this is as solid as TOT. They are going to be on second base when the offshore oilCuba ball game starts. I have a limit order in for 200 VZ below $26. I am getting a little concerned about their claims to continue taking share. The pie is still shrinking even while most dump their land line belfore giving up the profitable mobile. Right now FCX-PRM sells at a $5 premium to the mandatory conversion of 5/01/10. Not that far away. I may bite on it but it looks dicey with the arm twisting so near a date. Yesterday's meltdown allowed me to add to KYE more Canadian Canroy trusts and MLPs. I also added to the "note" BSR the MLP index instrument. I also added the iron ore producer rich BCF. I am holding coal MLP rich BGR which also holds a lot of MLPs as well. My best holding has been the MLP CEF MTP. This one still trades at a discount to NAV as does BSR at its current price. All of these remove the UTBI and K-1 issues. Yesterday I took an initial position in CHK-PRD at $53.62/ ended @$55. I have also recently added a position in ChemTrade CGIFF/CHE.UN. Huge dividend and hugely beaten down like ATPWF. So as far as risky I am the pot calling the kettle... by going there instead of adding more ATP. I think I am just going to wait for these end of year numbers and 4th qtr results to be published at ATP to see if there are any overhangs in this equity.

That leads me to Great Lakes Hydro. With 2800 units It is my largest single holding. I have written on many of these Canadian investment blogs in length on GLHIF, in terms of the (BAM) Flatt issue/ the record profits and production in the 2008 annual results, the leverage to the Loonie / the 1st qtr vs 2nd qtr Hydrology issues and the +$20 52 week high valuation. Even as the US dollar continued to knock down the Loonie and GLH-UN.to was off on the TSX , GLHIF posted a 4 cent move higher in yesterday's melt down. I would encourage anyone to click on my Blogs list, to get my full perspective on GLHIF, which I regard as the value of a life time with it's very secure 6.5-7% effective dividend against it's 8.2% distribution. I have gotten into this position since the closing of the BDF of Dec '08, basically as a whale follower at a valuations below the BDF 16 CD$.

I would hope the author might be able to make some remarks on the Canadian issuances not mentioned CGIFF/Chem-Trade, BIRDF/ Bird Construction, and ATBUF/Acadian Timber (45% owned by BAM). AES another energy international that could benefit from a weaker dollar has been hammered down after reporting EARNINGS! in the last qtr results. They missed by about 15cents to a $1.10 against projected $1.25? I have the AES-PRC @$34 and am under water in it. I am holding and will most likely add on a drop to just below $30 if it gets there. The ADM-PRA is another I just added another 200 to yesterday as well. Rogers loves the soft commodities and Gartman while not keen on commodities yet says the soft commodities should out perform in the sector.