Delojozafado

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

I am a total lunatic with three partials in (SRS) and looking to add at $21.XX. I love the (TBT) and am hoping to unload some of it today while the trend is still up. I have sold out completely of two LT bond Funds in the last 2 weeks for nice gains (ICB), & (BDF). I just unloaded a junk bond/bank debt fund as well (VTA) for a very slight loss as things are just too scary up at this level. I have raised over $100K in cash in the last 6 weeks for some great gains. I have fired my former slime ball predator Raymond James Broker. Too bad it is a great highly reputable firm but they let this POS work there and misrepresent and sell inappropriate crap! They will learn. If only I can get out from under some TBT so when it derops back below $45 again I can buy some (TMV). Why are the AGQ,DGP., and PTM working so well? well there is the physical holder platinum ETF comming. Now we see these VIX ETFs just introduced. i agree with the authors "slow money" fast money leveraged professional trader scenario. By the time the late to the party, panicked that they were missing out on this raly individual, mutual fund, and pension fund investors figure it out there will be tha dearth of buyers. Remember those +5% one day down days last year? As Naufal has pointed out, what has changed. YUM & BWW profits are up and they are hiring at $11.50 an hour? These kinds of jobs can not even support the utilities, insurance and property taxes on a house! The (TBT) action is telling us that the sub 5% 30 year mortgage is about to be a brief footnote in history!

A Bear in Bull's Clothing: We're Not Buying This Rally

I have been selling this rally! So sad to have just seen my position in CHK-PrD go away on Friday at $64.87. My entire ENY gone, 1/2 at $13.87 and the rest at $13.30. BCF gone at $6.84 and $7.08. FXI stopped out at $28.11. KYE 25% of the position gone in the pre ex div frenzy @$15.09. I await some add'l strength in stocks to pile into some SRS, and perhaps some DGP& AGQ. This will just be one more really ugly, "Sell in May and go away", prlude to more very dismal market performances in July and Sept. Real unemployment counting the "underemployed" who must actually be counted is over 15%. 50 million people world wide have lost jobs. Madame Death is out this morning with more on the global banking fiasco. Together world banks have written down their total loan portfolios to 98 cents on the dollar so far.... So far accounting for and writing down only about 1.75 trillion of the known $4 trillion in bad debt . The Autos and their suppliers are currently being thrown under the bus. The consumer credit fiasco has just begun to assert itself. After all auto sales are backed with the lost job take back covenant where will the returned vehicles go? Banks won't lend to consumers for the old reasons. No job is safe in this economy. The commercial real estate market is also imploding with the General Growth and Centro type Mall operators dying on the vine even as unemployment runs out and the apartment REITs will get hit next. Meanwhile the office property Reits are just hanging on, for now. Oil has already rebounded from $33 already 60% off it's bottom and OPEC determined to defend $40.
All the base metals have gone higher as well. The US dollar is becoming akin to a sole', peso, or zloty. Any commodity/energy centric theme with yield will perform as nicely as they have performed since the Oct, Nov and Feb lows in the next "bear market rally" off the retest of recent lows that will no doubt be seen in July or Sept. In the mean time those that are left in hand against trimming will continue to pay their distributions and rebound nicely after you have had a chance to add on weaknes to your positions.