Aceditor

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

I interviewed Fatih Birol for my film 'PetroApocalypse Now?' on PBS/CBC. He is really scared about what a mess we are in as far as oil saying "We must leave oil before oil leaves us". But he has a difficult job - how do you tell the world that the lifeblood of the world economy is going to be less and less available? Slowly and carefully. There shall be further revelations over the next couple of years from the IEA as the truth comes out. To tell it now would cause panic.

As far as investing I would see the clip: Colin Campbell predicts credit crunch due to peak oil 2005:
uk.youtube.com/watch?v...

Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

Peak oil is now... Production declined again last month. We arn't likely ever to get above 87mb/d. The IEA now say that global decline rates are as much as 9% this means we need 2 Saudi Arabias of new production every 3 years just to stay flat.... This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks like SU and PBR cheap...

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

skyemoor- You are right about speculation, it cannot be blamed for the rising prices as more down bets were placed than up bets, when the prices were rising. You are WRONG about demand though, the IEA forecast global demand to grow 0.9% this year, 1.1% next year, most of the demand grow coming from countries that subsidise gas.

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

I'm afraid the only bubble here is the one you live in... US demand may have declined but 2008 demand has increased. Supply has increased only slightly this year after 4 years of flat production. The reason for the recent price decline is purely fundamentals. US/Euro demand is weakening, but crucially Chinese demand has weakened in the last 2 months becasue of the build up to the Olympics (wondering where the smog was?) this will change as the factories and the traffic are allowed to restart. $130 this time next month.