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  • Why Are Treasury Yields so Low? Chalk It Up to Supply and Demand [View article]
    One other reason, as I touched on here:, is the currency pegs, both soft and hard that are maintained around the world. China, and many other countries in Asian and Latin America need to keep buying to maintain their pegs.
    Jul 22 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro currency may succumb to debt crisis [View article]
    Agree totally. Flawed model as it is today. Unless they do something radical like finding a mechanism to put a country on "probation" or "junk" with a second tier of the euro to reflect that status and higher borrowing costs. Then having them "earn" their way back to AAA euro status. Leaving only the AAA countries with full euro currency use. They could flood the money supply for "euro II" and devalue it, to have a way out. Similar to what countries have done in the past with their own currencies, but now cannot with a bunch of them having a common currency, I think collapse is likely, but it may take a couple of years.
    Jul 20 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ron Paul to fellow House members, as they prepare to vote on the "Cut, Cap and Balance" bill: "What we really need is a constitutional amendment to limit taxes and spending, not simply to balance the budget. What we need is a dramatically smaller federal government. If we achieve this, a balanced budget will take care of itself."  [View news story]
    Unless we restructure medicare and social security the remaining discretionary budget is not where the savings are. Neither is defense spending either. Some very good analysis here: The lower tax religion is great, unless the majority of people want something from the government.
    Jul 19 07:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, Don't Buy Back Shares - Here's Something Else [View article]
    Share repurchases tend to help company EPS, but that is about it. I would rather have the dividend as the reward rather than speculating on share price appreciation; if I have to choose between the two. Decent article here: on the topic.
    Jul 18 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Halliburton's (HAL -0.15%) earnings: "North America continues to deliver very strong growth in revenue and profitability, while international profit recovered modestly. As a whole, our level of operating margin was the highest it has been since 2008." (PR)  [View news story]
    HAL passed my quant screen based on its fundamentals back in early March. Their stock has had a decent run-up, but it has a little further to go. Like what they have reported here.
    Jul 18 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of Diversification [View article]
    This is well done. I think that the correlation of risk/return of asset classes is still surprising, but what we have seen in recent years, as more money pours into all different types of classes the returns do seem to have converged. I wonder if there is a good argument here for active investment management? Since the asset classes are really indices when you measure them in an overall sense.
    Jul 17 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft Should Borrow Heavily to Buy Back Shares [View article]
    I am not the biggest fan of stock buybacks, since most times the company cannot value itself and they buy their shares at a premium. This would be one case where it does make sense, since MSFT's financial performance and stock price performance have diverged significantly. They should use the cash on the balance sheet though, why issue debt if you really do not need it? Raising their dividend may due just as much for their valuation as a buyback.
    Jul 15 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Apple and Cisco Multiples, Or How to Truly Value Stocks [View article]
    Speculation is what make the seemingly overvalued even more overvalued...I do not have a problem with that, I just would not be a buyer under those conditions. Stocks go up for lots of reasons, it depends on what you are comfortable with.
    Jul 15 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Large-Cap Bubble Stocks We Rate a Strong Sell [View article]
    On a fundamental valuation basis all of these are way overvalued, but I would not short if the technicals are strong (which I have not looked at on these) - that's my "rule of thumb". Bubble is now an overused term - many stocks and sectors are overvalued for a period of time; I think of bubble in terms of impact. Small bubbles happen all the time.
    Jul 15 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact if Apple Opts for a Share Buyback [View article]
    AAPL's forward P/E is around 14-15, and there is "no negative events priced into the stock"? If that were true the forward P/E would be much higher. Its priced around the market average on a P/E basis but with much better than average growth.

    Share buybacks are usually terrible for investors of companies, since most management do not know how to value themselves and buy cynically thinking it will boost the price. Or they do it for earnings engineering like IBM under Gerstner. I own AAPL, and if they want to use their cash, start a dividend.
    Jul 14 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Analysts Set to Eat Crow Again [View article]
    Not sure why INTC is a little unloved right now, but I am long Intel as well. Love the dividend, dividend growth rate, and the decent valuation relative to growth.
    Jul 14 09:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Is Likely to Keep Punishing Shorts [View article]
    So long as the technical levels look positive the stock will continue its rise or at least hold the levels. The valuation does not justify its current estimate - some optimistic growth of tripling profits each year for the next couple of years, would have to happen for it to be fairly valued.

    Its a big time speculation right now, along with AMZN and FFIV.
    Jul 14 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 30 Growth Stocks Hedge Funds Are Crazy About [View article]
    I think NFLX, FFIV and AMZN are pretty expensive on the valuation side; AAPL, MA, V, HAL, FCX, are cheap and passed my quant screen months ago. Some good long term potential there - recent AAPL performance in stock price in not in line with its fundamentals, but it could still struggle to appreciate much in the next few months.
    Jul 13 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe: A Cornucopia of Crises [View article]
    Ok - you blew any potential credibility right there. If you take all government transfers for all Federal, State, and municipal funds, its still less of a social safety net than Canada. It was published by the Fraser Institute in Canada several years ago. You have no facts to back this claim up at all.
    Jul 12 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe: A Cornucopia of Crises [View article]
    The government at the Federal level sets fiscal policy - I do not see what is confusing there. Its a dysfunctional system, but there is a system that usually produces a budget. The last couple of years are poor examples though.
    Jul 12 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment