Summy

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

The total hedge book on gold producers is the lowest it's been in 20 years. Obviously the producers think the metal is inexpensive relative to the CRIMEX price. ABX is estimated to have 9 million oz foward hedged at around $400 which they have taken of their books and added to their oz's in the gound. ABX is either going to have to go long and close these for a loss soon or pull some type of Enron...

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

Bill~

I'll see if I can dig up some documents I saved from Stephen Jen in 2004 (I used to work there). He essentially said the bear market in the U$D was over. You won't find this online... It's burried back with the guys who said crude oil had an "Iraq War Premium" when it fell back to the $20's in March of 2003. Remember, MS and other institutions underwrite and sell bonds. I don't think anyone needs to be a rocket scientist to see there is no shortage of debt coming on to the market (the bubble as the market cap for derivatives exceeds 550 trillion and the US Bond market is estimated to be twice the size of the equity market). The "slowing economy" spin is good for the bond salesmen. I agree with USA, Inc being a sick company but there are other parts of the world which are growing economically.

There are very few quality gold deposits coming online. Much the same for copper or silver. Listen to the CEO of FCX... Here in the USA we've got plenty of guys in suits selling mortages and annuities and very little geologists or engineers in the world of making "things" so the confusion of this matter is understandable. It's also significant to note how many americans trust the information portrayed to them my Wall Street and the major media. The Wall Street Journal removed all their long term charts on the "Money & Investing" page... A picture of the U$D going down and commodities going up might help draw some different conclusions:

1. If the U$D goes down... what is it decreasing relative to? Answer: The .USDX is over 50% the Euro and 5 other currencies so the .USDX might not be the best indicator. I would think the best indicator would be the physical bullion market (which is very small at this point but will sometime grow to be the market like 1980).

Short term guess... I think we might all have the Amero in 2012. WHat would get us there? A U$D crisis...

www.youtube.com/watch?...