vespuce

Monday, September 8: Week in Review

This is the mother-of-all corrections....and who knows when it will end. Technically silver looks very weak, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes lower to sideways for a few months. Market sentiment is shattered and a lot of people are heavily underwater - but that's all just short term trading noise. As a long term store of value, I don't think anything is safer than gold and silver.

Monday, September 8: Week in Review

If you go back bit further in time you'll see. Try 1900, 1800 etc. Getting in on at an extreme panic spike high to over-vauled levels at the end of decade long boom is unlikely to yield good returns over the next few decades. However, if like me you are incredibly gifted (aka lucky) and can time the market, the returns looks far better. I bought a ridiculous amount of gold in 2001, and was quite late to the silver party with my first large physical position taken in 2005. That wealth is not just protected, it appears to be growing at about 25% pa.

Best advice, as above, it to accumulate over time, especially after the big corrections.

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets

Chris B

#1 I think you are wrong on many levels here. Insider trading is illegal and most people are too afraid/ moral/ underfunded to act. Sensitive market moving info is kept to an absolulte minimum no. of senior people in my experience, with codenames and chinese walls etc. If a big institution were to engage in any market manipulation it could be controlled by a very small group.

#2 Gold and silver prices are not at historically high levels compared to just about any other asset class, especically when adjusted for inflation. Yes, they have gone up 7years in a row, but from a very low base. I don't understand your point here at all, as the current manipulation theory suggests prices are artifically low, not artifically high (propped up) as was the case with the Hunts Bros.

#3 I believe the majority of phyiscal precious metal investors are interested in preserving wealth from currency debasement, reducing counterparty credit risk (banks and brokers) and consider them good value at current levels (based on cost of production, historical ratio's to other assets etc)

#4 Jewellary demand accounts for about 10% of total annual demand. Investment demand is even less (for silver) and it's this growth that is driving the current retail shortages. Mine supply isn't forecast to expand much. Geologists estimate 30-40years below ground reserves for silver, which in any case is a by-product of other metals, and therefore price in-elastic. But the biggest source of demand for silver is industry at approx 70% (this may reduce, but is not showing any signs of abating so far). Any trouble the financial system runs into will lead to surges in investment demand. I believe more and more people will be drawn to gold and silver as they learn about the current monetary / debt system.