MarcV

UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs

I am going to have to do some research into what insiders of these reits are doing especially commercial reits as that is the next logical shoe to drop. I wish there was an ETF that followed commercial reits, particularly malls and office buildings. Anyone know of anything?

Marc

The Baltic Dry Index Gets Moving

Maybe al of us should be looking at weekly charts not daily, as we all get too hper-confident or gloomy with 2 day moves in either direction Look where commodity prices have dropped since this original post on april 15th. Its sickening. We are still in deflation boys, like it or not. I pray the bottom is near. But.....even if it is, we can stay at bottom like a rock...for many months. Then and only then when al the money the fed is printing gets distributed.......but wait....these arent normal times...for anything! But normally we should be seeing massive inflation by next year, with no major wars breaking out, God forbid.


On Apr 15 03:52 PM Rohan C. Pease wrote:

> Yes, commodity prices, especially the rally in base metals is clearly
> indicating a recovery.
>
> Ramisle- I understand that EXM is a dry bulk shipper, however they
> are still correlated to moves in FRO(oil cotainers), when contango
> spreads widen, demand for all containers will go up, driving the
> space up, hey you could use DRYS, Nordic, pick whichever. Shippers
> have outpaced the BDI because they have renegotiated their terms
> on their debt. I would like to see some go bankrupt, take a lil capacity
> off the market, because fleet expansion is a valid concern.

Is Buy-and-Hold Dead? Hardly

Even warre bffett regrest his buy and hold strategy this year. You think he can ever get back what he lost in BAC and GS in his lifetime? No way. Thats why I do buy and hold (I love the energy sector now) but swing trade for my profits. I have a yahoo board where I document from 4 years ago how easy I beat warren buffett . Good luck all. We desperately need a santa rally starting soon.

Scorpio


On Nov 15 05:32 PM User 10755 wrote:

> Would anyone buy and hold (at these levels) the SPY or DIA leaps
> exchange traded funds until October 2010 ???

Is Buy-and-Hold Dead? Hardly

Everyone says that when we say "this time it is different" it nver is. But that already has been proven false as we have never seen the market act like it is doing at any time in history! And what about the inverse corrollation between oil prices and stocks. And why is gold dropping in this environment? Too many unknowns. In 1929 you had a handful of people like Joe Kennedy destroy the market on purpose. Now we might have God knows how many syndicates all over the world , some working in teams to absolutely manipulatre the markets. I have noting against buy and hold. But if you bought last october, your portfolio is going to have a completely different return than if you bought "this " october. Same as if you bought and held 10 yrs in 1929 or waited till 1932. Buy and hold works.................... if you dont buy at tops! Right now, daytraders are making all the money. And swing traders are coming in second. But if you are not skilled at swing or day trading you must buy and hold. Thats the truth. Buy and hold is for the 99% of us who dont have the skill to trade. I myself am doing all 3 . And its in the buy and hold I am losing. But...................... now. My advice is if you were smart enough to not be invested, you can start nibbling now. But if you are 100% invested and have lost half your money, you dont have any dry powder to take advantage of the bargains. Also...how many of you know when a stock is a bargain. Lets take apple. Is there one person who has any clue at all what its intrinsic value should be. What the correc t p/e for such a high growth stock is worth. Should apple be $20 a share or 200? When you really can disect that, then you can pick stocks. And thats maybe why even the great warren buffet doesnt buy stocks like aple! Too many variables! Now I personally shorted CROX near the top because i had a reason. I knew their shoe was too simple for the chinese and others to not make knockoffs of it ...plus its an ugly shoe!!!! Unfortunately I got stoped out of my short. But you need a reason to buy or short not just good valuation. I pray we at least get a santa claus rally this year or we are dead. I trade for a living and I look for maybe 3 or 4 situations a year like CROX to short. I only trade 3-4 times a year because I know my limitations. I am not "that" god. So I must pick my spots carefully. I advise all of you to do same. Forget diversification. Buy 5 stocks you understand and call it a day. If that scares you, you should not be in the market and keep studying either technical or fundamental analysis. They both work.

peace,
Scorpio


On Nov 14 05:38 PM bricki wrote:

> Buy and hold obviously is poor during a secular bear market. But
> how about dollar cost averaging? It seems to me that would work very
> well.
>

Consumers Buy Into Disinflation

Deflation would not be surprising and it is what happened in the 29 crash. Historically it is easier and quicker for the country to recover if deflation is the problem and not inflation. We could debate the merits of both, but the quick answer is "Id rather pay less than more," even if people are losing their jobs which will happen anyway.


On Nov 14 04:34 PM Consider_this wrote:

> According to Wikipedia: Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of
> inflation.
> Deflation is the opposite of inflation. Therefore, under the usual
> contemporary definition of inflation, 'deflation' means a decrease
> in the general price level.
>
> Interesting thing this article pointed out: the rate of inflation
> according to the graph / analysis above, has gone down 7.7% since
> spring.
>
> Consider that overall inflation was running previously at 5.4% rate,
> and 4.9% in this month; we don't really have a lot of leeway to give
> before the overall inflation is zero or negative.
>
> If that happens, that will be the first even deflationary period
> since the 1930.