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Pink Panther

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  • Dividends: Everything You Believe Is Wrong [View article]
    Actually there was a 15% loss in S&P500 total return in that 14 year period. You had to wait 3 more years to get even. But if you waited another 6 years you would have doubled your investment!
    Jun 13, 2013. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Government Intervention in Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen [View article]
    Living in Switzerland, I can tell you about the debate going on here about the strong Swissie. Exporters margins have been more or less eroded and there's a lot of pressure on the SNB from the media and politicians to set a limit on CHF/EUR appreciation. A limit on EUR/CHF of 1.10 is under discussion. SNB stated that they are going to start intervening slowly (no money printing yet) but gradually increasing until the desired effect is achieved.
    My opinion: Expect to see the EUR/CHF fixed to 1.10 on a medium term horizon.
    Aug 8, 2011. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contemplating Japanese Investment During These Devastating Times [View article]
    Sorry James, valid points but wrong place here
    Mar 14, 2011. 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations Lowest Since May 2009 [View article]
    Stock markets went down 10% since April, as a consequence the percentage value of stocks in the portfolios went down too. This explains 6% of the 9.5%. So the real allocation shift has been only 3.5%, nothing unusual.
    Jun 1, 2010. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is North Korean Aggression the Start of Something Bigger? [View article]
    It was a depression:

    "The United States had adopted the Federal Reserve System in 1913... / ... mistakes in Federal Reserve policy as a key factor in the crisis."
    Ring a bell?
    Good job fed, as always!

    As far as the situation in Korea is concerned, there have been "crises" of the rhetorical sort every 15 months or so for the past couple of years only to have them resolved by frantic diplomatic efforts.
    Despite the war talk, I think both sides know exactly that they must not overstretch their dangerous game.

    Of course investors are trying to get rid of Korean assets now. Remember the Russia - Georgia war in 2008?
    The russian stock market plunged and it turned out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
    May 27, 2010. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil to Natural Gas Ratio Comes In [View article]
    IMHO the natgas to crude ratio is as useful as the copper to lean hogs ratio. We are comparing two commodities witch cannot be exchanged for each other (short term), crude being in diminishing supply but in rising demand from the emerging economies, while there is plenty of natgas around for decades.
    Therefore the ratio is bound to drift away from the past over the long term.
    May 19, 2010. 01:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A Speculative but Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    Watch the contango loss in UNG:

    UNL may be the better choice for a longer term investment.
    Feb 25, 2010. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Chrome OS: Are You Ready to Give Up Desktop Apps? [View article]
    I assume this will also mean that all my data also resides somewhere in the realm of the Big G.
    So the next logical question for me is in which format. If this format is something "open" I would consider using it. If its something proprietary, locking me to Google "forever", I'd refuse.
    Nov 19, 2009. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slow Blu-ray Adoption: A Threat to Hollywood's Bottom Line? [View article]
    I think it's not that customers are not enthusiastic about hi-res movies but they are fed up with the increasing strength of DRM measures. With a DVD you essentially can bypass the (weak) DRM measures (region code, casual copying), while the movie quality isn't too bad either. Of course it can't compare against hi-res, but the format is locked against things which I would consider "fair use" (c'mon, why can't I purchase a movie in Hong Kong while I'm on a trip and watch it at home?)
    This has been the main reason why I still watch DVDs and don't even think about going hi-res.
    The studios better reconsider their attitude towards a more balanced view of fair use rights.
    Nov 4, 2009. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Higher Oil Prices Are Not a Threat to the Economy [View article]
    > this observation taught me long ago that it is monetary policy that creates recessions

    Essentially, all that monetary policy does is following inflation, so it's not the fed who creates recessions but the market itself by demanding higher interest if inflation is beginning to set in. The fed merely has to follow, otherwise risking too much easy money for the banks (see recent history at the beginning of this decade)
    Oct 22, 2009. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Anticipating a Refresh of Corporate IT Spending Cycle [View article]
    > "most corporate notebooks are now over four years old, desktops are over five years old, they need to refresh”

    This time it's different 0_o:
    Unlike in earlier cycles, 4-5 year old hardware still performs reasonably well, so there's no "need" to refresh.

    In the place where I work, having reduced our staff by 10%, there's a glut of computers. In case I needed a new comp, IT department would upgrade an old one with plenty of RAM, but there's no chance to get a new one while the economy is so bad.
    Most applications are more than 4 years old anyways, so is the version of MS Windows.

    I think Otellini is talking his book...
    Sep 6, 2009. 06:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Use as the Equity Risk Premium? [View article]
    Thank you for the link, quite interesting read...

    The problem I have with the CAPM is that essentially risk is defined as standard deviation from past performance.
    As an investor, I don't care too much about standard deviation or volatility of my investments as long as I can buy them "low".
    A much better interpretation of risk would be the estimation of balance sheet risk, earnings risk and valuation risk of a security (or of a market).
    Sep 1, 2009. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation? [View article]
    I'm sorry...
    Aug 23, 2009. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation? [View article]
    Oops, the link above is wrong, here is the correct link:
    Aug 23, 2009. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation? [View article]
    Again, when you plot X against Y that means X is divided by Y.
    So if you divide a bullish ETF against its inverse counterpart (which should be Y = 1/X), you basically get X squared, not '1' (straight line).
    Therefore you have to compare UUP against the USD:

    ...and thas line IS almost straight; it has been within 3% for the past 2 years, which is a good performance record for UUP.

    On Aug 23 11:35 AM E Nuff Sed wrote:
    > Unfortunately Goldman's analysis is flawed because of the use of
    > UUP (Dollar bullish ETF). UUP is affected by volatilty and "decay".
    > Let me demonstrate. If you plot UUP vs UDN one would expect a some
    > what straight line - but over the course of a year the return has
    > "decayed" about 15%.
    Aug 23, 2009. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment