Pink Panther

Slow Blu-ray Adoption: A Threat to Hollywood's Bottom Line?

I think it's not that customers are not enthusiastic about hi-res movies but they are fed up with the increasing strength of DRM measures. With a DVD you essentially can bypass the (weak) DRM measures (region code, casual copying), while the movie quality isn't too bad either. Of course it can't compare against hi-res, but the format is locked against things which I would consider "fair use" (c'mon, why can't I purchase a movie in Hong Kong while I'm on a trip and watch it at home?)
This has been the main reason why I still watch DVDs and don't even think about going hi-res.
The studios better reconsider their attitude towards a more balanced view of fair use rights.

Why Higher Oil Prices Are Not a Threat to the Economy

> this observation taught me long ago that it is monetary policy that creates recessions

Essentially, all that monetary policy does is following inflation, so it's not the fed who creates recessions but the market itself by demanding higher interest if inflation is beginning to set in. The fed merely has to follow, otherwise risking too much easy money for the banks (see recent history at the beginning of this decade)

Intel Anticipating a Refresh of Corporate IT Spending Cycle

> "most corporate notebooks are now over four years old, desktops are over five years old, they need to refresh”

This time it's different 0_o:
Unlike in earlier cycles, 4-5 year old hardware still performs reasonably well, so there's no "need" to refresh.

In the place where I work, having reduced our staff by 10%, there's a glut of computers. In case I needed a new comp, IT department would upgrade an old one with plenty of RAM, but there's no chance to get a new one while the economy is so bad.
Most applications are more than 4 years old anyways, so is the version of MS Windows.

I think Otellini is talking his book...

What to Use as the Equity Risk Premium?

Thank you for the link, quite interesting read...

The problem I have with the CAPM is that essentially risk is defined as standard deviation from past performance.
As an investor, I don't care too much about standard deviation or volatility of my investments as long as I can buy them "low".
A much better interpretation of risk would be the estimation of balance sheet risk, earnings risk and valuation risk of a security (or of a market).

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

I'm sorry...
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

Oops, the link above is wrong, here is the correct link:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

Again, when you plot X against Y that means X is divided by Y.
So if you divide a bullish ETF against its inverse counterpart (which should be Y = 1/X), you basically get X squared, not '1' (straight line).
Therefore you have to compare UUP against the USD:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

...and thas line IS almost straight; it has been within 3% for the past 2 years, which is a good performance record for UUP.


On Aug 23 11:35 AM E Nuff Sed wrote:
> Unfortunately Goldman's analysis is flawed because of the use of
> UUP (Dollar bullish ETF). UUP is affected by volatilty and "decay".
> Let me demonstrate. If you plot UUP vs UDN one would expect a some
> what straight line - but over the course of a year the return has
> "decayed" about 15%.
> tinyurl.com/lct5oo

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

I meant "performance in real term" not "excess performance".
The former is $SPX:UDN (inverse, the link that I provided), the latter would be $SPX:UUP (non-inverse)


On Aug 23 03:47 AM Pink Panther wrote:
> If you want to chart the excess performance of the S&P vs USD,
> you need to divide $SPX by the "USD bearish fund" (inverse):
> stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...;p=W&b=2&a...

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

E Nuff Sed:
If you want to chart the excess performance of the S&P vs USD, you need to divide $SPX by the "USD bearish fund" (inverse):
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Basically David Goldman is correct, the S&P has not moved that much as it seems this year in real terms.

UBS: Where Will the Other 5,500 Names Come From?

It works like this: Just tell the IRS the same story Geithner did a while ago, and you'll get your tax amnesty.

The Feds and UBS Reach a Squeal of a Deal

The first 300 Americans evading taxes were customers of the US branch of UBS, therefore subject to US law, so UBS had to hand their names over or face severe repercussions.
The 52,000 names in the current case are subject to swiss law.
And that made this case also a political issue.
Being Swiss, I'm curious how this is playing out now. A similar case concerning the European Union and Liechtenstein ended with Liechtenstein agreeing to OECD standards, while the EU guaranteed the tax evaders with a tax amnesty (no fines, but having to tax the evaded sums).

Barry Eichengreen Is Wrong: We Need to Pass a Bigger Stimulus

If you can show me how to achieve 6-7% trend growth rate in the coming years with a dead consumer, a deleveraging corporate sector and rising unemployment, then I might be inclined to believe you.
Otherwise this article IMO is utter BS. There is no way you can grow your way out of this hole from this situation.

> At a 3% per year average inflation rate, the trend growth rate of nominal GDP in America is somewhere between 6% and 7%. The U.S. Treasury can currently borrow at 3 years for a nominal interest rate of 1.62%, for ten years at a nominal interest rate of 3.72%, and for 30 years at a nominal interest rate of 4.58%.
> When the growth rate of your economy is greater than the interest rate you have to pay, that is the definition of "grow[ing your way] out of [your] debt burden

China Is Santa Claus - Hugh Hendry

Still, I'm more bullish on China than on any western market.
It's not that the Apples, Ferraris or the Rolexes are made in China, but the everyday neccessities, stuff that's sold at Wal Mart, not the nice-to-haves but things that the indebded middle class consumer needs.
My point is, that China is more part of the solution than part of the problem

John Hussman: Real Inflation Is Several Years Off

There are two types of inflation:
1. the supply/demand driven one -> self correcting, "regular" inflation
2. the one caused by loss of confidence and a drop in the value of a currency; when everybody wants to bail out of a currency before it's too late -> self reinforcing, hyperinflationary type of inflation

I agree, that the former is out of question right now.
But watch out for type 2, I'd be very concerned in case the dollar hit record lows

Time to Begin Raising U.S. Equity Allocations Within the Broad Portfolio Mix?

I don't believe in mean reversion of US equities (also include Europe, Japan) vs the rest (let's call them the "emerged").
There are structural reasons for the lagging of G8 economies, which have not gone away.
The trend still is intact:
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...