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Twest

Twest
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  • Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy And Greedy When Others Are Fearful [View article]
    There are always plenty of bullish and bearish factors, even before the crash of 1987 you could have made plenty of arguments that the market was cheap at 2200 before it fell to 1600 the next week, and plenty of people did. Chris makes great charts and tells a great story, but there are plenty of other ways to look at the market.

    Here are the points that jump to my mind:
    1. Chris had to change to a %Chg in VIX because the level of VIX is so far below the levels it has been for the past 25 years!
    2. Secondly, Commitments of Traders isn't the most useful measure and it isn't just hedge funds that are the ones in that category or necessarily driving that category. You also need to factor in options volumes and net out all of the indexes to understand what the positions could be in the overall futures markets.
    3. Thirdly, Chris isn't looking at Margin Interest, which also suggests the speculation is rampant in the market.
    4. Fourthly, the Valuation of the market is high relative to historical benchmarks as well. The Price-to-Sales Ratio of the S&P500 is very high due to the increasing valuation of vapor stocks (high valuations relative to revenues and earnings).
    5. Fifthly, Leverage: The Fed is taking its collective foot off of the gas pedal and given the extent of the manipulation of the level of interest rates with Junk yielding just a bit over Treasuries, the leverage in the entire market system may be a bit dangerous if it should unwind, even just a little.
    6. Lastly, Trendlines are guidelines, not lifelines.

    Rotational Market: I would say this has been a good rotation year so far. There was good, solid selling in Russell2000 names in the first quarter which have put cash in the pockets of investors who then went shopping in the 2nd quarter for Oil and Oil Service names. Now that oil is turning down, profit taking may commence in oil names and a new sector may come to life. My guess is that global consumer names will come to life next.
    Aug 11 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unilife secures new financing [View news story]
    If we formed an investor consortium, I'm sure many people would like to earn 10.25% in interest each year.
    Mar 14 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Impressive analysis.

    Are you familiar with HCLP? Hi- Crush LP. They make fracking sand.

    Any thoughts on HCLP?
    Mar 5 02:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher on Apple enthusiasm [View news story]
    I've been suggesting that Apple should consider buying Tesla in many previous comments both here at SeekingAlpha and at Tradingview with the idea that merging the two companies (by way of Apply purchasing Tesla) would be an incredible synergy. The automobile needs Apple's innovative ability to take what is old and make it new again. I'm glad these two companies thought to get together to merge in some way, shape or form.
    Feb 18 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Green Mountain Grand Slam [View article]
    Congrats on a great trade! You stuck your neck out and laid out a great trade idea by going long volatility on earnings. You struck gold with your trade. Now what will you do? Cash it in? Exit on the opening at 9:30AM EST tomorrow?

    Well done!

    I'll follow you now.

    And feel free to post your ideas at TradingView in chart-form. I'd love to see them!
    Feb 5 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla completes its own Cannonball Run [View news story]
    This thread is almost the lowest quality I have read yet on Tesla. Sad to see that fellow SA members are dishing such trash.

    Here's what we need to do - it's time to be rational. What Tesla is doing is worthwhile and it is improving the world for the long term for all of us.

    What Elon Musk has done is practically unimaginable. I seriously doubt that many people believed he could achieve what he has done to get to 80% coverage of the US in supercharging stations or produced a beautiful, high quality car that is selling so well.

    Here's the analysis we ought to be doing: It would be very nice to see what the total cost to drive a mile is for electric vehicles now and over time as compared to gas vehicles. Figure total costs over five years and a 10% opportunity cost on your money. That is challenge number one for all of us.

    I've made a number of comments on Tesla over the past two years and I am cheering for what is happening at Tesla. I'm a not a shareholder right now but I have been at various times in the last two years.
    Jan 26 11:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks FQ1: Comp sales below estimates but margins impress [View news story]
    Did everyone notice that coffee prices fell more than 50% in 2013? SBUX margins lifted nicely to 19.2% but only by 2.6% - this does not bode well for SBUX. Their margins should be skyrocketing this past year versus 2012. Clearly the price of coffee futures has little to do with the profits at Starbux. Shocking. Labor and overhead clearly have more to do with profits than does the price of the main ingredient they sell: coffee. Also, did anyone notice that sugar prices were down big last year too? It was the best of all possible worlds scenario for SBUX. Wages are flat, costs are down HUGE and their margins are roughly 20%. Hmmm. Odd. Time to dig deep into their financials to see where there costs are.
    Jan 23 11:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Leverage Is Pointless [View article]
    Eskimos have 50 different types of snow and the modern world has at least 50 definitions of risk. Risk is a four letter word. Meaning that it is a word that causes trouble. Also, everyone has an opinion on it and almost no one agrees what risk is or how to measure it.

    With my Wall Street, Hedge Fund, CTA, Dr. Van K. Tharp Seminars, Trader & Investor background, I am very familiar with the way the author is measuring risk and he has done a fine job of explaining daily portfolio risk. I'm familiar with many other ways to measure risk, many of which are mentioned in the comments above.

    Value-at-risk is a common risk measure used in trading firms. Beta-adjusted risk is a decent way to look at equity portfolios. "Annual range risk" is another good way to look at your portfolio. Use the average yearly percentage range as compared to the S&P500 Index to see how much more volatility your positions have than the market.

    My daughter asked me today "What is risk?" for her financial principles class in college and my answer to her was the following: "Risk is doing something that you don't know or aren't familiar with." (Which I think is a fairly logical reply).

    So, if everyone that bashed the author about this article can settle down and think about how they can just add another definition to the extended family of definitions of risk, that would be far more logical.

    Nice work Andreas Clenow. I appreciate your contribution to Seeking Alpha.
    Jan 23 11:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Money Behavioral Analysis Tells Best 9 Wealth-Building Stocks [View article]
    Can you provide more clarity as to how you get your initial data points? How and when are signals generated by MM's and how do you get the signals?

    I worked on Wall Street supporting a MM with ideas for hedging positions, so I am intimately familiar with the MM side of the business. But what I can't derive from your article is how do you register an opinion by a MM and also their time frame.

    Thanks in advance of your reply.
    Jan 20 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Being 'Right'; Focus On Risk Vs. Reward [View article]
    Nice article. It takes a long time to learn how to invest successfully and to avoid the pitfalls of hope, fear and greed. Like any skilled sportsperson, it takes time to learn how to stay focused under pressure.

    Here's how I have figured myself out over 30 years of investing in stocks. I found a simple solution to determining where I stand on any given investment: If I feel I can tell someone else about the investment and its merits then it is worth continuing to hold and invest more. Or, I if I feel so proud of myself about an investment and it has been a run of good news lately then I will force myself into selling some of the position as my ego is out of control. Or, if I no longer feel like talking or sharing with others about the investment then I move on.

    Again, well written and bravely honest article you have written - thank you.
    Jan 20 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Unilife Shares Is Dangerous Business [View article]
    A company called West Pharmaceuticals (WST) has very similar products to UNIS with the exception of the auto-injector, but one is in development.

    WST has a $3.5 Billion Market cap.
    Jan 10 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevrolet Volt's Failure Foreshadows Tesla's Fate [View article]
    Great point manfredthree to ask the first 30,000 buyers if they would buy again. A friend of mine is an early adopter and bought a Volt and he sold it within a year calling it a piece of junk he'd never buy again. He since has driven a Tesla and he loved it with such passion that he can't wait to buy one. That is exactly the point that people need to understand. If you haven't been in one, played around with the controls, touched the car, or seen the sales presentation, then you really ought to get out and do that and then comment. The Tesla is not only revolutionary, it is evolutionary. Apple should have bought them when you could have had the whole company for $4 billion. Imagine what the two of them could do together. Heck, Apple could still buy them with just a small (<10%) chunk of their cash sitting around in stock market investments and bank loans around the world. Enjoy the day and I look forward to owning (or leasing) a Tesla.
    Dec 12 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Remarkable Growth, Terrific Product, But Still Needs To Come Down To Earth [View article]
    Have you considered selling put options? 35 strike options probably exist going out a long ways. That way you don't forget to buy it when it goes down to $35/sh.
    Dec 11 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Signal From The Gold/Silver Ratio [View article]
    I'd be willing to bet that silver outperforms gold dramatically going forward and the ratio returns to the low end of the range. I'll risk an amount equivalent to the last two month's of trading range from the current ratio and I'd recommend covering the position on a return to the lows. Thanks for reminding me about this trade. My main reason for the trade is that I believe in the fundamental, commercial uses of silver instead of the protectionist uses for gold (to use a grossly simplistic definition of gold). Cheers.
    Dec 11 10:50 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Remarkable Growth, Terrific Product, But Still Needs To Come Down To Earth [View article]
    I live in Fairfield County, CT and I see a different Tesla every other day. And I drive about 80 miles a day, on average. I see the most in Westport, CT, which is an affluent town. I drive through that town the most.

    I would love to drive a Tesla. For comparison, I currently drive a TDI Jetta Wagon which gets nearly 50 mpg on the highway and 35 mpg around this very hilly town. That works out to roughly $50 for a 12 gallon fill up and 10-12 cents per mile driven. If you think about how much it cost to drive the regular General Motors car that costs $30,000 that gets 15 mpg, the cost to drive 20,000 miles any year is roughly $10,000. That would be the cost of leasing at $400 a month plus the cost of gasoline to drive 20,000 miles is easily in excess of $10,000.

    I wonder if a $60,000 Tesla barely depreciates with the miles driven because there is very little wear and tear to the car except of course the batteries. So after a three year lease period perhaps a $60k Tesla drops in value to $50,000 whereas $60k spent on a GM would depreciate by $30,000-$40,000. Wouldn't it make sense to apply that lack of depreciation savings towards buying a Tesla?

    The only complaint I have heard from a lady acquaintance of mine that has one is that the car is too quiet. Perhaps there is a way to make the car make sounds as it drives to alert all the deer around here to get out of the way.

    I haven't heard yet how much it costs to fix a Tesla after an accident or to replace body parts.
    Dec 10 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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