Twest

Gold, Silver and Energy Go Wild

Savvy traders told me that the India buying 200 metric tonnes of gold was old news. Fake-out break-out likely. The futures markets seem to be set up for a big break to the downside because hedgefunds are long and commercial traders are short in gold/silver/crude oil. Expect a big move overnight to the downside. Disclosure: I have no position, yet.

After a Down Month, Wait a Month to Buy an Asset Class

Thank you for an excellent article. For people who love mathematical theory, they should stay in the mathematical world and apply their theories to the physical world. Financial markets are made of human emotional cycles and patterns, many of which are difficult to detect and that change constantly. Hence, mathematical theories do not apply to human emotions because they are variable and given the same conditions their will not be the same response. Chaos theorists will argue differently about that, but psychologists would agree. What the author so creatively has accomplished is to give people facing a difficult choice, buying a market after a large losing month some guidelines as to what has happened in the past. Either, buy now or wait a month. What changes, of course, is what defines a large, down month over time. What also hasn't changed, however, is that investors tend to look at the market after receiving their monthly statements from their brokerage firm. Their will always be change to this analysis because the source of the sellers AFTER down months will change as the mix of investors in the stock market changes as the population curve shifts over time. Young people make very different investment decisions than older people.

Thank you for doing the study of this human emotion pattern to see 'what has worked' in the past. I appreciated it very much and hoped that I have addressed the criticism of the first responder. Isn't it amazing too that an article can generate such anger in someone! I guess that person shouldn't listen to a weather forecast either or they might get angry at the weatherman. Cheers to you.