gemonk21

It's an Economic Reset, Not a Recession

agreed - this is a reboot. with all that a reboot entails. what was once saved securely is now gone, and we start over, from scratch. a good analogy.

Tim Geithner vs. The American Banking Elite

Antiquated - just for the heck of it, try fact-checking before you switch off the ole braineroo...

Elite
–noun 1. (often used with a plural verb) the choice or best of anything considered collectively, as of a group or class of persons.
2. (used with a plural verb) persons of the highest class: Only the elite were there.
3. a group of persons exercising the major share of authority or influence within a larger group: the power elite of a major political party.

the plural, elites, a noun, is also in the dictionary. Tree-huggers - now that's jargon.

On Feb 11 12:26 PM antiquary wrote:

> I hope if nothing else happens people will at least stop quacking
> about "elites." Calling 'em vested interests is fine. Apart from
> the root word being an adjective and not a noun, "elites" is jargon,
> and jargon is something used mainly by one of the demons of modern
> life-- activists who are essentially uninterested in thinking. Elites,
> fundies, tree-huggers-- all excuses to turn off your brain.

Tim Geithner vs. The American Banking Elite

"The answer must be by splitting this powerful interest group into competing factions, and taking them on one by one. Can this be done? Definitely, yes. In particular, bank recapitalization - if implemented right - can use private equity interests against the powerful large bank insiders. Then you need to force the new private equity owners of banks to break them up so they are no longer too big to fail. And then… there is always more to do to contain the power of a lobby that is boosted by any boom and which, the more it succeeds, the more likely it is to ruin us all."

An interesting concept, but how does it work? The banks are recapitalizing using fiat printed by the fed quite literally out of thin air.

Does it make sense mathematically that the failure of 5% or so of the mortgages in America should lead to a global meltdown?

Tim Geithner vs. The American Banking Elite

Maybe it is all going as planned. Maybe that banking elite wants you to play "the blame game" while they loot you. Maybe America isn't a poor pitiful giant but rather a grand experiment run by social engineers who know exactly what they are doing (looting), who can eliminate the middle class who can oppose them only by keeping them distracted a little while longer.

Maybe the elites are rewriting the rules as we speak - remember, the entire fractional reserve system (or any economic structure, for that matter) is at root an idea not a physical reality. Maybe some clever someone is working on a grander scale than we imagine, and is doing it very well. Just maybe...

The Law of Unintended Consequences: 20th Century and Beyond

this is the best thread i have seen on seekingalpha.

Is our corporate/federal leadership culture is riddled with corruption, from the very top down, and has been for five decades or so?

Have we allowed venal leaders to manipulate our society into spending foolishly at home, and backing adventures abroad, for the leaders' personal gain?

Did we allow these very same leaders to bail themselves out of a financial crisis when their calculations did not mesh with reality - using our money?

Have we allowed them to plant the seeds of tyranny right here in our yard?

Does this ecdonomic crisis feel somewhat engineered to you?

Hence my earlier question - what do we, whom Jefferson left in charge of protecting freedom, do?

The Law of Unintended Consequences: 20th Century and Beyond

Mr. Quinn: what is your proposal? I agree with you - I think the orwellian logic of the ruling class is already well in place, and terrible harm has already been done to our civil liberties. I have watched it for years. But I dont know how to alter the dynamics.

What can I do confront the military-industrial complex? I am not fatalistic in any sense of the term - I simply do not know what I can do to turn back the tides. suggestions?

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

the flow of history is toward prosperity.

in the scheme of things, both of us have been here but an instant, we have seen very little, and we know next to nothing.

negativity without basis is equally unsound as optimism without basis.

the sun is shining warmly today. get some fresh air...


On Dec 31 11:58 AM bobbobwhite wrote:

> This article shows a great example of what I have been writing about
> for nearly 6 months......that our trumped-up economy based almost
> entirely on perpetual consumer spending and ever increasing GDP has
> thoroughly inculcated younger financial writers with a "growth at
> all costs" market enthusiasm that is not justified by what is happening
> in economic reality. They seem to think all things financial will
> always revert to the high point of the cycle, and not to the mean,
> let alone the low point.
>
> This optimistic nature without a solid basis, this Disneyland, Pollyanna,
> constant upbeat attitude that all things will right themselves in
> our best interests naturally shows itself in "sense of entitlement"
> younger people far more than in older ones who are more likely to
> have witnessed at least some of the severe deprivation and life-threatening
> hardships of the Great Depression that did not end until WWII ended...16
> hard years long.
>
> None of these younger writers has ever experienced the tragedies
> of those killer days, so is writing as if an authority from an incomplete
> life experience lacking the full cycle witnessing of boom and total
> bust. Not ever seeing a total bust as was the Great Depression makes
> their falsely persuaded opinions as empty and valueless as market
> gains this year.

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

that is true if you buying an index - look for individual stocks which are beaten down but have a solid chance of recovery. With Santayana's advice firmly in mind, I submit that the future is not the past.


On Dec 31 10:41 AM jiltedpatriot wrote:

> In response to the previous posts about "blood in the streets buy
> now", if you had done that in December of 1930 after a 45% drop in
> the DJIA by March 8 of 1932 you would of lost more than half of your
> investment. Bear market rallies are death traps to "buy and hold"
> If you notice every one of those rallies of the late 20s and early
> 30s were followed by larger percentage sell-offs. Up 21%; Down 37%;
> Up 28%; Down 44%; Up 35%; Down 39%. Do the math. The return of your
> principle was horrible in the 30s and looks the same now. Timing
> is everthing. Just remember even though there was 5 large rallies
> of the early 30s the DJIA lost 81%. Sept 3 1929 381 points March
> 8 1932 71 points.

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

Stocks under $1? Here are a few. Fannie Mae, $.73 today. Obama must either make this company whole again, or restructure the mortgage industry. I bet the former. If I am correct re FNM, the stock will have to trade significantly north of where it is. Basically, buying FNM at this price is a bet that the mortgage industry will bounce back in something similar to its prior structure - a pretty good bet.

I bought this stock well under a buck (many shares), and I will sell half of them when and if the price doubles. Thus I will have many shares at a cost of $0. I have already done this with Wachovia, AIG, Citi and Ford (carrying C and F at a small per share cost, but way under a buck).

HTM - US Geothermal: research it - I think you might agree that this one is a potential flyer. Same for BCON. COT is a debt service play, and now a bit over a buck, but a potential winner. LEA is around a buck today - will do as well as the overall auto industry.

If you include stocks under $3/share, the pickings become even more interesting.

My general point is that there are some real bargains out there right now. Unless you truly expect the system to collapse, start poking under the rocks for bargains. I am looking at SIRI - 12 cents/share - can only rise if mgmt can scale the debt hurdle - great product.

For the record, I am long FNM, HTM, LEA, AIG, COT. Also long GLD, SLV, PAL, and many others. Roughly 50% of my holdings are long American equities.

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets. There are some incredible bargains out there right now, some under a buck a share. Pick wisely, and you will become wealthy. Now.

The Sun Is Shining on Wall Street

not sure i would call it sunshine, but the winds are changing on wall street. none of the issues are resolved, but there is a growing sense that we are finally beginning to pull together.

this is the great strength of america; resolve and resiliency will pull us through again. i think i feel it this morning, too. i am not an obamite, actually, a ron paul guy. i am, however, an american, and i understand the consequences of failure.

i think it is time to bet on america once again.

The Smoking Gun of the Credit Crisis: FICO

I have been a mortgage underwriter for many years. FICO is a big issue, but even more so is AUS - the automated underwriting sysytems used by the GSEs. Fannie uses Desktop Underwriter (DU), Freddie uses Loan Prospector (LP), and others have their own in-house systems modelled on the GSEs.

Once the AUS made a buy decision, it was virtually impossible to overturn, even if you knew there was something not right about the findings. Between 2000 and 2006, underwriting standards became slacker and slacker, and a higher and higher proportion of loans were approved by AUS.

I also underwrote sub-primes for the wall street investors. They did not ever want to hear "this is not a good loan". they bought all this trash knowing it was trash - "the model accounts for fraud and lower credit quality" they said repeatedly. Whistling past the graveyard...

'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal

one more thing - the country the boomers inherited was pretty screwy when we got it. the free-spending, "i can have what i want when i want it" values which have fueled the collapse were very much in place, even by the sixties.

'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal

52 yr old boomer - no mortgage, no car loan, no credit cards, no debt. the kids i helped through school are up to their eyeballs in debt. i'm sure they will be back in my house before long.

could talk all day about who is to blame for the debt bomb, and who is more shallow. neither is a function of age. has anybody thought about torching madison avenue yet?

Dollar Tsunami: The Wave May Be about to Crest

gold bug. chiming in.