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  • Verizon reports strong wireless adds, but service growth declines [View news story]
    some quick back of the envelope math. Earnings call states that 9.8 percent of mobile customers upgraded their phone. 9.8 percent of 108.2 million is 10.6 million or so. Assume 60 percent of those upgrades were iPhones you have about 6.36 million iPhones. Assume verizon accounts for a tenth of total iPhone activations. you get 63.6 million iPhones. for 70 percent your number is obviously 74.2. The mid point of those two is 68.9 million. Obviously, lots of assumptions but everything points to a big number
    Jan 22, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon reports strong wireless adds, but service growth declines [View news story]
    and it seems to bode well for iPad too don't you think? 1.7 million tabs. Its hard to imagine that less than a million of those were iPads given the popularity of the iPhone 6. Thoughts?
    Jan 22, 2015. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon 2015 Outlook: Fire Phone, Take 2 [View article]
    Long term? Amazon has failed to make a profit for nearly twenty years. That's long enough for any sincere business model to pay off.
    Jan 5, 2015. 04:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poll: Only 5.4% of U.S. iPhone owners "very likely" to buy Apple Watch [View news story]
    you are assuming that the only way the device interacts with users is through the screen; not an unnatural assumption since this is what we are used to. But it seems to me that haptic interface: the watch tapping you to relay messages, directions etc is a whole new field to develop. The watch won't be a "computer on your wrist" anymore than the smartphone is a desktop in your pocket. It will be a wrist computer. It will develop the kind of interface and functionality that is useful there.
    Jan 3, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Will Be Apple's Year: Raising Price Target To $174 [View article]
    Exactly right. This meme that more products equals more profits needs to die off. There is VALUE in focus.
    Jan 1, 2015. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q3 May Bring A Christmas Present - Profits! [View article]
    prediction 3 million. Result 2 million.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Hate Apple [View article]
    It's quite simple. The market prices according to the value it sees in the "story" of the company. The story it perpetually tells itself about Apple is that Apple is a high margin business driven by a few hit products. So the market essentially values Apple as if it's a movie studio. When they are perceived to have a hit on their hands the value surges. When they aren't, it tanks.

    This understanding of Apple is at best simplistic at worst maliciously mendacious. Apple is not a hit machine. They are the leaders in a revolution that is personalizing technology and integrating seamlessly with more and more of our lives.

    when will the market realize this? probably when all the managers who lived through the PC wars in the 80s retire.

    it's that drama that keeps the notion of a perpetually doomed Apple alive.
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:13 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 6 May Have A Longer Upgrade Cycle - If So, Expect Unit Sales To Fall [View article]
    Respect your tenacity michael, but your logic makes me cringe. Just because the iPhone may perform some of the functions of a tablet for some people it doesn't follow that the upgrade cycle will morph into anything like the tablet cycle.

    First off it will still be thought of primarily as a phone and consumers are used to upgrading their phones every two years. So they will.

    Secondly, it will be used as a phone, which implies the same battery drain, the same wear and tear so it may NEED to be replaced every two years.

    Thirdly, the smartphone space is full of hyperbole. People wanting the latest and greatest. That will continue.

    Fourthly of the two devices the 6+ is the only one that is a viable tablet substitute. And it accounts for only about a quarter of new phone sales so far. So even if true, your claim only affects a fraction of the devices you suggest it does.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:36 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 6 May Have A Longer Upgrade Cycle - If So, Expect Unit Sales To Fall [View article]
    i hope these articles make you happy, they certainly won't make you rich.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:26 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Estimates Of A 1 Trillion Market Cap For Apple Are Still Far-Fetched: Fundamental And Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    bjn.. the rest of your analysis is great, but why do you keep on repeating this "15 cents per click" error? its .15 cents per hundred dollars transacted. Big difference. Apple pay is not designed to drive much revenue in its own right. It's a compelling feature of Apple's ecosystem.
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons BlackBerry Could Post A Surprise Q3 Profit [View article]
    that's the rub isn't? without a clear idea of how many are being made, all the sold out signs in the world don't mean anything.
    Nov 30, 2014. 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beginning Of Apple's Touch ID Revolution [View article]
    actually I think the sensor has a way to distinguish living tissue from dead tissue. if true that would be another layer of complexity. but you're right no security is full proof the important thing is it is better and improving.
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches holiday season promos [View news story]
    So you're saying the iPhones they pay customers for are blackberry's best product?

    Think about that. Just think.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches holiday season promos [View news story]
    Also people who keep abreast of financial news tend to overestimate the number of people who do likewise. If you're not watching cnbc or bloomberg or reading financial sites you likely have no clue this promotion is going on.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry launches holiday season promos [View news story]
    a negative number times a positive yields a negative. So if you lose 1 dollar on a product and sell 5 you lost 5 dollars. Sell 10 lose 10...n. More sales less profit. Similarly if you were making a 2 dollar profit lower the price to a one dollar profit and sell less than twice what you you were selling, well here again more sales and less profit.

    There are no substitutes for profitability in business. Not marketshare, not number of users not frequency of use, not time spent with products... nothing. Some of those metrics may be positively correlated with profitability, but they are not substitutes for it.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment