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  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]

    Personal there is no one phone that is android. There are muriate phones and almost as many versions of the operating system it seems. Why does this matter? Because different phones with running different versions of the software have different capabilities of it and idiosyncrasies so there is no one android for a developer code with

    The threat Apple faces is only unified in name Secondly Google doesn't make any money offvAndroid (nor does it really own it since it is given away gratis)

    There's so little value and android Google pays Apple something like a billion every year to remain the default search provider on the devices.

    Google's cost per click has been going down not up which Seems to indicate that having 80% of the smartphone market or whatever is not very lucrative

    Many of the most popular versions of android see Samsung, Amazon are so heavily adulterated they had very little to do with Google or their services.

    More people still switch from android to iPhone than the other way around. Apple is an aspirational brand.

    And by the way, all of the android numbers are guesstimates

    And lastly iPhone customer loyalty is in the Hugh 90s so the customers they have they keep

    Also, only about a third of the worlds population has Internet access of any kind right now. let alone a smartphone or tablet. the idea that growth is over is absurd.
    Aug 9 05:38 PM | 38 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's Not About Icahn, It's About Growth [View article]
    The notion that Apples unpredictably creates a greater risk than other companies face seems illogical to me. No one can predict the future, but we live in a world of rational probabilities. Apple has hundreds of millions of loyal customers, one of the worlds best brands, network of retail stores, pool of engineering and design talent etc

    no one can predict the future with certainty, but that truism does not sanction the inference that the worst possible future is Just as likely or more likely than any any other. Not when all the facts suggest otherwise.

    that would be like me saying" I don't know if the world is going to end tomorrow or not so the world is probably going to end tomorrow"
    Dec 8 11:27 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Apple's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    You go a bit too far when you say that Apple is somehow unaware of Samsung and the threat they pose. And let's really discuss market share candidly. The fear driving this objection is a hold-over from the eighties as far as I can tell. The argument goes that, just like in the 80's pc market, Apple will eventually lose so much market share that no one will design for their platform and users will flee like rats from a sinking ship. But of course ios has over seven hundred million users. The function that models the GROWTH of the platform predicts that it will excede a billion by sometime late next year. Systems that are THAT big just don't reverse course and fall apart that fast. And if Apple loses the marketshare war entirely, all while keeping about a billion satisfied customers, it seems ridiculous to suppose those billion people will go under served simply because they are out numbered. The US has "lost marketshare" to the rest of the world. Less than 5 percent of the population live here. Yet somehow companies still strive to meet the demand of this miniscule market.
    Nov 7 01:52 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Truth Behind Apple's Growth [View article]
    I use my toys to get advanced degrees in math and physics and correspond with friends and family across the globe.
    Jan 14 02:02 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: 15% Forward EPS/Revenue Growth Probably As Good As It Gets [View article]
    why is the Wall Street is so obsessed with percentages and not dollar amounts?
    in the same vein why are they supposed so focused on the percentage of customers and not the total number of customers or users?

    no one thinks America is in a tailspin just because it only has 3-4% of the global population

    15% growth on a $54 effort billion last year amounts to an extra $8.1 billion
    Jan 24 12:10 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DoD will place an order for 650K iOS (AAPL) devices - 210K iPhones, 120K iPads, 100K iPad Minis, and 200K iPod touches - following the end of the sequester, Electronista reports. The iOS gear will reportedly be used to replace BlackBerrys (BBRY) - the DoD currently has 470K in operation - and would come ahead of the planned implementation of a "platform agnostic" device policy in Feb. 2014. Electronista previously reported the DoD had largely ended BB10 testing due to budget cuts. [View news story]
    Who says Apple "launched" the news? And adding the defense department as a repeat customer is not exactly small potatoes.
    Mar 20 08:03 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]
    as a user of the products I never think of how cool they make me look. I do enjoy the elegant way these devices do what I need them to easily and without complaint. The brand is associated with quality because they produce quality products. If BMWs went on sale people wouldn't think" I better not buy a Beamer, it's cheap now!" They would think" I got a great deal on a Beamer!"
    Jan 9 11:37 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Plunge Makes Sense [View article]
    Samir, I don't agree with your conclusion, but this was the most cogent bearish position I've read. Thanks. My disagreement comes down to two points. Apple is a serial disruptor, they are constantly on the look out for the next piece in the puzzle that they see as the seamless user experience we all value. In essence, think of Apple not so much as a movie studio who may run out of hits, think of them as a hit generating business: like Pixar, another Jobs company. Creativity is teachable, it can be embedded into an organization, and I believe is the essence of Apple beyond all the glitzy ads etc.

    2) Customers don't just buy these devices in isolation. They buy them as integrated parts of a whole. Every device is really just a particularly sized portal to the Apple "ecosystem" I bought an ipad then a mac then an iPhone. I am sure many follow similar patterns.

    The more you embed a certain way of doing things into a person's life the stickier that way becomes. That's why switching costs are so high. Competitors have to not just best the iPhone, etc but the whole ecosystem.

    There are many languages in the world, but how many people even attain fluency in more than one? How many live and work in a country where their native tongue does not dominate?

    So it seems to me that honestly Apple just needs one real growth catalyst, either, phone, pad, pod, or mac. They have at least two in phone and pad. And soon perhaps they will have a third in the almost mythical Apple panel tv set.

    And while everyone assumes google is always in a position to threaten Apple because in essence they are the highway system of the internet and they will always collect tolls and building the cars is just icing, why can't we seem to believe that Apple can threaten Google? If they revamp maps going forward they can cut that revenue stream. They could easily purchase yahoo or any number of lesser search products and beef them up and diminish that source of revenue.

    And lastly, if we make allowances for the 14 week quarter they grew over 20 percent had the 4 highest quarterly revenue ever reported by anyone. Thats with only 1/3 of the world being online as of july 2012.

    Why would you think an enterprise that large and dynamic would vanish, diminish or stop growing? When I really look at this thing, it's "fall" seems as implausible as a major extinction event.

    I know people point to RIM, Palm, sony. But consider how much more of your life goes through a smartphone than ever passed through a walkman. I don't think the analogy fits when you stop to consider it.

    Thanks again for your compelling thoughts!
    Jan 24 05:22 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook does a mea culpa over Apple's (AAPL) iOS 6 Maps app. "We strive to make world-class products that deliver the best experience possible ... With the launch of our new Maps last week, we fell short on this commitment." While reiterating Apple's commitment to the app, he suggests frustrated users try App Store and Web alternatives. A Google Maps (GOOG) app for the App Store appears to be months away. (more[View news story]
    Actually, I have used the maps application extensively in a rural area with great success.

    And frankly, we cannot condemn a companies hubris and then mock them when they apologize for making a mistake. if humility is really What we want, humility is what we should actually reinforce

    I say the maps are good,they're going to get better, and bravo for apologizing
    Sep 28 10:16 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    I see more people discussing the over exuberant bullishness than being overly exuberantly bullish. Here is the most essential point I believe. THE MARKETS apple is in are growing. The Smartphone market is growing. The tablet market is growing. I see no reason apple will lose its position in these markets. As the markets grow, so will apple.

    Also and most importantly, the aspirational middle class is growing globally. The number who want need and can afford smart devices and want the best device to signify their entry into the more successful class is growing. As long as Apple remains aspirational the global middle class will grow into their products, and Apple will grow.

    View this as the world's growth and not Apple's. Remember that barely 1/3 of the planet has internet access of any kind.

    Remember that and you might not think continued robust growth is so implausible.
    Oct 28 03:02 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Future Storefront Volatility And Short Trade Trigger [View article]
    no they don't compete against each other.. money goes to apple either way ...
    Oct 5 06:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Secret Weapon Will Yield All-Time Highs [View article]
    look at it not just as an immediate revenue catalyst, but as another entry point into the idevice family. At 200 it will be the most affordable outside of the tv, people will get it, fall in love be back for more.

    Once you go Mac...
    Mar 6 11:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Secret Weapon Will Yield All-Time Highs [View article]
    Apples "stupidity" converted me into a die hard bull. First the iPod seemed unnecessary, I had music players. Then the IPhone seemed unnecessary I had a cell phone and a computer thank you very much Mr. Jobs. Then the iPad seemed ABSURD I had a laptop, an iPod, And an iPhone. Each time I tried them to sardonically congratulate myself on my own savvy. Each time I walked away owning a new product I use daily.

    Glad to see that ignorance is still bliss in Cupertino.
    Mar 6 10:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurdles For Apple Longs [View article]
    With all due respect, its not a fairy story of irrational exuberance, especially over the last 4 months when Apple can do no right it seems.

    Why would we be sanguine about Apple's prospects? Well think about this. Internet penetration globally hit 2.2 billion out of 6.6 billion some odd on the planet. That's right, only a third of the people on the planet have internet access of some kind or another, to say nothing of smart devices.

    And with these devices and the global computer network they bring to us increasing in power and capability constantly it is not at all far-fetched to imagine nearly everyone being online. They go online to learn, to collaborate to socialize, to shop etc.

    It is also not at all far-fetched to imagine the smart device revolution permeating and adding value to more of our lives as time passes. Smart cars, home appliances, personal robotics etc. Smart textbooks and interactive learning material personally tailored to each student and delivered via tablet etc.

    Now, you may be tempted to scoff at this as being too general to apply to the allegedly specific analysis of Apple given above; so to help you in your efforts to resist the urge to scoff we bring Apple more explicitly into the mix. Apple is more than a large company. More than a successful company. Apple is a company that has seen and experienced disruptive change in industries from both sides of the equation. They were disrupted by the Microsoft pcs in the 90s and disrupted in their turn with the iPod, iPhone, iPad. They didn't just land on the top of the heap not knowing how they got there. They had to observe the maelstrom of technological change from the inside. The conscious understanding of what causes success allows the formula to be repeated.

    So yeah, there's competition. Always has been always will be. But from where I sit, Apple has the talent, the resources and the will to respond to it. Your argument stands or falls with this. If you want to be a long term bear on this COMPANY you have to provide a compelling argument as to why they will not stay true to form and keep responding to the needs of the consumer in profitable and useful ways.

    You tried. Let's look at a couple. The alleged failure to innovate under Cook. If you look at Apple in the new Millennium they introduce a new product every 3 years or so. 2007 iPhone, 2010,iPad, 2013.... there simply hasn't been enough time to decide whether this development ramp has slowed.

    Again, it has worked like clockwork so they burden is on you to show me the kink in the works...
    You pointed to the RUMORED low-end Iphone. Even if true, and I hope it is, this is not a deviation. Apple produces a new product and then varies it in size, specs, colors etc.

    The trend towards a more integrated, technological, "smarter" world is clearly ongoing. Apple has been one of the leaders in that movement. You basically argued... they could fall out of the running, they could. But its not too plausible. Your presentation failed to make it more so.

    Jan 9 06:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook does a mea culpa over Apple's (AAPL) iOS 6 Maps app. "We strive to make world-class products that deliver the best experience possible ... With the launch of our new Maps last week, we fell short on this commitment." While reiterating Apple's commitment to the app, he suggests frustrated users try App Store and Web alternatives. A Google Maps (GOOG) app for the App Store appears to be months away. (more[View news story]
    Google refused to allow turn by turn navigation on the iOS map. If Apple had stuck with with Google maps, The controversy would be why are iPhones the only premium smartphones without turn by turn navigation they had to pick their poison and I am glad they decided to try make their own product. it will be perfected in time and honestly I have been very happy with The program over the last few days!

    Sep 28 10:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment