Nova Law's Comments

Switching from Momentum to Micro Cap Companies

Tue, 08 May 2007 08:18:48 -0400

Cara announces today that "Karl from Brazil" is in charge of developing his recommended list of 100 microcap stocks:

www.billcara.com/archi...

I wonder if "Karl from Brazil" is related to "Aleksey from Latvia" who was also a Microcap stock specialist?

"Aleksey Kamardin reaped $13,158 in just 104 minutes buying and selling penny stocks.

The 21-year-old bought 43,000 shares in a small Wisconsin equipment company that makes, among other things, potato harvesters. He sold the shares less than two hours later at nearly double the investment.

Kamardin, allegedly part of an East European ring, repeated this scheme on 13 other occasions in July and August, defrauding investors of $82,960, according to a civil complaint filed yesterday by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The complaint is one of the first the SEC has brought in response to an emerging trend of the digital era: a modern version of the old pump-and-dump stock scam.

"You wake up in the morning and all your blue chips are gone, and instead you own a microcap stock that is virtually worthless," said John Reed Stark, chief of the SEC's Office of Internet Enforcement. Stark added that he expected more complaints in the coming weeks, saying, "This is an area where we've become increasingly concerned."

www.washingtonpost.com...

Switching from Momentum to Micro Cap Companies

Thu, 26 Apr 2007 08:42:40 -0400

So Cara wants you to switch to his preferred microcap stocks? Let's review what the Securities and Exchange Commission has to say about this:

"The lack of reliable, readily available information about some microcap companies can open the door to fraud. It's easier for fraudsters to manipulate a stock when there's little or no information available about the company.

Microcap fraud depends on spreading false information. Here's how some fraudsters carry out their scams:

E-mail Spam
Fraudsters distribute junk e-mail or "spam" over the Internet to spread false information quickly and cheaply about a microcap company to thousands of potential investors. Spam allows the unscrupulous to target many more potential investors than cold calling or mass mailing.

Internet Fraud
Fraudsters often use aliases on Internet bulletin boards and chat rooms to hide their identities and post messages urging investors to buy stock in microcap companies based on supposedly "inside" information about impending developments at the companies.

Paid Promoters
Some microcap companies pay stock promoters to recommend or "tout" the microcap stock in supposedly independent and unbiased investment newsletters, research reports, or radio and television shows. Paid promoters are generally behind the unsolicited "junk" faxes you may receive, touting a microcap company. The federal securities laws require the newsletters to disclose who paid them, the amount, and the type of payment. But many fraudsters fail to do so and mislead investors into believing they are receiving independent advice.

"Boiler Rooms" and Cold Calling
Dishonest brokers set up "boiler rooms" where a small army of high-pressure salespeople use banks of telephones to make cold calls to as many potential investors as possible. These strangers hound investors to buy "house stocks" — stocks that the firm buys or sells as a market maker or has in its inventory.

Questionable Press Releases
Fraudsters often issue press releases that contain exaggerations or lies about the microcap company's sales, acquisitions, revenue projections, or new products or services. These fraudulent press releases are then disseminated through legitimate financial news portals on the Internet."

More here:

www.sec.gov/investor/p...

Cara may think that being in Canada, he is beyond the jurisdiction of the SEC. He would be wrong.

AMD Is In Real Trouble

Thu, 26 Apr 2007 08:21:18 -0400

Let's review. Cara slams AMD on April 20, when it closed at 14.16. In the premarket this morning it's trading at 14.80, up almost 5%. Yet another blown call by Cara - one of many. He'd rather have you chase near-penny mining stocks. Bre-X anyone?

US Gold May Be the Best on the Board

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 18:19:10 -0400

See what I mean?

UXG closes today at 6.24, down almost 7% from the time Cara recommended buying it two days ago.

*POOF!* The "Trader Wizard" makes more of your money disappear!

US Gold May Be the Best on the Board

Mon, 16 Apr 2007 18:14:08 -0400

Cara recommended buying UXG (then USGL.OB) back in July 2006 at 8.75.

www.billcara.com/archi...

Now he recommends buying it again at 6.70.

Interestingly, on February 7, he was down on UXG, when it was trading at 5.03.

www.billcara.com/archi...

From this set of conflicting recommendations on UXG, Cara has perfectly articulated a "Buy High, Sell Low" strategy. The perfect way for people to lose their money, which is something at which Cara apparently excels.

Beware of the Data Underlying the Economy

Tue, 10 Apr 2007 15:25:08 -0400

Paul, I bet you're the first guy to trumpet bad numbers when they're released, but any good numbers are "rubbish," eh?

Gold Fields Follow-up

Thu, 05 Apr 2007 09:27:55 -0400

Cara gets one right for a change! Woo hoo!

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

And even Mario Mendoza got a base hit once in a while.

Still waiting for Cara to explain what people should do with their UXG (formerly USGL.OB), which has dropped by nearly half since he suggested loading up on it as a safety vehicle in July 2006:

www.billcara.com/archi...

When you lose half your safety money on an astonishingly bad recommendation, making up nickels and dimes on risky options trading seems cold comfort.

Gold Reserve, Crystallex Jump on Government Permits

Thu, 29 Mar 2007 08:50:28 -0400

I'm going to do something that Cara never does, which is admit a mistake. In my previous post I erroneously ascribed the "dead to me" quote to Bill Cara. It was actually made by a poster using the handle "Big Bill." My mistake.

But Cara's real quote was almost the same thing - on March 13 Cara said "I have written my last blog on Crystallex because I am not going to join the circus."

But the circus is back in town, and the carny named Cara is back at work.

www.billcara.com/archi...

Gold Reserve, Crystallex Jump on Government Permits

Thu, 29 Mar 2007 08:45:19 -0400

Holding this stock is no better than going to the casino and putting down your money on "Red" or "Black." In fact, there is much more transparency in a casino than in this stock, which has fired its senior management and had its auditors quit in the past month, all of which are terrible signs that some kind of malfeasance is at work.

The fact that KRY bounces around on speculation and rumor shows the lack of any true value. Next week Chavez can give a speech about nationalizations, and the stock will drop by a third. This is not investing, it is gambling, pure and simple.

On March 13, Cara announced that he would have nothing further to say about this stock: "all I am saying is this company is dead to me." When it blips up on rumor and speculation, as it did yesterday, he's back to his old trick of pumping it and trying to take credit. A typical dishonest Cara move. I believe that he's doing this in order to give himself a "track record" to attract business to his newly-announced Bahamas-based investment advisory service. If you're sucker enough to entrust this man with your money, then be prepared to lose it all. Give it a nice party before you ship it across the Florida Straits, where it can finance a retirement lifestyle for a blogger with a history of bad financial and market calls.

The "dead to me" quote:

www.billcara.com/archi...

Constellation Brands Vs. Diageo: A Good Stock Picking Study

Tue, 27 Mar 2007 08:06:56 -0400

And I should hasten to add that when Cara claims to have recommended a purchase of DEO "when I see an RSI-7 down below 30, I look for the next point of reversal, i.e., a rising RSI-7, before I’d buy," this is yet another lie. His April 8, 2005 post about DEO and STZ said absolutely nothing about purchasing DEO when the RSI-7 was "down below 30." He simply didn't say anything of the sort.

His current suggestion that he called for the purchase of DEO when it had such criteria is another lie - a fabulous construct which shows that Cara's intention is to deceive about his track record, not to give us an honest assessment of how his call turned out. If you doubt this, go back and read the initial post, and see if you can find anything even resembling today's RSI analysis:

www.billcara.com/archi...

Rather than honestly taking credit for calling for a sale of STZ, he insists on adding on an entire fabrication about how he called a bottom in DEO. This is a typical Cara tactic which we have seen before and will doubtless see again.

Constellation Brands Vs. Diageo: A Good Stock Picking Study

Tue, 27 Mar 2007 08:00:07 -0400

Cara claims: "[On April 8, 2005] I recommended a purchase of DEO and sale of STZ; I didn’t want to pick on Cramer, I simply wanted to explain to readers how I pick companies."

A bald faced lie. Yet again, Cara dishonestly takes credit for a call which he did not make. If you go back and read his April 8, 2005 post, he had this to say about DEO:

"Diageo, in fact, makes the Cara Global Best 100. You'd have read that before except the price of the stock at $59.59, is too high."

www.billcara.com/archi...

He was correct in his assessment of STZ, recommending a sell, but if you review his own words, he did not advise buying DEO, as the price was "too high."

I am fully prepared to give Cara credit where credit is due. But in today's case, his current post consists of one part truth with one part lie.

Is There A Golden Leak At The Fed?

Fri, 23 Mar 2007 05:38:51 -0400

Malkiel, I actually know some staff members at the Fed in DC. Certainly none of the members of the FOMC, of course. In social conversations one thing that always struck me was just how conscious of security the institution is, and how conscientious about their work that these people are. Their financial lives are literally an open book for the Inspector General to review should there ever be any hint of misuse of inside information. Yet Cara casually paints them all with the unsupported allegation of insider manipulation.

Cara's allegation of criminal misconduct is indeed the same kind of "crying" that he is wont to do when his predictions prove wrong, as they so often do. Here we are at the end of March, and back in January Cara predicted that we would be at $750 an ounce in the metal. As usual, he was wrong. His excuse? That the Fed is selling its gold reserves!

www.billcara.com/archi...

With Cara, it's always somebody else's fault, it's always a conspiracy, and as always, he produces NO facts to support his opinions.

Is There A Golden Leak At The Fed?

Thu, 22 Mar 2007 16:38:40 -0400

Proof please? You accuse the staff of the Federal Reserve of criminal misconduct. Such a charge requires proof, not simply an allegation.

Otherwise your statement is nothing more than libel which deserves to be ignored, if the people you wrongly accuse don't choose to exercise their civil remedies against you.

What Readers Say About Seeking Alpha

Thu, 15 Mar 2007 18:05:24 -0400

Agree with your assessment on your photo. Smile, baby, show us some teeth. Life is good!

Crystallex on the Regulator’s Radar

Thu, 15 Mar 2007 17:49:13 -0400

What I find amusing in Cara's original posting is his present claim that the "one reason, and one reason only" that he began to tout KRY was because of now-fired CEO Todd Bruce. Cara ascribes truthfulness and purity of intent to his friend, which excoriating present KRY management for the "tricks of leading people on with respect to the timing of the environmental permit."

Todd Bruce was one of the worst offenders in making empty claims about that ever-elusive environmental permit. Here is an interview Bruce gave in June 2006 where he promised the KRY is "in the final administrative stages of being issued the final environmental permit."

www.twst.com/ceos/AEF6...

Yet Cara dishonestly gives his friend a pass, while implying that the lying over the environmental permit is a fault only of current management.

New news today - KRY's Chief Financial Officer quit or was fired. Yet Cara still refuses to rescind his "buy" recommendation. Which leads to the question: What kind of malfeasance on the part of KRY would cause Cara to change his buy recommendation?

Crystallex on the Regulator’s Radar

Wed, 14 Mar 2007 19:27:24 -0400

Cara continues to tout KRY. How far lower does it have to drop before he admits his error?

Fear as a Bull Market Catalyst

Wed, 14 Mar 2007 19:25:35 -0400

Fear and greed are the two lodestars by which the market trades.

Crystallex on the Regulator’s Radar

Wed, 14 Mar 2007 19:24:02 -0400

The post is a showcase of Cara's dishonest posting style.

Cara claims that there was only "one reason" he recommended KRY as a buy, namely, ex-CEO Todd Bruce.

Go back to Cara's January 3 post wherein he anointed KRY as his "2007 Stock of the Year":

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

Notice anything? What I noticed was that there was ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION by Cara of CEO Todd Bruce. Certainly nothing to support his claim that Todd Bruce was the only reason why the company is worth buying.

Jump forward a bit to when Todd Bruce was fired by KRY's board. Did Cara tell you to drop the stock, since his "only reason" to own the company was now unemployed? No - just the opposite. He took Bruce's firing as a reason to again tout the stock as being "in play" as a takeover candidate. Here's the proof:

On February 1, Cara opined: "A big piece of news for this Board is that Crystallex has replaced Todd Bruce with Gord Thompson as CEO, and the company says they are close to getting the environmental permit. If the latter is the case, then my friend Todd is leaving for one reason; this company is going to be in play as majors Gold Fields, Barrick, Goldcorp and IAMGOLD will be throwing their acquisitor's hat into the ring. Stay tuned with KRY."

www.billcara.com/archi...

Cara's final dishonesty in this post comes from the fact that he castigates KRY's current management in this post for being up to "old tricks" for "misleading people" as to the status of their long-sought-after environmental permit. Yet he totally ignores the fact that his friend Todd Bruce has a long history of making exactly the same kinds of misleading claims about the permit. Here are at least three different times when Todd Bruce claimed the granting of the permit was imminent:

www.twst.com/ceos/AEF6...
gold.seekingalpha.com/...
www.prnewswire.com/cgi...;STORY=/www/story/07-2...

Cara is legendary in making excuses and bogus claims, such as these discussed here. He should apologize for misleading people into buying KRY and losing them a quarter of their money since January 3.

Is America Headed for a Depression?

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 14:30:20 -0400

dfilion, Cara has done nothing to me apart from sending me some insulting emails. I'm a big boy, and realize that if I kick a pig in the right place, it'll squeal.

The real point is that I believe that he represents a fundamental danger to people: with his pushing of near-penny stocks like Crystallex (down a quarter since he started pumping it two months ago), his constant wrong calls on individual equities and the market in general (which I scrupulously document in my posts), and his constant stream of conspiracy theory explanations for market events. His documented record of wrong calls has cost real people real money.

I'm perfectly willing to debate facts and issues with you or anybody else. But I will insist we use actual data, not throw around invective as you do in your post. You may prefer Cara's opinions over my facts - by all means, I encourage you to invest your money according to his recommendations. I think a few months of that kind of schooling will bring you around to my line of thinking better than anything I might say about his documented record of wrong calls.

Is America Headed for a Depression?

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 08:00:38 -0400

Gee, this song sounds similar - oh, yes - back in 2005 Bill Cara triumphantly predicted an imminent recession in the US:

www.billcara.com/archi...

And back in early 2006, he again suggested the US was slipping into recession:

www.billcara.com/archi...

And what does Cara predict for 2007? A recession! Surprise, surprise, surprise!

Eventually, his constant "The Sky is Falling" refrain will turn out to be somewhat correct. It will not be because he knows what he's talking about, just that if he keeps predicting a recession, eventually one will happen.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 08:58:56 -0400

Here's something new - Crystallex's auditors have resigned. Such resignations are very often a sign of malfeasance on the part of the company. Not surprisingly, Cara gives no good reason why Deloitte & Touche refused to audit this company's books anymore. None of the possible answers are positive for the company, but Cara nevertheless reiterates his buy recommendation. KRY's shares are now down to 2.75, for a total loss of over 25% since Cara anointed KRY his "Stock of the Year 2007."

With a "Stock of the Year" like KRY, I wonder what the "Bill Cara Stock of the Year 2001" was, Enron? Worldcom?

www.billcara.com/archi...

For all you people wanting to go long on KRY, don't buy yet - you will get a chance to buy at lower prices before KRY ultimately goes to its real value, which is probably zero.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Wed, 07 Mar 2007 14:48:13 -0500

Hello solo,

On January 3, 2007, Cara strongly recommended shares in Crystallex, which trades on the AMEX as KRY, opining that it was going to US$10:

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

According to the chart on quote.yahoo.com, KRY closed January 3 at US$3.68. As of my last comment, on March 1, it closed at US$2.99. As of 2:45ET on this date, it's trading at 2.85. So the loss on Cara's recommendation right now is over 22%.

While you may know "that KRY is a highly speculative buy and can fluctuate wildly on any given day," I submit to you that most people don't, and that most people can't tolerate losing nearly a quarter of their investment in two months.

PBOC Raised Reserve Ratio

Tue, 06 Mar 2007 08:34:06 -0500

Nova Law says that this post by Cara says nothing and doesn't deserve a comment. Personally, I'd be more interested in Cara explaining why Crystallex, his "Stock of the Year 2007," has gone from 3.68 when he recommended it to everybody on Jan. 3 to 2.70 yesterday. People who followed his advice have lost 27% of their money. Now THAT'S worthy of comment.

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Sun, 04 Mar 2007 15:58:11 -0500

Cara said in this post that gold was poised for a breakout to the upside on February 26th.

In fact, gold topped on that day, and has been going straight down ever since.

How utterly amusing - Cara keeps his .000 batting average perfect.

And Neville, sorry you didn't take me up on my bet, I was counting on using your $100 to buy myself a nice lunch at the end of the quarter.

Nothing New in Crystallex Presentation

Thu, 01 Mar 2007 12:55:38 -0500

Actually, the only thing new is that if you followed Cara's advice and bought KRY on January 3 when he recommended loading up on it, is that you would have lost 18% of your money (based on the current price of 3.00 per share). This was yet another terrible recommendation from Cara - and reading his comments today, one gets the impression that he's running away from his "Stock of the Year 2007." And as usual, no disclosure of whether or not he has a position.

Cara's buy recommendation at 3.68 can be found here:

gold.seekingalpha.com/...

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Tue, 27 Feb 2007 14:24:22 -0500

I hit the "add comment" button too quick. I should have written, "I will bet you $100 that the Fed does not drop the discount rate before the end of the first quarter, as Mr. Cara predicted. Do we have a deal?"

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Tue, 27 Feb 2007 14:20:39 -0500

Neville, I could certainly be wrong on this one. Unlike Mr. Cara I freely acknowledge my mistakes. I'll make a wager with you if you wish. I bet you $100 that the Fed does not drop the discount rate before the end of the first quarter, as Mr. Cara predicted.

Gold Chart: A Feast for the Eyes

Tue, 27 Feb 2007 08:07:13 -0500

"This chart is eye candy for the readers of this blog who read my opinion on Jan 3 that Gold was going to rocket from 600 to 750 in 90 days. One month to go, I think."

Bill, on January 3 you wrote:

"I believe that gold will zoom over $750 this quarter because I think the Fed will start to lower the Fed rate. To me, that means we are in the final act of the 2002-2006 Bull market.

Yes, I think 2007 will be referred to in history as a Bear market."

www.billcara.com/archi...

The Federal Reserve has not "started to lower the Fed [sic] rate," nor have they given any signs that they intend to. Your "prediction" in as much as it have proven partially correct, is nothing more than a lucky guess. You completely missed the causality. You've proven no more reliable than a drunk who predicted on January 3 that gold would go to $750 an ounce because this year he was promised an endless supply of Jack Daniels.

Why do you claim to have correctly foreseen this move when your reasoning is quite clearly incorrect? Most people want honesty out of their financial advisors, not lies. Get back to posting the truth and perhaps people will take you more seriously.

NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP

Sun, 18 Feb 2007 18:17:37 -0500

Indeed. I was yesterday re-reading Buffett's 2005 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. In his concluding paragraph I read him crediting his being born an American as one of the principal components of his success. It is nothing to be ashamed of, as neither is being born in the United Kingdom or even in Vietnam. Knowing and being proud of where you come from is an important component of success.

Faber's comment would be more impressive to me if he would adopt the tactic of Buffett - drawing only a 100K per year salary and donating the sum of his life's work to a charitable remainder trust. Without that, it sounds much like a rich guy feeling sorry for having so much money. But while he's free to feel like that, I draw the line at his attempt to reach into my pocket and to steal my money for the "benefit" of Vietnamese rice paddy farmers.

NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP

Sat, 17 Feb 2007 13:26:01 -0500

Where would you rather work, David? As an investment banker in Manhattan or as a pice paddy farmer in Vietnam? Because that's what Faber's foolish comment comes down to.