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nlemberg

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  • What January Performance Portends For The Stock Market In 2012 [View article]
    James ,
    I am very interested in Brazil stock market .
    What are your thoughts on the direction and possibility of EWZ getting back to $100 by 2014 (Football Cap).
    Any particular companies you like now ?

    Thanks , Nikolas
    Feb 1 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Europe Outlook: How The Fiasco Will Unfold, Part 2 [View article]
    James is historically right :
    in Russia ,during Khrushchev rule in 60's , my parents received part of their salaries -about 20-30% in "OBLIGAIONS"- government bonds ,that WERE NOT TRADABLE ,but supposed to be the "SAVING TOOL" for population . Then came Breznev in 70's and revalued rubble 10 to 1 ,(so the 100 rubbles obligation became 10 rubbles ,but still not tradable!) Only in 1980's Government allowed to convert them into real money ,the only problem is by that time you couldn't buy almost anything for 1 rubble .
    Governments will do anything to stay in power ,including stealing part of citizens salary or payment to the vendors.
    I believe Obama has a plan to REQUIRE LARGE PART of 401'k and IRA saving accounts into Treasury Bonds justifying it for "Stability ,Saving & Patriotic Purposes"- same as Khruchshev in USSR
    Jan 17 10:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Altucher is really really bullish on 2012. He notes the effects of QE normally take 6-18 months to be felt (the last dollar was printed six months ago), and reckons that if the S&P were to return to normalized PE ratios, indexes could more than double given today's non-existent yields.  [View news story]
    Maybe the biggest factor for the equity markets in 2012 is an election and possible change in governments in 4 of the largest economies
    in the world : USA ,CHINA ,RUSSIA, FRANCE .
    I am selling jan 2013 Puts 30% below the market on Large Cap co's and will sell 30% out of the money calls on rally this spring
    Jan 2 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sarko Trade: Will Banks Double Down On PIIGS Debt? [View article]
    In reply to your Previous article about affect of country's mood on the
    markets . You are absolutely right ! It is well known the 90% of the market's movement depends on the psychology (mood) .
    From End of 2007-2008 when market realized that 2008 election of Anti-Market Socialist is inevitable bankers and large investors ran for cover or put on shorts on everything that depends on their capital : Housing ,Commercial Real Estate ,Stocks .
    After an election the big money is mostly hidden ( It happened through the history when lenders ran away or were killed by the bad king) .
    Capital needs comfort and reassurance from the Rulers and overall society that their capital is protected to feel comfortable
    to loan risk money .
    Take real estate . Now you can hardly do repossession on the house. It takes 2-3 years of fighting and law suites .
    The market psychology will change on the dime to positive with the election of the business friendly president (Romney).
    Money will pour in Capital Investments .Not only American money ,but World money , since America is still the country on the Shining hill.
    Only large capital investments like Factories and Commercial Real Estate can provide many jobs and lower unemployment .Those are forward looking investments that takes 10-20 years to became profitable and the assurances of the society for the return of capital are needed
    Dec 20 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing [View article]
    Thanks for the caution .
    I would say that even to wake up every day is risky .
    By the way ,the unstable political situation in Russia till next presidential elections in April next may also provide
    negative news flow for European Banks (Austrian banks are heavy involved there)and big European and American Industrial Co's heavily invested in Russia.
    China just announced tariffs on GM & Chrysler cars with engines over 2.6 liter
    I follow 14-15 weeks cycle on $SPX (30 weeks double cycle is more visible) .The next cycle low is due mid Jan and I intend to bet on the lower prices till then .
    Next 2 weeks till 1st of Jan can be in the plus to flat since many shorts will cover before going on vacation .
    Dec 18 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing [View article]
    This is the conclusion of your article as of Dec 1st 2011 where your opinion is stated on the current crisis inflection point :
    " A financial collapse is likely to ensue in short order including spiking government bond yields and the failure of some major European banks. With global financial markets at the verge of an abyss and with global equity markets 20% lower than current levels, the decision will have to be made whether do monetize (or mutualize) PIIGS debt outright or allow mass defaults, bank failures and a break-up of the EZ.".
    I absolutely agree and that's why i am short European stocks via
    EPV - double short ETF and SKF double short USA big banks,
    SIJ - double short Industrials into mid January .
    I am also selling 25-30% lower out of the money Jan 13 puts on US Large Caps like
    AAPL,CSCO,QCOM,DD,DOW,...
    because i expect market to be in a trading range $SPX 900-1250
    for 2012.
    Do you agree with this strategy ?
    Thank you for sharing you views ,Nikolas
    Dec 18 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing [View article]
    James ,
    Reading your articles i conclude ultimate inflection point for this crisis cucle will be Political Crisis in Euro Zone or Euro Union ( such as default /exit of PIIGS country) which will cause Large European Bank also defaulting ??
    The solution you see will come from ECB buying week EZ country's debt to stop the crisis ?
    Is that your scenario ?
    Will Euro have to go to PAR with USD to solve EURO ZONE economical problems ?

    Nikolas
    Dec 18 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santa Claus Rally Prospects, Part II [View article]
    Watch $SPX 1200 . There is an open interest of nearly 500000 puts .
    If the market gets below this strike price this witching friday when the option expire ,the market will waterfall ,especially
    over the weekend when all the traders will margin calls will have to cover and sell short or get out .
    The same situation is with Euro 30 , QQQ 555 ,GLD 165 ,Russell 700
    and so on .
    Federal Reserve intervention on these kind of fridays saved the market before except the Lehman weekend .
    If they fail with their plunge protection team we will see #SPX 921 on Jan 12th as i predicted earlier .
    They may not intervene this week for political reasons !
    It is much easier to push for QE 3 when there is a stock market crisis and congress will have to pass $200bln bailout payroll tax bill
    Dec 14 08:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santa Claus Rally Prospects, Part II [View article]
    Market is manipulated and 'Santa Claus" rally is invented by
    Investment Banks & Brokers to lift the market into the New Year
    so new money is attracted to the Casino (NYSE).
    They will try hard on TV, Upgrades ,Rosy Economic predictions and so on , BUT NOT THIS TIME !!
    As i said last week the 14 week $SPX cycle topped last week and
    my prediction is $SPX 921 on jan 12th
    Dec 12 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near [View article]
    aarc
    Your chart and projections is impressive ,but
    I am afraid to project price movements so much in the future (3-5 years in advance) .
    I feel we will stay in the wide volatile range in 2012 and will whipsaw
    everybody . I sold calls and puts on many Large caps 30% above and below the market. and playing short 1-2 week moves .
    14 week cycle lows and tops works for me
    Dec 8 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near [View article]
    Avi ,
    My prediction on the $SPX500 bottom date Jan 12th is based on 14 week cycle bottom is due that week .
    The price $921 is based on 62%Fibonacci retracement of the rally from march 2009 bottom .Also it will be about 10x trailing $94-92 PE
    of $SPX 500 in 2011
    Dec 8 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near [View article]
    Here is my prediction .$SPX500 BOTTOMS AT 921 ON JAN 12TH 2012
    Dec 8 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near [View article]
    James & Avi great teamwork as far as fundamentals and tecnicals and timing .
    As they say in Russia(where i lived half of my life) : "One head is good, but two better". I do not believe anything will be achieved in Europe unless there is blood on the street ( Falling Banks for examlpe -i believe they account guarantee is only E10-20 k, not 250k like in US).
    As far as cycles I follow SPX 14-15 week cycle tops and bottoms .
    The 14 week cycle topped this week and next 14 week bottom is 1st-2nd week in January , so now shorting rallies or pushing short
    ETFs like SKF-double short financials ,EPV -double short Europe stocks ,SMN -double short basic material stocks , DUG -double short Energy stocks next 4 weeks . I am looking to buy on deep EET -double Brik ETF and UBR -double Brazil ETF
    Dec 8 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 8, 2011 [View instapost]
    What about Japanese stopping production of cars - NO power .
    Is Ford the play on this earthquake ?
    This week is the 14 week cycle low week as i written before $SPX 1287 13.5 XPE ON $95 2011 EARNINGS ESTIMATE.
    Next week risk on !
    Mar 11 03:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 3, 2011 [View instapost]
    Today is exactly 2 years since the market bottom in march 2009.
    What's interesting the EEM - emerging market BRIC index topped
    last November exactly 2 years since it bottomed in November 2007
    2 years from bottom to top trend revearsal?
    Mar 4 08:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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