neutrino23

The Problem with iPhone Killers

I don't much care for the religion analogy as it obscures rather than illuminates. The whole business of iPhone killers (or BB killers or what have you) is driven by the tech pundits looking for splashy headlines. I think the business people are just looking for profits and survival. As such Apple seems to be looking for a secure market position, they are not trying to dominate the market.

The tech blogs focus too much on superficial features of phones and extrapolate market penetration based on that. Market share is earned by a mix of characteristics, one of them being the product itself. In addition you need to consider company reputation, product reputation, customer support, retail outlets, advertising, and many other things.

For a newcomer to become a hit is not an overnight process. Share grows over time and now the competitive situation is much tougher. When Apple introduced the iPhone there was no Apps store and no other phone similar to the iPhone. Newcomers don't have that benefit. Apple and others will not sit idly by and let another company gain share without a response.

My take is that Apple will continue to see strong growth. Apple has a great mix of reputation, 200+ retail outlets that also provide support and now they have a huge installed base. Keeping a customer is cheaper and easier than getting a new customer. Apple also has the power to add more extrinsic value to their phones. iTunes Music Store and the Apps Store are examples. Expect more ventures like this next year (my opinion).

RIMM will do OK but continue their slow loss of market share.

Android phones will replace Nokia as the provider of low cost phones. Probably in a few years the numbers of Android phones will exceed the number of iPhones. iPhones will capture the lions share of the profit and will continue to be the feature leaders.

WM will malinger but not die as MS will keep shoveling money at it. Perhaps they will find a way to give it away and make money elsewhere such as in selling office for mobile phones?

Symbian OS will fade away year by year. It might not be bad, but there is just no reason for it to live. Why switch to something that is maybe almost as good as Android and a distant second to OS X?