neutrino23's Comments

Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:02:47 -0500

Not all chemistries used in Li batteries are flammable. I won't promise that we'll stop using the flammable variety, just to let you know that is not the only game in town.

On Nov 30 10:23 AM John Petersen wrote:

> static.seekingalpha.co...">
>
>
> Franklin76, Jack Lifton told me the news about the TOXCO fire a couple
> hours ago. The website link you provided says in part:
>
> "A fire occurred inside a lithium battery storage building at Toxco
> on November 7. The fire occurred during non operation hours and no
> one was injured by the incident. Toxco and Regional Kootenay Fire
> Officials concur that an internal short in one of the batteries in
> storage is the likely cause of the incident."
>
> While the fire has apparently not taken out the primary recycling
> facility, it concerns me that "an internal short in one of the batteries"
> apparently started a chain reaction that took out the storage facility.
> The question I would love to see answered is "if a short in one battery
> can take out TOXCO's storage building which almost certainly has
> safety equipment out the wazoo, what could a similar short do to
> a 24 kWh battery pack that runs between the child safety seats in
> a Volt."

Apple's AT&T Deal: Setting the Record Straight

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:00:55 -0500

In the one independent test I've seen the iPhone came out as the best at not dropping calls. Also, just anecdotal, but I have both a BB and an iPhone and find the iPhone to be much clearer. In our sales group we joke about how when we call each other on the BBs it sounds like we are shouting in a tunnel.

If AAPL is overpriced at this P/E then why is Amazon so high at nearly an 80 P/E?

On Nov 25 03:48 PM slam stocks wrote:

> The IPhone with all their applications is the most amazing device,
> it's not better than Blackberries for calls or emails used in business,
> but still very good. Besides the business executives, the unit with
> so many other functions is the best available.
>
> Notwithstanding, I totally agree AAPL is far overpriced for a stock.
> they are priced for perfection. Compared to HP the difference is
> enormous: Market Cap 54%+, PE 2X+, PEG 34%+ & P/S 5X+. A good
> company with tremendous growth potential, but not at these prices
> and waiting for a pullback.

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue to Rise

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 01:44:56 -0500

I'm not sure why you suggest that San Francisco was "bubble central". I would have given that dubious honor to Las Vegas. For several years before the crash there was a lot of discussion about how speculators were driving up the price of real estate in LV.

I'm not an expert on this but SF and the peninsula south of there are a little bit special in that there is a lot of access to foreigners wishing to buy American property and, being that this is a peninsula, there is no room to expand. Not to say we can't have a bubble here, just that the SF market operates a little differently.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 01:04:56 -0500

I don't understand why you mention expanding healthcare as a negative. The largest cause of bankruptcy in this country is due to health problems. Sensible healthcare will help the economy in numerous ways.

Will Microsoft Get Squeezed by Chrome OS?

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:03:04 -0500

This is an interesting argument. I don't think many end users will soon give up windows for chrome. Rather, any place you see a PC used for a single task is a candidate for Chrome. Some examples: PCs used in libraries to search card catalogs, PCs used in airports to print boarding passes, PCs used in hotel business centers to print boarding passes and do simple document editing, PCs used in industry for single tasks such as data entry and various kinds of interactions with customers by phone.

The argument about the middle being difficult to sell is quite true. I've seen a number of products suffer this way. When you do find a customer with enough budget and interest to buy your product they are susceptible to a higher end product luring them upscale with features and discounts or you lose your customer downscale to simpler products encouraging the customer to save their money. This is deeply frustrating.

Regarding the hoards of flying executives creating powerpoints, they are perfect candidates for this kind of product though their egos wouldn't let them buy it. All they ever run is Outlook, Word, Excel and PPT, and, of course, solitaire.

Microsofts big, long term problem is that the charge for their product. Just as they killed Netscape by giving away IE for free other companies will kill eventually cause pain for MS by giving away the OS. Google wins by providing a platform that gets more ad hits. If the OS is cheap for them to maintain that is a win for them. Other companies will join in as the economics changes in favor of this. Someday you'll get a piece of junk mail which will be a PC printed on a piece of plastic with an OLED display. To use this free PC you'll have to first watch some short advertisement or there will be advertising printed on the package. That PC will not be running windows or OS X but Chrome or Linux.

Banning Derivatives and Other Such Foolishness

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:00:05 -0500

There is no such thing as a free market nor would one be desirable. A truly free market would be anarchy. A truly free market is when a gang of muggers knocks you on the head, leaves you for dead and takes your possessions.

Governments create markets through a stable currency, rules of the game and police and courts for enforcing the rules. Hopefully the point of the regulations is to ensure transparency and honesty and a modicum of safety.

Why Research in Motion Is a Takeover Target

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:11:12 -0500

I don't see RIM taking off. They'll probably maintain their position or slowly lose share while remaining profitable. They just don't have the software or technology to keep up with expansion outside of their core business (email).

I don't see RIMM as a take over target. Sure, they will have a steady cash stream, but it is a long shot that they will grow rapidly.

I think Palm is a better take over target than RIMM. It takes much less cash and you get a better OS. The downside is that there are fewer customers so again, it is a risk as to whether they will grow rapidly.

While Rivals Jockey for Market Share, Apple Bathes in Profits

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:16:23 -0500

Gartner just released a report saying that Apple's world wide share of the smart phone market reached 17.1% just behind RIMM at 20.8% and further behind Nokia at 39.3%. No one else was in double digits.

So if you look at the smart phone market (not all phones) then Apple also has quite good (and growing) share.

I read a similar item a while back claiming that Apple had the lions share of over $1,000 laptops in the US.

This is Apple's good fortune. The message is not that they don't compete in the sub $600 market, it's that they have little competition in the over $1,000 market. Which would you rather be in?

Probably Sony should have been their natural competitor but Sony never really got established in the computer business. I think they didn't have a clear vision of what they wanted to be. Some time back I visited their sales office in Japan and we saw Unix workstations as well as all sorts of windows towers and laptops. So they definitely had their chance at that business.

Expect Apple's December Earnings to Grow 37%

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:15:36 -0500

This is a temporary ban that has already been lifted. Once they sell out of current stock the new phones will have WiFi.

www.macrumors.com/2009.../

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:14:24 -0500

I can't do the arithmetic to say that AAPL might reach a particular target, but I can see that Apple is a very unusual company. They have no debt, a huge amount of cash, no legacy technology holding them back, they own their own technology and designs. They now have this fantastic machine for developing new tech products. They are not limited to PCs, iPods and iPhones. Any consumer product that involves software is a potential target for Apple expansion. This will be fantastic to watch.

Bye, Bye Love: Leaving My iPhone for Droid

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:08:59 -0500

A handset connecting to a wireless network is a very complex animal to understand. You are blaming the iPhone for your problems (perhaps correctly) although it could be something else.

Here is a test conducted in the UK that showed the iPhone being best at maintaining a connection to the network. This was the iPhone 3G (version 2.2 firmware).

www.mobilehandsetdesig...

Maybe there is something about your location that places you at the intersection of multiple towers? Being on the fourth floor you may have line of site to several towers causing some conflict. You might try Skype over WiFi while you are in your office.

The Problem with iPhone Killers

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 21:33:43 -0500

I don't much care for the religion analogy as it obscures rather than illuminates. The whole business of iPhone killers (or BB killers or what have you) is driven by the tech pundits looking for splashy headlines. I think the business people are just looking for profits and survival. As such Apple seems to be looking for a secure market position, they are not trying to dominate the market.

The tech blogs focus too much on superficial features of phones and extrapolate market penetration based on that. Market share is earned by a mix of characteristics, one of them being the product itself. In addition you need to consider company reputation, product reputation, customer support, retail outlets, advertising, and many other things.

For a newcomer to become a hit is not an overnight process. Share grows over time and now the competitive situation is much tougher. When Apple introduced the iPhone there was no Apps store and no other phone similar to the iPhone. Newcomers don't have that benefit. Apple and others will not sit idly by and let another company gain share without a response.

My take is that Apple will continue to see strong growth. Apple has a great mix of reputation, 200+ retail outlets that also provide support and now they have a huge installed base. Keeping a customer is cheaper and easier than getting a new customer. Apple also has the power to add more extrinsic value to their phones. iTunes Music Store and the Apps Store are examples. Expect more ventures like this next year (my opinion).

RIMM will do OK but continue their slow loss of market share.

Android phones will replace Nokia as the provider of low cost phones. Probably in a few years the numbers of Android phones will exceed the number of iPhones. iPhones will capture the lions share of the profit and will continue to be the feature leaders.

WM will malinger but not die as MS will keep shoveling money at it. Perhaps they will find a way to give it away and make money elsewhere such as in selling office for mobile phones?

Symbian OS will fade away year by year. It might not be bad, but there is just no reason for it to live. Why switch to something that is maybe almost as good as Android and a distant second to OS X?

When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get an Apple

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:25:28 -0400

It would be interesting to know who all the new Mac customers are. Apple's ads are heavily focused on people switching from windows to OS X indicates that they are seeing a lot of activity in that area.

The ads also indicate that this is a personal decision. There are no Apple ads showing an IT guy buying 2,000 Macs for a company. This makes sense. If you set up some sort of a sea of cubicles filled with people doing something like tele-marketing where they run one application all day long then the cheapest computer possible is what you want. If you are investing in yourself then you may consider a higher quality device with more diverse applications and capabilities. Customers satisfaction (as mentioned in the ads) would be important to you.

Verizon's Droid Is the Real Deal

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:38:03 -0400

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. A problem is that most of the people who know about products like this at the roll out are far more detail oriented than the general public. Nothing bad with either group, just that you can't project the reactions of one group based on the reactions of the other.

I doubt that most people care about a phones OS or heritage very much.

Apple has a tremendous head start in the market. They have access to customers through 200 odd Apple stores plus the ATT stores plus online sales. They have tremendous mindshare in that the Apple brand and iPhone name are extremely well known. Not to mention the App Store which has been a true phenomenon.

Droid will probably do OK as it has no competition from Apple on Verizon. We'll see how reliable it is and if it really works out in the wild.

I'll agree with some earlier posters. I travel a lot on business and use an iPhone. Now and again the network slows down but I've had good connectivity in every major city in the US. Only when you get out in the dessert or farmland does the signal drop off. Now and again I see four bars of signal but very slow internet speeds. In these cases I can still make calls and text.

I'll offer a defense of those touting Apple's seeming invulnerability. Apple has already achieved tremendous market penetration and built a large infrastructure for support. They were able to do this partly because there was almost no competition when they first came out and they were able to piggyback on the support structure put in place for computers and iPods. The competitors like Pre and Android phones don't have that luxury. They have to compete in today's world where Apple already exists as a fierce competitor (and RIM and Palm as well). The Apple App store is a reality that Apple didn't have to contend with when they first came out. Android phones face that reality. Most of all, if Apple gets a hint that any competitor is encroaching on their growth Apple has massive resources in engineering, design and marketing to make a very strong response. They may stumble but you have to like their odds.

Apple's Solid Triple Play Will Be Hard to Beat

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 12:57:05 -0400

I use a Mac for both home and business. Most of the time I can use just Mac OS X. My company has a few things that are windows only and for that I use Parallels and XP. It works pretty well. When I need to do something XP specific I run XP and as soon as I'm finished I shut it down and get it out of the way.

Regarding Apple and imitators, this is an interesting point. Normally you would expect an imitator to copy a successful product. To some extent this has happened a lot. When the colored iMacs first came out then suddenly everything came with translucent colored plastic. Some laptops look something like MacBooks, MP3 players ship with white earbuds. This is all superficial. What Apple has done is to create an ecosystem of interrelated products. The same OS runs on the iPhone, the iPod touch, the laptops and desktops. This is a huge barrier to entry. Nothing lasts forever, but with their cash hoard and their desire to stay in front then Apple should be able to stay ahead of the pack for many years to come.

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 03:10:35 -0400

Android will have its place but it does not compete directly with the iPhone. My guess is that a couple years down the line Android phones will largely supplant Nokia phones in the low end, low margin market. RIM will survive but lose share. The iPhone will own the high end, high margin business. Watch for Nokia to drop Symbian OS and adopt Android on some phones.

I think the Android world will be too chaotic to develop much in the way of a useful App Store.

Will Windows 7 Resurrect IT Spending?

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:02:50 -0400

Just anecdotal, but I've visited a number of large companies and national labs on business over the last few months and not one of them has shown any enthusiasm for using W7. I think they will gradually adopt it, but it will not be a adoption rate.

Regarding some of the earlier posts, I will suggest that Apple products are not as expensive as suggested. If you are a student then in the summer season you can buy a Mac at the education discount with a $200 rebate credited towards the price of an iPod. Many would choose to get the MacBook and iPod for roughly $900 vs. an iPod at list plus a cheap PC for roughly $700, not to mention the additional expenses for anti-virus software.

The End of Exclusive: How Apple Plans to Grow Market Share

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 19:18:29 -0400

The article correctly identifies some of the external pressure on Apple to end the exclusive with ATT, it doesn't shed much light on how that will happen. I don't particularly fault the author. No one outside of Apple knows the answer to that .

My guess is Apple will not make a phone for Verizon. They will wait till Verizon deploys the next generation network.

Beyond that, my intuition is that Apple is thinking more deeply about this than simply increasing share by adding a carrier. Just as the App Store changed the landscape I suspect they are looking at some other new feature in the near term that will once again change the landscape whether Verizon is involved or not.

Research in Motion: Reports of Sales Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 14:40:57 -0400

It seems to me that RIMM is OK for a while but I'm skeptical of their long term prospects. They have good cash flow from current customers and they are giving phones away to try to lure new customers.

You get a Blackberry because your company forces you to carry one. You get an iPhone (or Pre or other) because you want one.

The competitors are not sitting still. RIMM has not caught up with the current competition. What will happen to them when someone else starts making inroads into the business market?

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:38:15 -0400

The Prius currently does not use lithium batteries. It uses NiMH batteries. Word is Toyota is researching lithium batteries intensely but they are not there yet.

I applaud the intense research into lithium (and other) technology and it may eventually yield a very useful technology.

The good point about the electric vehicles is that they clearly are designed to use less energy. The problem with hybrids is that not all hybrids are designed the same. The Prius and Honda Insight get fantastic mileage. Many other hybrids get only slightly better mileage than their gas powered counterparts. The car company has to design the whole car to get good mileage.

I get your argument about the EV. I don't go along with you on the PHEV. For example, If the Prius could go about 15 miles on a charge (about 3kWH useful battery, probably nearer 4kWH on the label) that could yield well over 100mpg for many people as much of our travel is short trips near home. This number depends on driving patterns. 3 - 4 kWH is a relatively small amount of energy that could be applied by a relatively small array of solar cells which would help even more.

A separate consideration is to look at the amount of energy invested to manufacture these vehicles. Toyota works hard to reduce the energy needed to build a Prius. If the manufacturer is not careful about this it can take more oil to build the vehicle than is saved in operation.

Pace of Insider Sales Continues to Escalate

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:08:29 -0400

This is too vague a number to be useful. It is a red flag of sorts that insiders are selling so much. However, without investigating why they are selling one can't make an informed decision about how to respond. As pointed out above perhaps many of these people are in dire need of cash. Perhaps they are underwater on the mortgage on the mansion and need to set that right. As the above poster points out, you need to investigate companies one by one to see whether and why insiders are selling. No one has a crystal ball.

China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s?

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 01:20:47 -0400

Of course, it can be instructive to compare any two economies, but Japan and China are so different that you have to be extremely careful in doing so.

Japan is, and has been for decades, a well regulated, homogenous, consensus based culture. It is also an incredibly wealthy nation. Yes the last 20 years or so have not been great, but that has been a loss of growth, not a slide into dire poverty.

China is a totally different beast. China suffered unimaginable chaos after the war during the cultural revolution. Poverty in many areas is still horrible. Environmental restrictions in many areas are almost unknown. Toxic chemicals of all sorts are dumped in the air, land and water. There is usually little recourse if one develops a debilitating disease from this.

China is huge and consists of many disparate cultures. Some areas of China, particularly the coastal areas, have seen enormous economic growth. The disparity between places like Shanghai and the poorer provinces is enormous. I can barely imagine the tensions that exist between the different elements of their society.

My take is that China is still working to build the nation. It is still working to supply basic necessities to many segments of the population. If farm productivity increases they can still bring more of the population into the manufacturing base.

Someone mentioned above about the Walkman being made in Japan and now similar products are made in China. The Walkman was a breakthrough product designed and made in Japan. It brought great wealth to SONY.

Apple computers are made in China but they are designed in Cupertino. China has yet to design and produce their own world changing product. If an Apple laptop brings ~$1,200 retail how much of that goes to China? $20? $40? Intel makes many of the chips. Other components come from Taiwan, Korea and Japan.

How does that affect their economic future? I don't know. I see it as too chaotic to easily make a prediction. There are many upsides, but the disease causing pollution and waste and lack of worker rights, lack of human rights, lack of civil rights, the corruption all take their toll. I suspect they need two generations to instill a sense of stability and normality into their population and to find their way as a society.

Disclosure: I lived in Japan for nine years between 1984 and 2002 and visited China a dozen times or so during that time on business. I road trains and buses to the small towns where I provided training at universities and institutes.

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:30:28 -0400

MSFT has a long term problem in that the PC manufacturers mostly compete on lower prices. It gets harder and harder to justify hundreds of dollars for the OS and Office when the underlying hardware cost is only a two or three hundred dollars.

Yes, MSFT's worldwide unit share is high but I'll suggest that outside the US and Europe a high number of those units are illegal copies that provide little or no revenue to MS.

In China MSFT has cut its prices to the bone to try to compete with piracy. No revenue growth there.

Now MSFT is coming out with free, web versions of Office. Where is the future revenue stream in that? Will they try to support it with ads? How annoying will that be?

This is the danger for MSFT. They have a history of leveraging Windows to force people to use their formats. For example, they forced the use of IE in windows which forced web developers to code for IE instead of open standards. In business you have to have Office because everyone else uses it. If the world decides to change directions and switch to web based/cloud type apps that are almost free, or if they decide to go in the direction of the iPhone/BB/Android, then MSFT is starting from a position of being an also ran and outsider. They'll have a hard time using windows to force people to buy into their proprietary formats if the world decides they don't need windows. If MSFT is not forcing standards then they cannot force people to give them money.

It doesn't mean MSFT will disappear. They have a lot of momentum and there may be a core business in MSFT at much less than their current size. But if they enter a long period of slow revenue decline that will kill the stock. How do you value the stock if you expect revenue to decrease 1% or 2% or 3% a year for the foreseeable future? How do you attract bright people when their stock options are worthless?

Disclosure: Long AAPL, not an analyst, just a guy.

Why Apple Isn't Making iTunes Available for the Palm Pre

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 00:26:46 -0400

First of all, Apple can't formally allow Pre to sync to iTunes as that becomes a liability. They are now responsible for providing this service and if they do it for Pre they do it for everyone. I see no way Apple can do this.

Second, I agree with James Katt. There are other ways Palm could have gotten iTunes content onto the Pre without pretending to be an iPod. This would not have put them at odds with Apple.

How Google Apps Could Cost Microsoft Up to $18 Billion in Value

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:32:42 -0400

As does Wilhelm, I think MS has to worry about long term trends. In business you often have to use MS Office simply because everyone else does and you need it to participate. Once enough sub-groups start using something else (Google supplied or otherwise) there will be a tipping point such that business will accommodate multiple applications. That will be bad news for MS because once they lose that lock on the customer there will be a race to the bottom as different suppliers offer other applications in this "new" market.

Did Apple Steal the Palm Pre’s Thunder?

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:30:44 -0400

AT&T charges what the market will bear. It may seem high but that is what people are willing to pay.

Palm is lucky in that they can sell to Sprint without much competition, yet. They may have enough breathing room to establish a niche. Time will tell if poor handset quality and poor sales will sink them.

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:15:24 -0400

The arguments given are pretty weak. These are black and white descriptions of a nuanced reality. I don't know the future but I can argue with these points.

1. Not only the government is spending money. AAPL, RIMM and others are spending heavily on R&D. Other industries are also doing well. This is why we measure things, to get a handle on complex situations.

2. Unemployment is rising. Yes, and it is expected to keep rising for a while as it is a lagging indicator. This is not unexpected.

3. Wages are depressed. Really? Wall street is still handing out bonuses. Other companies have given raises. How about some measurement of the net effect of raises and trimmed salaries?

4. Boomer retirement. It would be nice to have a study done on this. What will be the effect of boomers postponing retirement? Is it a good thing that they keep working? Would it be better to have them retire and then start spending some of their nest eggs and contributing to consumer consumption?

5. Catch 22. Complex issue. No comment.

6. Government Tapped Out. I'll plead ignorance but it seems we still have a number of options open to us.

7. US can't export itself out of this problem.
I'll agree with that given we've been running a trade deficit for quite some time.

The Economy Can't Be That Bad if Thousands Can Pay $100 for a Ballgame

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 23:11:26 -0400

It is very difficult to gauge the success of a business by the feel of the crowd. I'll agree, the upscale restaurants I've been to lately have been quite crowded. On the other hand, if business is down 10% that means just one empty table or one empty seat at the bar, or people are ordering the less expensive dishes or wines.

Also, spending $100 on something is not that important. In fact, $100 purchases might increase in a down period. If I decide not to purchase a car or home this year I can then spend several thousand on small purchases and still come out tens of thousands to the good. This is why we measure things and keep statistics. Anyway, I was born in 1951 and as a kid I recall that ten cents bought a good candy bar which now goes for about a dollar so while $100 is an emotional benchmark it's not what it used to be.

Finally, I have to disagree with Mark about unemployment. The official rate may be near 10% but alternate sources put it closer to 20%.
www.shadowstats.com/al...

The official rate is a narrowly defined statistic. It only counts people actively looking for work and excludes many others. It is not true that if the unemployment rate is X% then (100-X)% are employed.

Over-Regulating Derivatives Dealers Could Increase Risk

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:29:50 -0400

I'm skeptical of the many conditionals you invoke. Things may not work the way you think.

iPhone Keeps Research in Motion on Its Toes

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:46:44 -0400

RIMM is a one trick pony trying to learn new tricks. Very tough. They bought some market share this spring with the two-for-one give away. That can't last. The thing about Apple is that all of its products are interrelated so using an iPhone complements using an Apple laptop. Will RIMM develop a world class OS, set of iLife and iWork applications and a line of laptops in the next six months or so? Doubt it.