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How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

I can't do the arithmetic to say that AAPL might reach a particular target, but I can see that Apple is a very unusual company. They have no debt, a huge amount of cash, no legacy technology holding them back, they own their own technology and designs. They now have this fantastic machine for developing new tech products. They are not limited to PCs, iPods and iPhones. Any consumer product that involves software is a potential target for Apple expansion. This will be fantastic to watch.

The Palm Pre's Coming Out Party

The Pre syncs with iTunes by mimicking an Apple product. They will either get sued for this or Apple will modify their code to break this or both. I'm skeptical Palm can do well enough. They are entering a maturing market and they are betting the company on one product. Apple will soon release their third generation phone, RIMM has also worked through multiple generations. RIMM has much of corporate America in its corner. Apple has over 200 retail stores across the US, each with a genius bar where customers can get service and free help. RIMM and Apple have deep pockets. Palm is running on fumes. If there is any trouble with this release Palm could go under.

Wild prediction: early next year Palm is acquired by beleaguered Dell as it searches for a way to make money.

Can Apple Remain the Unique Innovator It Was, Without Steve Jobs?

It is really hard to quantify the effect Steve has on Apple. My take is that he brings discipline (being able to say no to distractions) and he keeps the company focused on the product, not on the bottom line. A couple of years ago Apple replaced their best selling iPod mini with the iPod nano. If there had been a timid CEO in place or if accountants and lawyers ran the place that never would have happened. They would have run that cash cow into the ground before starting on a new product. Before that Steve, on the strength of his personality, pulled the customer base over from PowerPCs to Intel CPUs. Apple has great financial and business people, but they don't manage Apple by watching the stock price. That would be death for Apple.

My take is that Apple is about excellent personal and industrial design. Fitting the product to the use. That makes it hard for pundits to evaluate Apple products. Time and again some will look at an Apple product and count the gigabytes and megabytes and clock cycles and pixels and give the product low marks. Yet the customers love them.

One other point is the interconnectedness of Apple products. It adds value to an accessory to have it connect to the computers to and to the online stores. Yes, the iPhone is tied to your Mac, but those are golden handcuffs. The iPhone and iPod are better, more useful products because they can connect to your Mac.

So when someday Steve does retire from Apple the danger for Apple is not a lack of creativity or engineering or design talent but having the discipline and courage to stick to their path.

Apple Investors: Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put On Helmets

I really don't understand how people try to forecast stock prices day-to-day, week-to-week, or even month-to-month. As many have pointed out Apple is a well managed company with great financials, great products and plenty of room to grow market share for their computers and the iPhone if not the iPods. Long term if they continue being well managed and continue innovating as they have for years then you have to expect that sales will increase and that share prices will increase with revenues. However, how do you say that due to this news or that Apple stock went up or down a few dollars? Did you go out and interview everyone who bought and sold shares today?

It reminds me of when I used to listen to the Detroit Tigers baseball games on the radio. Ernie Harwell had this thing that when a foul ball was hit into the stands he would say something like "A fan from Royal Oak, Michigan caught that ball." or "A fan from Wyandotte, Michigan just fielded that one." I always wondered how he knew.