neutrino23

Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

I'll add that I was quite disappointed to read your post as it was so weak, not because it was negative. I think solid criticism of Apple is needed and is very valuable. It would be great to see some realistic expectations of growth or a solid analysis of threats. And I'd really like to know what Apple might do with their cash. Could Apple expand from the living room and office to the kitchen or dining room or automobile? If they can find a way to apply their know-how in other areas their upside could be fantastic.

Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

I think your arguments are not well supported. Your comment "I think major game developers would be quick to establish their own devices and own App Stores, through a joint venture with another prominent mobile firm." was especially telling. You don't understand Apple's business. You don't understand their technology. I see this a lot in comments people make about Apple being a fad or just making over-hyped colored plastics. Beneath the surface Apple has some rather fantastic technology. This is what is driving the business. It is a little like the gymnast who makes their actions look smooth and effortless. Behind that performance are hours of practice and solid muscles.

Apple has been polishing OS X for about ten years, more if you count the years at NEXT. Now they have come to market with the iPhone. Do you seriously think that companies like Nokia or EA are suddenly going to develop an operating system with layers of solid technology supporting audio, video and graphics? Just how is this going to happen? And during those five years or so of development do you expect Apple to sit around doing nothing while the others catch up to them.

When I say you don't understand Apple I'm not saying you should be a fan, I'm saying you should understand the technology that makes them work. iPhones are not Beanie Babies. These are extremely sophisticated tools for transmitting and viewing information as voice, images and text.

Regarding Apple's future, they already have about an 8 or 10% share in the US, and as was pointed out above, they have a much larger share of the more expensive machines. Exactly where you want to be.

If they only kept growing the current businesses they'd have quite a bit of room for growth. In the last 18 months they introduced the iPhone, the MacBook Air, the Apps Store and Movie Rentals and Sales. How about the next year or two? At the last analyst call in (did you listen?) after they announced the quarterly results they uncharacteristically leaked news of a an upcoming new product. I'm curious what that will be.

One last thing. Apple tends to support other products rather than make them itself. They don't make digital cameras (anymore), but they support photography with iPhoto and Aperture. They don't make video cameras but support movie making with a number of software products. They don't make projectors but support presentations with a fantastic product called Keynote. This may give us some hint about Apple's future business plans.