neutrino23

Why I Would Not Bet on iPhone over Android

This article presents a rather amateurish analysis. To focus on one feature (open vs closed architecture) fails to appreciate how market share is won or loss. If an open architecture were so wonderful then MS and Apple would be out of business and we'd all be using Linux machines.

You also have to look at the installed base, rate of growth, access to market and a hundred other things. Can you go into an upscale shopping mall and walk into an android store and buy a phone or get help when there is a problem? Can you plug your android phone into the dock connector supplied with hundreds of iPhone accessories? Can you talk on the phone and use your web browser and GPS at the same time?

I'm willing to entertain vigorous arguments for or against any product, I'd just like to see them thought out better than this.

Why Research in Motion Is a Takeover Target

I don't see RIM taking off. They'll probably maintain their position or slowly lose share while remaining profitable. They just don't have the software or technology to keep up with expansion outside of their core business (email).

I don't see RIMM as a take over target. Sure, they will have a steady cash stream, but it is a long shot that they will grow rapidly.

I think Palm is a better take over target than RIMM. It takes much less cash and you get a better OS. The downside is that there are fewer customers so again, it is a risk as to whether they will grow rapidly.

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

Android will have its place but it does not compete directly with the iPhone. My guess is that a couple years down the line Android phones will largely supplant Nokia phones in the low end, low margin market. RIM will survive but lose share. The iPhone will own the high end, high margin business. Watch for Nokia to drop Symbian OS and adopt Android on some phones.

I think the Android world will be too chaotic to develop much in the way of a useful App Store.

Research in Motion: Reports of Sales Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

It seems to me that RIMM is OK for a while but I'm skeptical of their long term prospects. They have good cash flow from current customers and they are giving phones away to try to lure new customers.

You get a Blackberry because your company forces you to carry one. You get an iPhone (or Pre or other) because you want one.

The competitors are not sitting still. RIMM has not caught up with the current competition. What will happen to them when someone else starts making inroads into the business market?

iPhone Keeps Research in Motion on Its Toes

RIMM is a one trick pony trying to learn new tricks. Very tough. They bought some market share this spring with the two-for-one give away. That can't last. The thing about Apple is that all of its products are interrelated so using an iPhone complements using an Apple laptop. Will RIMM develop a world class OS, set of iLife and iWork applications and a line of laptops in the next six months or so? Doubt it.

Steve Jobs' Return: What Does It Mean for Apple and RIM Stock?

Steve's importance at Apple is often exaggerated, IMHO. Whether he is involved in some day-to-day decisions is not key. I think Steve brings two powerful things to Apple.

First, he brings in the best people he can find for the job. I'm constantly amazed at the number of managers who seem intimidated by hiring smart people.

Second, he defines the long term personality of the company. He sets the goals and the goals are centered on making great products. Profits are important and stock price is important but it seems that Steve feels that if you make an over-the-top great product then profits and stock price rises will follow.

This is opposed to companies like GM that had "the system". GM was run by accountants who managed by looking at the money. Look where it got them. I've run across companies like this where the accountants make too many management decisions. This kills any bold decisions. Everything becomes safe and moderate. This might be OK if you are making bubble wrap or cardboard boxes but is the kiss of death for a company like Apple.

As an investor in Apple I'm not worried if Steve is not involved day-to-day. If Steve comes in once a quarter and helps with a course correction that would be enough.

Finally, I don't think he has to train a successor. I do think he should try to codify his main ideas. Much as Jack Welch wrote books on management style Steve should try to do this for Apple. That would give management some philosophy to turn to when they need to make decisions.

The Palm Pre's Coming Out Party

The Pre syncs with iTunes by mimicking an Apple product. They will either get sued for this or Apple will modify their code to break this or both. I'm skeptical Palm can do well enough. They are entering a maturing market and they are betting the company on one product. Apple will soon release their third generation phone, RIMM has also worked through multiple generations. RIMM has much of corporate America in its corner. Apple has over 200 retail stores across the US, each with a genius bar where customers can get service and free help. RIMM and Apple have deep pockets. Palm is running on fumes. If there is any trouble with this release Palm could go under.

Wild prediction: early next year Palm is acquired by beleaguered Dell as it searches for a way to make money.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

What if an asteroid falls on Palm headquarters? Would that improve Nokia sales? What if three comets hit the earth simultaneously and land on Palm, RIMM and Nokia headquarters? Would that be good for Apple? What if, what if, what if. Sheesh.

By talking about Apple selling as a fad or trend you display your lack of understanding of this market. You can like Apple or not but at least understand their strengths and weaknesses properly. The same goes for RIMM and Nokia and Android.

Personally, I think Pre is in an extremely difficult position. Pre might be a good phone. The problem is it has to be an extraordinarily good phone to overcome the lead established by RIMM and Apple. If they had come out with this three years ago they would have walked away with the market. Now they are an also ran.

Yes, they can quickly get some share from the technically oriented people who follow this market, but it doesn't sound like Pre will add a must have feature not offered by RIMM or Apple. This is not a knock on Palm, it is just how it is.

I recall having this discussion with a broker promoting the stock of a company pushing a technology to compete with hard disk drives. My point was that it would have to be hugely faster/cheaper/bigger than hard drives in order to gain a foothold. Just like magnetic bubble memory before that. Bubble memory was interesting but could never develop fast enough to catch up to hard drives so they ran out of development money before the hard drive developers ran out of money. Apple has almost $30B in reserves. If they decide there is something missing from the iPhone that is needed to keep market share you better believe it will appear very quickly.

I think Palm will make a short term splash then disappear from the headlines. Apple/RIMM will capture most of the headlines. What is Palm going to do? Build up several hundred stores in malls across the US where trained technicians can help people with questions? Build a huge on line music and video store like iTMS? Get thousands of developers to write tens of thousands of apps for the Pre? Develop a simple way for developers to get paid for developing apps? Find a way for the Pre to synchronize with your iTunes collection on your computer? Somehow get the whole country talking about Palm so that when they think touchscreen phone they think Pre and not iPhone?

Perhaps I don't know enough about Pre (mea culpa), but I think they should have gone after a specific niche rather than the general market or in addition to the general market. For example, they might have worked out a scheme to develop the digital hospital. EMTs in the ambulance could forward diagnostic information to the hospital. Doctors and nurses and other techs would receive this on their phones. Each would begin the necessary preparations and would send updates about their progress to the others. Once the patient arrives information about medications, treatments and diet would skip from phone to phone so everyone is always up to date. For all I know something like this exists. But if Palm did something like this, perhaps in another field, they'd have a secure toe-hold from which to expand. As it is they seem very exposed to intense competition.

Apple: Three Battles Won, Nicely Positioned for the Fourth

If you look at the distribution of Walmart stores you see they tend to be where Apple stores are not. Selling through Walmart is a way to reach more customers without cannibalizing sales at Apple stores.

On top of Apple posting a great quarter, they are preparing for a great year of product releases.

First comes new iPhone hardware and software, then comes Snow Leopard, then comes the mystery touch screen device, then at the end of the year we might see new laptops when Intel updates their CPU line. All in all a busy year.

Apple's New iPhone Could Crash Palm's Pre Release Party

Palm is in a very difficult position. Two years ago would have been a great time to bring out the Pre. If it was just a matter of the product itself they might have a chance. Kind of like comparing different burgers. You make a better tasting burger and people will buy it. With smart phones there is a whole ecosystem of developers, apps, accessories (speakers, headphones, cases), online music store, app store. Now Apple has over 30 million customers for the iPhone and iPod touch. That is a huge critical mass that is a customer draw in itself. If you are an iPhone user and you have some peripherals and some apps and some songs from iTunes what incentive do you have to switch to a Pre? The Pre need not be just a little better, it has to be hugely better right out of the gate to draw a significant fraction of existing customers away from their phones. The one thing Palm has going for them is that the iPhone is exclusive with ATT.

RIMM Downgraded, Shares Slide

Maybe because it is a one trick pony relying on just one business. Right now businesses are laying people off, not hiring. What motivation do they have to buy new phones? More likely they are canceling contracts. My guess is they will suffer till the employment picture changes.

RIMM, Verizon Fire Salvo in Smartphone War

I think RIMM is in for a rough ride. BB is primarily a business device. Now businesses are laying of hundreds of thousands of people a month. Not only is the target market shrinking but the phones of the unfortunates laid off are passed on to others or sold. A quick check just revealed 75,500 hits for BB on ebay. Surely some of those are for accessories, but it sill amounts to a lot of second hand phones for sale.

Probably in June Apple will release a new phone with even more cool features making it even harder for RIMM to catch up. Tough spot. They've got about two months or so till the buzz for the new iPhone hits the media.

Is Apple the Beacon of Light In This Dreary Recession?

Apple is a difficult call because it is not a commodity like Dell. In the past couple years Apple came out with two game changers; the iPhone and the iPhone Apps Store. Looking forward two years Apple could do nothing dramatically new (just upgrades) or they may come out with a new game changer or two. How do you value that?

Certainly there is a lot of upside potential. Apple is just breaking 10% market share so there is a lot of room to grow even in a flat market. Apple has no debt and huge pile of cash and a history of aggressive innovation during recessions.

AAPL Smartphone Shows the Way to Competitors

It is a complex issue. Without question Apple has the better product and, as pointed out above, has the depth of engineering and design IP to keep turning out new products for the foreseeable future.

Yes competitors can try to copy some features but that is like driving by looking in the rear view mirror. Your future products are determined by what Apple brought out last quarter.

The one fly in the ointment could be the "good enough" effect. That is where people admit you have by far the better product but the cheaper, poorer one is "good enough" for them. As closely as Apple follows their customers I doubt this will catch them by surprise.

An Especially Inauspicious Moment in Time for RIM

I'm a novice regarding RIMM, but I'm skeptical that they can continue to grow. It seems to me that they are a niche player, if a rather large niche. They supported people who absolutely had to have instantaneous communication wherever they were. I wonder how many of those people will be left as Wall Street goes through a wrenching change? On the flip side RIMM is facing considerable competition from several directions in their effort to enter the consumer market. It might turn out OK for them but I don't see it. Even if they can keep market share it will likely be at the cost of lower prices. Either way profits go down.