Retirement In A World Without Social Security [View article]
One other issue with projecting dividend stocks over 30 years is the need to try and avoid failures of dividend payers. If I looked back to the start of my career I might have invested in blue chip stocks like GM, Pan Am, US Steel, Kodak, Xerox, etc. The hard part is deciding when to bail out. One note on SS: One of the significant benefits of the SS arrangement is the survivor bias. It requires much less investment to cover a group if each person does not need to fund a worst-case retirement to age 95, but only to an average lifetime of 78 or so. While Wall Street loves individual retirement accounts because it maximizes investment assets, it puts a strain on the participants who need to allocate much more of their income to savings. As noted, the availability of SS in the future will be determined politically, not by the financials.
Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk? [View article]
"A nonbinding letter of intent" just sounds so-- nonbinding. My experience with this sort of thing is that it opens the negotiation and allows due diligence to proceed.
Interesting article. I think installation costs should be assumed to be nearly constant as the price of PV cells decrease. Except for large industrial installations, local /residential installations will not benefit much from higher volume. While many have argued that higher costs for oil and gas will (and have) opened up new sources, it certainly has been at higher and higher prices. This will naturally make other sources like PV more cost effective. I wonder if a significant part of the storage problem could be solved by recharging EVs while the sun shines. There would stilll have to be a significant source of base load, either natural gas, coal or nuclear.
Yeah, I remember the furor a few years ago about the laptops catching fire. The world of computers was going to end... Funny, I don't hear about much these days except the millions of Li battery-powered computers being sold every day. As an old engineer, I'm well familiar with problems in new technology- when confronted with a design problem, the first thing I always had to do was to stop everyone from running around crying "the sky is falling!". Then, take the time to understand the problem and come up with a solution. It takes some time, but there's usually a fix. I'm astounded at all the fuss over the Boeing batteries- you'd think they were going to fall out of the sky if the battery went dead. With all the new technology in the 787 I'm amazed it's gone as well as it has. And I'm sure that they'll get the problem fixed. I haven't looked at the statistics, but I'd bet you're a lot more likely to get killed by a lightning strike than a lithium battery fire.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
CDs are just another form of deposit. They are insured by the FDIC up to the limit, just like any other savings account. And not insured, just like any other account, if over the FDIC limit. We've found that by using several Credit Unions and differing types of bank accounts you can insure a million or so.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
Since the Cyprus banks have assets equal to about 8 times the GDP of Cyprus, I don't think it's the small businesses deposits making up most of the taxes. Or, they are some of the most profitable small businesses in the world.
Don't Let One Bad Apple Spoil The Whole Darn Bunch [View article]
I own some Apple, and went into it with my eyes open (but at the time the endlessly rising real estate values were going to cover all the issues)... now I'm waiting to see if that ever happens. The basic Apple concept isn't bad- they use the loads of cash that Lerner raises to buy properties using little or no leverage- so there should be little risk of eventually recovering the value of the real estate. But what is buried in the fine print is the sales load of 10% for Lerner, plus another 4-5% for the developer, plus a big cut on the cash out for the developer. And that doesn't include the fees, all raked off by entities related to the developer. I think I'll make money eventually... In another year my REIT may go cash flow positive. But Lerner's usual customer is a retired grandma who attended the free luncheon and met the nice broker.... obviously all they see is that 7-8% and some papers to sign. I've been astounded at the amount of money Lerner can raise with this customer pool.
While gas prices are clearly influenced by the value of the dollar, one data point does not make an inflation number. I've gone back to my 10 years of retirement budget to see what I could learn. First, food and energy make up a small part of my expenditures-about 15%. I've got little exposure to increasing real estate costs (except taxes) and a lot of exposure to medical costs. When I laid out my retirement budget, I allocated increase rates to each expense category, and extended the costs out 30 years. It averaged out to about a 4% increase rate, varying from 2% for clothing to 8% for medical. After 10 years, my expenditures are tracking almost exactly that 4% increase. Yes, energy costs have outrun the budget, but other costs (stuff from China) have offset that. As recommended, I've invested in the oil majors, and that has offset all of the excess energy expenditures. However, my wife still won't buy my argument that we'll reduce our inflationary rate by buying a large-screen TV every year.
Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered [View article]
Umm- maybe you should explain to Apple that they are supposed to pass their reduced costs on to the consumer. Corporations are expected to maximize profits, and they do that by increasing prices faster than costs. It's only the heavy hand of government that has reduced some of the most egregious monopolies that existed in the 19th century, and upon which were built the greatest fortunes ever.
The Big Gaping Hole In The Employment Report And Fed Folly [View article]
Dave- you've obviously started with a conclusion and tried to rationalize it. I suggest you start with facts as best you can discern them and then draw conclusions. Medical spending will be driven by the aging of the population and the increasing sophistication of medical. Since there has been little effort to rein in costs, most of the proposed plans simply vary who will be paying for medical care (i.e. private vs government). As far as medical employment goes, I judge it will continue to increase. Educational spending is, I believe, mostly driven by local schools, and is unrelated to student loans. Not to minimize the potential for serious problems with student loans, but employment will be driven by population trends since this work cannot easily be outsourced or computerized. With the birth rate down, there may be an argument that employment will slow over the long term, but I think the current boom is driven more by baby boomer retirements.
Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
I always find it laughable that we boomers, having been cut off from company pensions and forced to save for our own retirement, are now accused of being the wealthy old guys. I almost am impressed with the size of my 401 until I remember that it is providing about one-quarter of my final year's pay.
Fiscal Cliff Negotiation Failure Could Be The Best Option [View article]
I think you've got a good point there, Howard. It seems to me that many of the economic remedies proposed (and implemented) do not take into account the realities of the global economy. The stimulus doesn't work well because much of the spending is drained overseas, just as much of the corporate profits don't stimulate because they are retained overseas. All the low rates don't matter to us when much of the corporate investment is outside the US.
I don't think we have a problem with technology- just look at Apple as an example. While some big companies whine about the lack of tech-trained people, that's mostly about trying to get a supply surplus so that engineers are cheap. Apple and Google have the pick of the litter, and pay accordingly. You really don't need hoards of geniuses to create outstanding products. Maybe hoards to set up for manufacturing, but most of that is done overseas now. The average educational results of the US are pulled down by many unmotivated and ill-educated students, who then spend a lifetime working minimum wage jobs (at best).
Retirement In A World Without Social Security [View article]
One note on SS: One of the significant benefits of the SS arrangement is the survivor bias. It requires much less investment to cover a group if each person does not need to fund a worst-case retirement to age 95, but only to an average lifetime of 78 or so. While Wall Street loves individual retirement accounts because it maximizes investment assets, it puts a strain on the participants who need to allocate much more of their income to savings.
As noted, the availability of SS in the future will be determined politically, not by the financials.
Has Premier Exhibitions' Titanic Sale Sunk? [View article]
Trends In The Cost Of Energy [View article]
While many have argued that higher costs for oil and gas will (and have) opened up new sources, it certainly has been at higher and higher prices. This will naturally make other sources like PV more cost effective.
I wonder if a significant part of the storage problem could be solved by recharging EVs while the sun shines. There would stilll have to be a significant source of base load, either natural gas, coal or nuclear.
Are EV Dreams Going Up In Smoke? [View article]
As an old engineer, I'm well familiar with problems in new technology- when confronted with a design problem, the first thing I always had to do was to stop everyone from running around crying "the sky is falling!". Then, take the time to understand the problem and come up with a solution. It takes some time, but there's usually a fix. I'm astounded at all the fuss over the Boeing batteries- you'd think they were going to fall out of the sky if the battery went dead. With all the new technology in the 787 I'm amazed it's gone as well as it has. And I'm sure that they'll get the problem fixed.
I haven't looked at the statistics, but I'd bet you're a lot more likely to get killed by a lightning strike than a lithium battery fire.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
Don't Let One Bad Apple Spoil The Whole Darn Bunch [View article]
The basic Apple concept isn't bad- they use the loads of cash that Lerner raises to buy properties using little or no leverage- so there should be little risk of eventually recovering the value of the real estate.
But what is buried in the fine print is the sales load of 10% for Lerner, plus another 4-5% for the developer, plus a big cut on the cash out for the developer. And that doesn't include the fees, all raked off by entities related to the developer.
I think I'll make money eventually... In another year my REIT may go cash flow positive.
But Lerner's usual customer is a retired grandma who attended the free luncheon and met the nice broker.... obviously all they see is that 7-8% and some papers to sign. I've been astounded at the amount of money Lerner can raise with this customer pool.
Bernanke's Kryptonite [View article]
As recommended, I've invested in the oil majors, and that has offset all of the excess energy expenditures.
However, my wife still won't buy my argument that we'll reduce our inflationary rate by buying a large-screen TV every year.
Homebuilding At The Crossroads Of Changing Demographics [View article]
Deep Dive: Financial Repression Reconsidered [View article]
Corporations are expected to maximize profits, and they do that by increasing prices faster than costs. It's only the heavy hand of government that has reduced some of the most egregious monopolies that existed in the 19th century, and upon which were built the greatest fortunes ever.
The Big Gaping Hole In The Employment Report And Fed Folly [View article]
Medical spending will be driven by the aging of the population and the increasing sophistication of medical. Since there has been little effort to rein in costs, most of the proposed plans simply vary who will be paying for medical care (i.e. private vs government). As far as medical employment goes, I judge it will continue to increase.
Educational spending is, I believe, mostly driven by local schools, and is unrelated to student loans. Not to minimize the potential for serious problems with student loans, but employment will be driven by population trends since this work cannot easily be outsourced or computerized. With the birth rate down, there may be an argument that employment will slow over the long term, but I think the current boom is driven more by baby boomer retirements.
Fiscal cliff negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hit a major snag after Republicans demand use of the "chained CPI" method for calculating entitlement benefits - which would result in lower payments for Social Security beneficiaries. Pres. Obama backed the provision previously, but Democrats now object to including it as part of a scaled-down deal. Updated 5:51 p.m.: The Senate won't vote tonight and will reconvene at 11 a.m. tomorrow, Reid says. [View news story]
Fiscal Cliff Negotiation Failure Could Be The Best Option [View article]
3 Under-Appreciated GDP Facts [View article]
The average educational results of the US are pulled down by many unmotivated and ill-educated students, who then spend a lifetime working minimum wage jobs (at best).