Alpha&Omega

How Do the S&P and Gold Correlate?

Michael:

Thanks for your willingness to post items of interest. I would imagine most individual investors like myself would like to see these short and longer time horizons (do these daily / weekly choppy waters saccumulate into a different picture over time). I would like to see correlation of SPY beyond gold-only commodities to general commodity ETFs (I like DBC, GCC, and LSC) as well as select commodity-oriented national currencies (BZF, FXC). I have often wondered if MLP pipelines (PAA, KMP) as commodity carriers are correlated or uncorrelated, so that might be interesting. Thank you.

New ETF Offers Access to Diverse Emerging Market Currencies

Nice article. How do all of the ETFs you listed pay the money market yields - on a quarterly, daily etc. It would seem daily would be optimal if suddenly taken out of position with the trailing stop or if held for only shorter periods?

ETF Trends’ Guide to Currency ETFs

Thanks Tom. I think you are right - technicals are superiorand better validated. The season does give a theme and the technicals can fine-tune or correct. Seasonality aside, there are times to take profits and wait for re-entry and use of the ETFs you mentioned might have another dimension.

I am continuing to give thought to your article and started to test a couple of hypotheses. To give a different example, I wonder if I am better served parking gains from foreign stocks in the related currency ETF to mitigate the exchange issues of the falling dollar (over time of course) and the higher interest rate. For example, in addition to the example I gave, I would be better off taking gains from POT (Candadian co) and putting in FXC (Canadian ETF) until I am ready to invest in POT again versus keeping in US cash. I have difficulty testing this hypothesis since these ETFs seem to have come to market at a time when the dollar was doing well versus these currencies. It wold seem that even if exchange neutral, the interest on the money market would be higher. Is there a way to test / back-test these ideas?

ETF Trends’ Guide to Currency ETFs

Tom - this is a sensible and well-written article. Newbies like me thank you for your thoughtful writing.

I am wondering if you feel your research would support an approach I am considering. I am not an active trader but I do like to move in and out of some foreign stocks in what some would describe as a seasonal approach but basically it is old fashioned buy low and sell high. For example, with Petrobras, I enter at the low and sell high then park gains is cash as I wait for the next low. Would there be an advantage to parking in Brazilian currency instead of US cash even if the holding period were a matter of 6 months or so? In this way, I would move out of PBR and into BZF (instead of cash) and then back into PBR from BZF if I found a new entry low? You may have other reader newbies to these currency concepts like me? Thanks,

Use Currencies, Commodities to Hedge Inflation

Nice article. Are you suggesting we take a gradual position / accumulation of shares of FCA, FXA, etc over time? How much of our portfolio would you suggest spread among the various investments to give adequate protection? As a commodity rich country would you also consider Brazilian currency or just Canada, Australia and China? Are you suggesting a buy and hold approach here. In other words, I am going to buy some FCA over time and just hold onto these shares indefinitely or do you have only a short-term time horizon in mind?

Will Natural Gas Be the Next to Rally?

Excellent article BeSpoke! I have two questions from a very tiny investor trying to apply this type of research:

1. If you were going to take advantage of these quarterly observations, it would seen you could by options in either commodity or producers (or perhaps even midstream) in Q1 for expiration in Q3?

2. Have you done the same analysis on eitehr crude oil or gasoline that you could share?

The Foundations of the Current Crisis: Don't Shoot the Messenger

Thanks you for the courage to write the article and respond to the various comments. I would help me and other readers to get your perspective on how the approach you are taking is in any way anti-American? I do not feel that avoiding US stocks and investing in TBT, DXO, UGL is anti-American. Specifically can you outline for your readers how buying TBT is Anti-American or in any way potentially hurts Americans or the USA? Perhaps if you can articulate a case that buying TBT is not harmful to America but rather sends a message that we find the current administration to be anti-American in its practices and creating an anti-business / anti-investor environment. If this resonates with your readers, we can join your approach and perhaps we can "vote" with our investments since our voting block seems to have very few other means to express ourselves?

Disney Shares Fully Valued; Time to Sell

I like your analysis on several articles including this one. I am following and also accessed your website. Please continue o help individual investors like me learn how to invest/trade in these sideways markets. I think most investors like myself have been hurt by the Buy&hold strategy and need new ways of approaching the market over the foreseeable future.

Understanding the TED Spread

Is there a site online that would provide the TED spread for a given period of time - or even real time, or must this be manually calculated? If calculated, how would you suggest doing so?