James Biringer

There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market

I'm with Bill here. One more good hard pull and then I'll get real interested in equities. In the meantime, a good allocation to cash and bonds ain't a bad place to be. This isn't over, in my opinion.

In answer to this post,

Makes sense. But how would you determine when the credit contraction is over, other than waiting 6 months or so and looking at the historical numbers, and be able to say, "See? It ended THERE!"

David, here's a link I happened upon from another blogger on seeking apha.

markit.com

If you browse the site a litttle you'll find some of these bond funds that are selling for 60 cents on the dollar in black and white. Frankly, I was looking for the same thing, namely a site where I could actually see some of these selling for fire sale prices.

There's probably a few more of these out there, but this is the first one I found so far. I stop in every couple weeks and may download some of the prices into a spreadsheet to keep track of the pricing looking for a bottom or some positivity.

From this laymen's perspective, I would think that when most of these bonds are selling for better than 90 cents on the dollar we should be out of the woods so to speak, in the credit markets.

Global P/E Ratios: How the U.S. Stacks Up

Good job Bespoke, as usual. Also, George, excellent comment. I wondered the same thing. As far as discrepancies between different data sources, if they're pretty close, the discrepancy would be irrelevant, imho.

Jimmy

Berkshire Hathaway Appears Undervalued

Excellent article. I like that you went at that a couple different directions. Good job.

<<<<"The Party's over." >>>>
UPOD

The Anatomy of a Bear Market

Good article, Eben. Here's a blurb I sent out kinda along the same thoughts you had. I'm no expert or guru, but I think I'm smart enough to think for myself and make my own decisions.


>>>>
Dear Investors,

Maybe it's me, but I got a nagging thought
rolling around in my head the last few months.
And I heard a quick mention of a similar thought
on Fast Money tonight.

Let me see if I got this right. I'll try my best to put
my thoughts into some type of cohesive essay.


----------------------...


The investment banks are marking down drastically
their assets in the CDO and CMO funds they put together.
Investors bought into these vehicles through bonds and
bond funds made up of all these SIV's.

Alright, let's see now. I got a slice of a bond fund made
up of a mix of prime, alt a, and subprime mortgages.
There's all kinds of hullabaloo going around, and I have
to mark to market my bond fund CMO's.

Wait a minute. There's no market for my bond fund of CMO's
because of a high level of fear by investors. Shoot. I have to
market to a market that barely exists at this point. Alright.
I mark to market my fund of CMO's and find I'm 70% down
right now. This asset, according to the market is worth 70%
less than what it was worth last year, or whenever.

But...is it really worth 70% less?? I would argue no. Because,
if I ride this out, that same market, imho, will give me true value
in a year or two. And not for nuthin', true value, not market value,
is the real worth of the asset I'm holding right now.

For instance, if I put a real negative number on my CMO, I'd have
to say that 20% of my mortgages in the CMO are non performing.
But the market is marking down my bond fund of CMO's by 70%.
And another thing, those NPA's are still worth something. This is
real estate. Okay, let's say it's devalued by, I don't know, 20%
for pete's sake. Well 20% ain't 70%. That's a lot different.

I know, to unscramble the NPA's out of the bond fund of CMO's is
gonna bear some cost for admin, foreclosure, and general nuisance
fees.

But 70%??

I'm not seeing it.


----------------------...


I guess what I'm saying is some of this is getting overblown
in my book. Could be wrong. But I think, that at the margin,
there's definately two sides to this plug nickel. If that makes
any sense.



Thank You,
James Biringer
Co - Moderator - Intelligent Investors Group
finance.groups.yahoo.c.../
Owner - Verizon401k Newsgroup
finance.groups.yahoo.c.../

The opinions expressed in this email are
those of James Biringer. They are not
intended to be recommendations of any
security, only his opinion. As always,
investors should do their own
due diligence and research, and invest with
caution. James Biringer reserves the
right to change orders at the last minute,
cancel the order entirely, and add orders
not advanced to the group, due to time
constraints and changing market conditions.

China's Inflation Hits American Price Tags

Met up with a guy out of Singapore visiting a company. He echoed your theisis. You're right on the money. The inflation payoff, in foreign labor is almost played. Certainly in China, it's played. Expect a revert to the norm as far as manufactured goods is concerned.

Full Steam Ahead For iShares REITs ETF

Just reset my 401k contributions to equities, agg equities, and my reit.
If it ain't time, then it's damn near it. And really, that's good enough.

Why Tuesday's Surprise Rate Cut Won't Cut It

I’ve been telling the Fed to cut rates since last summer so if you’re one of my 4 long-term readers, this is not new to you.

Thanks a lot, I got three. :)

Rolling the Dice on Downtrodden Homebuilder Hovnanian

Stephen,

I'm leaning the same way. I picked a long call on FMD for Jan. 2009. I like the limited down side of this spec play. And if it
things do pan out, the upside could off the chart.

I'm also looking at HOV for a long option play, most likely the Jan 2010 call option. As far out as I can go.

I'm also looking at MER for a long call option. I'm liking MER much
better with John Thaine at the helm. I'll probably wait on this a
little while longer.

I think, if you're gonna speculate on some of these downtrodden
tickers, an option is the way to play it. At least your downside
is finite.

James Biringer

Why is GM's Wagoner Back on the Hot Seat?

I wouldn't short GM until you test drive a G6. Then decide
on this car companie's long term prospects. Just bought one for
the wife. What a beautiful car. I'll be doubling up on my GM position
when I see a soft bottom.

Portfolio Recovery Associates: The Shorts Will Be Proven Wrong

Not a bad day for PRAA. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but it looks interesting.

Last Trade: 44.18
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.93 (2.06%)

Outperformed the market today.
If this is finding a bottom somewhere here, then I may pull the trigger.

James Biringer

Leveraged ETFs Well Worth the Risk

Jason,

I like your thinking. That's not a bad way to go, especially if you
lighten up a little and book some profits in periods like we're in now,
and buy a little during negative volatility.

Good Job,
Jimmy

Leveraged ETFs Well Worth the Risk

Jason,

I like your thinking. That's not a bad way to go, especially if you
lighten up a little and book some profits in periods like we're in now,
and buy a little during negative volatility.

Good Job,
Jimmy

Headed For a Normal 20-30% Correction

Roger,

Good comments, pays to be a little cautious right now, regardless of
timelines. Thank God somebody else sees risk right now, I thought
I was the only one there for awhile.

James Biringer

Telecom Meets Web 2.0 - Who Wins?

Simply put, VOIP is only as good as the network it travels over. Seidenburg understands this, which would be why they're in the process of installing the best network this country has ever seen. Hardwired or otherwise. I'm talking, of course, about Fios, their FTTP network. Expensive? Yes. King of the hill in
the long run? No doubt.

Disclosure: author is long VZ via their 401k company match.

James Biringer
Verizon FTTP fiber splicer

How Verizon's FiOS Will Change the Face of the Telecom Industry

Bill,

You're right on the money. This network is gonna boggle mind of the average American in the years to come. The IT savvy of the population(read "young people"), will celebrate this. I could go into many different points from your article, which I agree with, but will touch on one point you may have left out.

Being, that there is a demux card at the side of the house, thus forming a "moat" between the WAN or network, and the house wiring, how long is it gonna be till Verizon rolls out a direct connect option between their DVR and the homeowner's PC? That would circumvent Apple's big idea of RF'ing data
between these two points.

If I were competing with Verizon, I would be worried now, and downright scared in 3 years or so.

James Biringer
Verizon Fiber Splicer presently doing the buildout
Owner - Yahoo! newsgroup - "Verizon 401k"