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Smarty_Pants

Smarty_Pants
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  • It's Too Late for Tax Cuts, Now's the Time To Increase Government Spending [View article]
    Ultimate solution is the complete free market. Dismantle entire government regulatory system and let people with money of their own decide what to invest in/purchase/save for. Market forces will channel savings to most cost effective use of the capital over time.

    Plus all those bureaucrats would have to go find REAL jobs and do something useful for a change instead of make our lives miserable through over-regulation and taxation.

    Go Ron Paul!!
    Oct 10 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Is Not a Strategy [View article]
    One day the bottom will happen. A short rally will ensue and then prices will fall back down to retest the lows again. At that point the rally will resume. That's the point to start buying. There's time to spare yet.

    Personally I was in cash in Nov 2007, bought QID shortly after and got out after AIG was assimilated as the uncertainty of the gov't changing the rules was too risky for my tastes.

    I wish now I'd stayed after the seeing past two weeks. I left a lot of $ on the table, but you can't be perfect. I'm happy to be far ahead for the year and sitting mostly in cash. I can wait for the bottom. No hurry.

    I don't have to get in exactly AT the bottom. I'd rather wait until I know the trend has reversed to the upside and avoid taking an unecessary loss.
    Oct 10 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing the Government Action Options [View article]
    The third unspoken option is for the government to simply let the insolvent banks fail and go bankrupt like a REAL free market. This would punish those who deserve it most and not everyone else.

    Of course with only weeks to the election allowing banks to fail is not an option open for discussion. The Nanny State will save us from ourselves, whether we want it or not. It's for our own good. Really. Trust them on that.
    Oct 10 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Markets Get Even Scarier [View article]
    If IBM bond yields are such a screaming deal then buy some. Take advantage of that big spread. Lock in an oversized yield before it vanishes. What's stopping you? Credit concerns? This is Big Blue we're talking about. Rock solid. No brainer.

    Oh, and as Goldcorp used to say on their annual reports:

    Gold IS Money.
    Oct 10 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money? [View article]
    Gold has recently had a pretty good rally from 750 up to a bit over 900 where it has been struggling to break out over the 950 mark. It's been a month since the lows.

    A retracement was due but it's probable that after a bit of a drop to gather itself it will resume the uptrend and challenge the 1000 mark again. Give it a few weeks to re-organize and settle down.

    I managed to hedge my GLD calls by selling some higher strike calls and locking in most of my profits mid-morning today. Several hours later GLD started dropping. I was lucky. Even if GLD goes to zero I will come out ahead now so I'm just waiting for a good spot to get long again.

    Mostly I didn't want to go into the weekend long gold with the G-7 meeting going on. No telling what they're going to do or how it will impact gold prices. Expect anything.

    When it appears the uptrend is resuming I will buy those hedge calls back (at a profit I hope) and ride the original calls further up with the rally.

    Have patience. The rally will resume eventually.
    Oct 10 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading the S&P 500's Crashing Waves [View article]
    Tuesday is the 10th of 12 full moons this year. Expect that to influence things too.

    "Combine Elliot Waves with full moons and you can't lose."

    Very famous saying, or at least it ought to be.

    Seriously, Elliot Waves are a good framework for placing yourself in the big picture market-behavior-wise. I just added the full moon stuff to throw the masses off the trail. ;-)
    Oct 10 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Triggers Sharp Volatility in Stocks [View article]
    The trend is down. Expect more of the same until it stops.
    Oct 10 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money? [View article]
    "Jim Rogers ... - Where Is He Putting His Money?"

    He took his family and all his money and moved it to Singapore.

    Forbes Jan 7, 2008

    "In fact, the 65-year-old former investment partner of George Soros and globe-circling author of Investment Biker is such a believer in the capitalist momentum of the People's Republic that he recently agreed to sell his beloved home and relocate full-time to Singapore - not quite Shanghai, but close enough to the action. It's something he's been considering at least since 2004"

    "In my view, the U.S. economy is in recession. I know the government says we're not. But as I look around, we know that automobiles are in worse than recession. The same thing is true for homebuilders. Much of the financial sector is in worse than recession. So many parts of America are in worse than recession, and yet the government says we're not in a recession. I don't know what's so strong that it's offsetting these major weaknesses in the American economy. I just assume that the government is lying."

    "I am still short Citigroup. I'm still short Fannie Mae. I'm still short homebuilders. And I just increased my short positions on the investment banks last week, because that's where the excesses have been in the U.S. economy. There have not been excesses in sugar farming in the past 30 years. There have not been excesses in silver mining. The excesses have been on Wall Street. That's why I'm shorting Wall Street. You see 29-year-old kids making $10 million or $20 million a year and thinking, "This is the way the world is. This is normal." Well, I don't think it's normal."

    He said all this back in January 2008. I guess maybe Jim Rogers might know a thing or two.
    Oct 10 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Too Late for Tax Cuts, Now's the Time To Increase Government Spending [View article]
    Consumer spending used to be over 90% of all spending, now it's only 70% because the government took that extra 20% from the consumer to fritter away on pork and perks for themselves.

    If government spending is going to solve all our problems, why not just give ALL our money to the government and let them spend it to take care of us?

    It worked great in the USSR, right?


    Oct 10 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Only Physical Asset That Isn't Deflating [View article]
    Aside from sorgmot's rosy summary of the near term, trying to predict the bottom of the current downdraft will most likely cost money.

    Until it reaches zero the market can always keep going down. Just because VIX has never been as high as 70 before doesn't mean it can't go to 100, or 200, now.
    Oct 10 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who We Should Blame for This Crisis [View article]
    Don't forget changes to tax law that allowed writeoffs on real-estate interest but not other interest.

    Ran up a big credit card balance? Not to worry, just take out a home equity loan to pay it off. Lower interest rates and it's tax deductible.

    So the standard lifestyle became "pile as much debt on your inflated house value as you possibly can, then run up the credit card again".

    Wooo Hoooo! Ain't that fun?

    Until ....
    Oct 10 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Bond Outlook: Bursting of the Treasury Security Bubble? (Update) [View article]
    "Trying to make a quick buck what got us into this mess"

    Not quite.

    It was borrowing a ton of money with little or no collateral trying to make a quick buck that got us into this mess.

    I speculate with money I wholly own and which I don't have an immediate need for. If I lose it I will still be able to make ends meet and continue saving from my income.

    Banks borrowed trillions to speculate and earn billions. When the losses set in they wound up owing trillions and had nothing left to pay off with.

    There's a big difference.
    Oct 10 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Act Defensively, But Not from Fear [View article]
    Sensible approach. Nobody said you have to capture ALL the possible gains.

    Rule 1) Avoid taking big losses.
    Rule 2) Get the biggest gains you can without risking a violation of Rule 1)

    I always have to chuckle when people write articles showing how much better you do 'staying the course' than trying to 'time' the market.

    You know, the "If you missed the 10 biggest gaining days your returns sucked" crowd. What they always overlook in their analyses is what would have happened if you missed the 10 biggest losing days instead.

    Anyone who has really studied the market can improve their chances of better returns by avoiding large market drops. Only problem is it takes a bit of work. There isn't some 'magical' indicator to tell you everything you need to know. There's a lot of experience involved, but it can help.
    Oct 10 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unwinding of the Moral Hazard Trade [View article]
    You forgot to mention that WaMu bond holders were sacrificed in order to scare Congress into passing the bailout bill.

    Even WaMu's corporate officers were taken by surprise at the FDIC shutdown and immediate fire-sale of assets. I suspect that the bank could have survived until the bailout was passed and continued operations indefinitely beyond that point.

    Of course, as with any government action, the unintended consequence has been a complete lack of trust on the part of investors who have now seen that the government will leave them out in the cold if it suits their agenda.

    Small wonder that it's proving difficult to get anyone to 'invest' in anything until the bailout details are ironed out and stabilized. The perceived government intervention risk is far too high.
    Oct 10 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2008 Price Targets Higher Than Mt. Everest [View article]
    But.. .. .. .. Markets always go up, right?
    Oct 10 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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