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Smarty_Pants

Smarty_Pants
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  • The Swiss National Bank's Move And What It Means For Gold Investors [View article]
    "And gold just got a lot cheaper in Swiss franc terms... " - Gene Jaquet

    Which might lead one to wonder if the SNB will be buying more gold any time soon, while the opportunity presents itself?
    Jan 19, 2015. 11:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using MPT Factor Tilts In Stock Selection [View article]
    "I was trying to construct a Modern Dividend Theory to contrast to Modern Portfolio Theory. Step one was to get around the dividend-irrelevance theorem. It is hard to build a theory about something that you first dismiss as irrelevant." - DVK

    It is indeed a sad thing to witness those whose chief limitations are due to self-imposed unquestionable beliefs. To each his own though, I guess.
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 48 Increases Expected In The Next 11 Weeks [View article]
    "Bought DLR just over a year ago ... this make me look like a genius." Dividend Nut

    I also got my DLR in late 2013 / early 2014 for an average price of ~$49.30, but it's due to Brad Thomas' genius, not my own. I was simply willing to buy what appeared to be a well run business at a time when the market could only see its faults and priced it accordingly.

    I must admit I'm pleased with the results so far. :-)
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gold Resource Reports Outstanding High-Grade Drill Results At Alta-Gracia [View article]
    Thanks for the timely update. I'm pleased as punch that I backed up the truck when GORO dipped down to $3.00 per share. I'm DRIP'ing the monthly 4% dividends and so far the shares are up over 20% (before the drill results were released).

    If we're really lucky the combination of expanding proven resources, increased recovery from the new mill, recently rising precious metal prices, and a possible increase in the dividend will drive the shares much higher into the high single digits, or beyond.

    That'd be nice.
    Jan 17, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using MPT Factor Tilts In Stock Selection [View article]
    Nice application of the always touted MPT Factors in selecting DG stocks to own individually. I don't see how the anti-DGI crowd can be against that.

    I keep thinking you should have a subtitle for this article. It reminds me of one of David Fish's Smackdown articles. I'd call it an MPT Factor Smackdown. Ha!!
    Jan 17, 2015. 09:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Real Dividend Growth Machine: 2014 Review [View article]
    After reading your first article some time ago I immediately started following your writings. Every new article continues to prove that was a wise choice to make. Your investing execution is spot on too. Thanks for taking the time to share with everyone here on SA.

    In addition to being happy to see you are doing very well I must admit that it's no surprise to me. You have established a framework for investing success that few bother to attempt and it will pay off in the end. Congrats and keep it going.

    Have you laid out a series of portfolio goals (income or total value) over the years until you reach retirement age? If so comparing your results to that series of goals would probably be a positive addition to your reviews, IMHO.

    If you can continue to compound the current portfolio value at 8.8% CAGR you will reach Chowder's $3 Million goal by age 65. Getting there by age 60 would require a CAGR of 10.5%. 13.1% CAGR gets you there by age 55.

    Congratulations. You've put yourself in a quite favorable position at your age. Well done and please keep posting your reviews going forward. Lots of younger folks will be able to see it's possible that way and that can't be a bad thing.
    Jan 12, 2015. 07:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Year-End Review Of Dividend Growth Investing Vs Total Return Investing [View instapost]
    Thank you for posting your data. It is a rare case when anyone who is still examining the comparison between TR/indexing and DGI provides actual data to contrast.

    Your balanced approach looks to be about 5% ahead of DVK's model DGI portfolio based on the data presented, but that's not the whole story.

    To take things a step further I would point out that your two-fund approach provides a yield of around 1.5% vs DVK's yield of around 4%. That's a pretty significant difference in income generated (that might not matter to some, but it's still a difference once retirement hits).

    In addition, your two-fund approach has a blended beta around 1.15 while DVK's portfolio has a beta closer to 0.7.

    Given the large difference in beta, it is not surprising that the two-fund approach had higher TR than DVK during the strong bull market period between 2009 and 2014. The two-fund combination should have outperformed by a great deal more than 5% in order to offset the higher risk that will likely show itself in the next market downturn.

    I haven't done the math, but on a risk adjusted return basis I believe that DVK's portfolio performance would exceed the two-fund approach you show here.

    It will be interesting to see how the two approaches fare as time passes. The next significant downturn might change things somewhat.
    Jan 11, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2014 Review And 2015 Preview [View article]
    "But then what would we do with the dividend cuts?" - rashbaugh

    Cue the Magic Pants self-repair kit....
    Jan 11, 2015. 05:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2014 Review And 2015 Preview [View article]
    "Smarty, don't tear the magic pockets in your Magic Pants when you are buffing, or they might lose their magical quality." - DVK

    Dave ...... They're Magical!! That makes them impervious to almost everything. I think somewhere in the back pocket is a self-repair capability, just in case I run into kryptonite.
    Jan 11, 2015. 05:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2014 Review And 2015 Preview [View article]
    "The dividend agnostic people will now call them dividents because they put a dent in a companies book value or some other such nonsensical thing." - Chowder

    Not to worry. I've got Magic Pants. I buff those dividents right out with 'em. Leaves my portfolio looking like new. ;-)
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2014 Review And 2015 Preview [View article]
    "I love my dividents too, don't want to discriminate. (Sounds vaguely like teeth, or maybe a chewing gum for middle schoolers.)" - DVK

    Given it's a CNBC label, it might not be intended as a flattering term.

    I'm thinking that dividents could be the marks left when dividends 'hit' your account. After several decades of dividents any portfolio would be all nicked and dinged up. Who would possibly want that? The horror!
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: 2014 Review And 2015 Preview [View article]
    Thanks for another 'predictable' update DVK.

    The steady progression of your growing income has now become somewhat less than exciting, except when you consider that you set those income goals nearly 6 years ago and have hit every one of them in stride while outpacing the SPY in TR with a ~30% lower portfolio Beta.

    I imagine that there are many investment professionals out there that would consider making a pact with the Devil to do the same for their customers over the same time frame.

    Outstanding!!
    Jan 5, 2015. 07:21 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Demonstration Of How Dividend Growth Investing Outperforms [View article]
    "But I still think it has nothing to do with how fast they grow their earnings and their dividends." - PTI

    True, but the current valuation of any stock you buy is what enables out-performance in the long run. The low rate environment tends to reduce the number of undervalued stocks to choose from. Still, you are correct, as long as the stocks one buys are fairly or under valued the low rate environment is not a driving factor in future performance.
    Jan 1, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My K.I.S.S. Dividend Portfolio: 4th Quarter 2014 Update And Year-End Review [View article]
    Great job with the portfolio and equally as great with the update. A 3.5% yield with 10+% dividend growth is a portfolio that many professional money managers would envy.

    Your indexing exercise is providing much needed real-world data to use for realistic comparisons given you are adding money and reinvesting exactly the same in your indices as in your real portfolio.

    I feel that it would be a great addition to provide a series of income goals going forward that are based on anticipated expenses in retirement. Your dividend income is already so significantly ahead of your original estimates as to make them of little consequence.

    Even with 15+ years to retirement you can make a worst case estimate of your spending needs (housing, student loan payments, utilities, food, travel, etc.) at retirement, then use that to generate an annual series of equal growth income levels to use as goals. Then your real world portfolio numbers can be compared to that series when evaluating how well you are doing each quarter or year.

    For instance, your current annual dividend income is $35,206 at age 50.

    Let's assume that you estimate your annual income needs at age 65 to be $12,000 per month (just picking a number out of the air). That's $144,000 annually. You can calculate that you would need to increase your dividend income by 9.85% each year to reach that goal. Then you can generate a table of annual income levels to meet by starting at $35,206 and increasing each year's amount by a factor of 1.0985 to establish a series of annual dividend income goals.

    Those annual income goals will enable you to compare actual performance to "what you need" and make adjustments (like saving more, or figuring out how to cut expenses in retirement) as you go. Having that kind of feedback along the way will give you better control over guiding your plan to meet your needs.
    Jan 1, 2015. 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Demonstration Of How Dividend Growth Investing Outperforms [View article]
    "You say dividend stocks are more popular during low rate environments. What does that have to do with their growth rate? Do they grow their earnings faster due to low rates? Don't non-dividend paying companies enjoy the same benefit? So I don't really understand what you mean." PTI quoting B-H-R

    Not trying to put words into B-H-R's mouth but here's my take on his statement about dividend stocks in low interest rates environments.

    The argument would go something like this:

    When 1 year risk free interest rates are below the rate of inflation, as they are now, investors have a difficult time growing the purchasing power of their savings with bonds. So, they instead put their bond money into dividend stocks in order to earn more income than they can get in (safer) short term bonds (longer term bonds carry extra risk should rates or inflation rise and principal be lost).

    This generates 'extra' demand for dividend stocks and tends to push their prices into overvalued territory. Once rates rise again these investors will, in theory, pull all their money out of dividend stocks and put it back into bonds putting downside pressure on DG type stocks.

    There's probably some merit to this point for anyone who buys DG stocks without considering valuations. As Chuck Carnevale continually points out, only buy stocks at fair or undervalued prices. In a low rate environment it is probably more difficult to find those undervalued DG stocks, but not impossible.

    Low rates probably make implementing a DG strategy more challenging, but it can still be done IMHO.
    Jan 1, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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