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Smarty_Pants

Smarty_Pants
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  • The Numbers Are In! [View article]
    Faye,

    Looks like you've been very busy with everything. Glad to see you are managing to keep up with the portfolio anyway. Also glad to see you realize the importance of other activities. Try to keep a sensible balance.

    You could do a lot worse than building a position in SLW now. The PM complex appears to be building up to an upside breakout, led by the miners. A leveraged 'miner' like SLW will probably be one of the leaders in the pack.
    Jul 5 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Well-Oiled Cash Flow Machine Continues To Perform Beyond Expectations [View article]
    "Smarty: Nice idea and if you have Win8 - you can put Google right on your desktop and make those adjustments from the desktop......as well as saving needed materials right to Google so you have an automatic backup working." - mbkelly75

    I HAD Win8, until it self destructed on me, just like Vista did before it. I rebuilt my laptop using Linux and won't ever go back.

    I set up a google docs version of my portfolio with the stocks in the same order as in my local Libre Office spreadsheet. Now when I update I just open the google docs version, copy all the prices, and paste into my home spreadsheet. Before that, I had to enter each price by hand, which took a LOT longer. I keep backups on both a thumb drive and a usb hard drive, so no worries there.
    Jul 5 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Well-Oiled Cash Flow Machine Continues To Perform Beyond Expectations [View article]
    Google Docs can also be used to update your personal spreadsheets.

    Here is an example you can use as a basis for generating your own based on your holdings:

    http://bit.ly/1olGqsg

    Copy one of the rows and paste in more rows based on the number of holdings you own. Change the stock symbols to reflect your stocks, then copy and paste the data into your own personal spreadsheet. The nice part is that the google spreadsheet updates each time you open it so you get the most recent data. It saves me a lot of time from the former manual entry method I used to use.

    You may need to sign up for a google account if you don't already have one.
    Jul 5 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part II: Leverage) [View article]
    Nice addition to the series Left Banker. I'm not sure that I'd personally use CEFs as a long term holding, but they might work as an opportunistic trade.

    I've looked at one CEF in more detail (IRR - a buy/write equity fund) and have a question. Total performance for the fund over 10 years (2.6% CAGR) vs its largest holding (XOM - 11.4% CAGR) seems odd. It appears to me that the holder is trading long term gains for short term income but in the process they are eating their seed corn, albeit slowly.

    Am I missing something? It would appear at first glance that buying XOM and selling off shares slowly might produce better results over time. If one insists on using the CEF, actively buying / selling shares based on variations in the discount to NAV would seem a necessary precaution.
    Jul 4 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part I) [View article]
    "the comment software does not like strings separated by slashes or commas and they get truncated" - Left Banker

    Actually it's the number of continuous non-white space characters in a row which triggers truncation. Sprinkle a few spaces in any long string and it will display properly.

    1234567890123456789012...

    1234567890 1234567890 1234567890
    Jul 4 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: ETF Portfolio Vs. The Stock Only Portfolio: Surprise, Surprise! [View article]
    "Your study would be more meaningful and hold greater value for investors with better criteria for selection of the ETFs." - Riskybiz181

    Why not set up a portfolio based on your criteria and establish it based on the same start date RS used? It's only been 3 months.

    I'm sure most readers would welcome another real life example to compare. You could easily post results as a comment whenever RS updates his numbers.
    Jun 29 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "I am done trying to get this across to you." - mjs_28s

    As you wish. Best of luck applying your methodology. It appears my thoughts on the matter are too simplistic.

    I just try to figure out a price that reflects a good value for the stocks I'm interested in buying for an investment. I don't really have the time to figure out what everyone else is doing with the money they have sitting "on the sidelines".

    It always struck me as counter-productive to attempt divining which direction the investing crowd was going to surge next. I hope it works out well for you though.
    Jun 26 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "I would not be surprised if smarty pants saw Mr. Bogle's interview on CNBC." - Dividends#1

    That would be a definite 'no'. I don't watch any cable, much less CNBC. Haven't subscribed to cable since 1993. The above comments are my own thoughts on the matter.

    I'm still not sure if mjs_28s grasps my point, but I can provide two examples to further illuminate it:

    Example 1)

    I hold $10,000 "on the sideline" in my brokerage account in cash. Trader B owns 100 shares of Stock X currently valued at $100 per share (last trade). For purposes of this example the total market value of "stocks" is $10,000 and the total "cash on the sideline" is also $10,000. (It's a simple model.)

    Trader B reads some obscure blog site which claims that Stock X is mis-stating earnings and sells all his shares at the market. I have a limit order in for Stock X at a price of $99 per share. I buy Trader B's 100 shares for $9,900. End result: I own 100 shares of Stock X at $9,900 and have $100 cash remaining. Trader B owns $9,900 in cash. Total market value of X is now $9,900 and total cash "on the sideline" is $10,000 ($9,900 for Trader B and $100 for me).


    Example 2)

    I hold $10,000 "on the sideline" in my brokerage account in cash. Trader B owns 100 shares of Stock X currently valued at $100 per share (last trade). For purposes of this example the total market value of "stocks" is $10,000 and the total "cash on the sideline" is also $10,000.

    I read some obscure blog site which claims that Stock X is developing a miracle cure for cancer and buy 99 shares of Stock X at the market. Trader B has a limit order in to sell Stock X at a price of $101 per share. I buy Trader B's 99 shares for $9,999. End result: I own 99 shares of Stock X at $9,999 and have $1 cash. Trader B owns $9,999 in cash and has one share of X at $101. Total market value of X is now $10,100 and total cash "on the sideline" is $10,000 ($9,999 for Trader B and $1 for me).

    =-=-=-=-=-=-

    The market moved roughly 1% in opposite directions for those two cases, yet the cash "on the sideline" remained constant at $10,000 both times. The cash isn't what drove the market. It's the changes in perception of Stock X that changed market value. The cash sitting on the sideline remains the same throughout, it just changes ownership.
    Jun 26 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    mjs_28s:

    What I'm trying to point out is the fallacy of thinking that cash "sitting on the sidelines" is a factor in driving stock prices higher. Whether shares of stock are bought or sold, one of the two parties involved winds up holding cash, and by extension it is still "sitting on the sidelines" in a different account than before the trade occurred.

    Yet the transaction may have driven the stock price higher, or lower, depending on which party accepted the less favourable side of the spread when agreeing to the trade. The fact that the cash was sitting there didn't drive the price change. The desire to make the exchange by one participant at a higher, or lower, price is what drove the change in price.

    People who are willing to sell at the Bid will drive prices lower. People willing to buy at the Ask will drive prices higher. Either way the amount of cash sitting around remains the same before and after the trade, it has simply changed hands.

    The only way to reduce the cash "sitting on the sidelines" is to spend it on something other than financial assets (ie. buy a car / house / groceries/ etc.) or remove it from your account and stuff it in the mattress.
    Jun 26 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "The Fed is part of the reason, but not for what 182928 was trying to claim about money trying up. With $10 trillion in cash there is clearly plenty of money that can replace the Fed freeing up / printing cash." - mjs_28s

    With all due respect, the cash sitting on the sidelines will always be somewhere. The only way for it to disappear is for the FED to buy it back via selling bonds the FED currently holds.

    Once spent into the economy after being created by the FED, cash is always held by someone. When one person currently "on the sidelines" buys stock, his cash goes into the account of the person who sold the stock and STILL "sits on the sidelines" in that person's account.

    The cash doesn't disappear, it changes hands in exchange for the stock. The buyer and seller have simply traded ownership of the two assets. Even if the seller spends the money on something else, it simply changes hands with the seller of that item (who might then use it to buy stocks).

    How's that for a brain-bender?
    Jun 25 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "chowder: "Market goes up, I get paid. Market goes down, I get paid."

    I would add one more thing: 'Next year I get paid more."

    Now THAT's the beautiful elegance of DGI. Ha!
    Jun 21 09:47 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "An overwhelming majority of investors and pundits claim after the fact to have "seen it coming" when talking about corrections and crashes. And they may actually believe it." - locutus49

    As one who falls into the category of someone who went to cash in August 2007 and bought puts on the market in November 2007, I made a nice profit on the 2008 decline. But I wouldn't try it again today on the scale I did back then.

    Once the FED bailed out Bear Stearns, and sold them to JP Morgan at a fire-sale price, I closed my short position, (or I would have made a lot more). Now that the government has taken on the role of choosing which failing institutions get to survive it has become dangerous to play on the short side without inside information, which I don't have.

    There's no point in trying to find the top of the market as the FED has shown they are willing to disregard the rules and "save the day" at any cost. They are willing to gamble on the destruction of the dollar's value in an effort to prop up the markets.

    An investor is better served to do as Chuck's article suggests. Buy quality companies when they are at good valuations. If you feel the market, or a particular stock, is getting too expensive you can always trim the position and move the money into a better valued stock. That's my plan.
    Jun 21 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "We live in a puritanical country where it is all too easy to pronounce judgement on the actions of others." - locutus49

    IMHO, pronouncing is one thing, where I have problems is when they insist on forcing me to live by their moral codes and further believe that they have a right to apply that force based on those same morals.

    Some folks just aren't willing to let people make their own decisions and suffer the eventual consequences. They seem unable to draw the line between persuasion and the application of force, and they often conflate the two.
    Jun 21 09:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "There is no doubt that during the Carter years, with interest rate being where they were, the "best" use of money back then was (in hindsight) CD's that locked in interest rates for 5 year terms." - David Crosetti

    From November of 1979 to November of 1985 you could buy 30 year T-Bonds yielding 10% or higher. Their yields peaked at 14.5% in the fall of 1981.

    A pile of those would pay between 5% and 7% every six months for 30 years, which is a pretty sweet deal in hindsight.
    Jun 21 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avista Corp. Announces Stock Repurchase Program [View article]
    Once finished the buyback should boost earnings per share about 6.5%.
    Jun 15 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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