Seeking Alpha

Smarty_Pants

Smarty_Pants
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Smarty_Pants' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "chowder: "Market goes up, I get paid. Market goes down, I get paid."

    I would add one more thing: 'Next year I get paid more."

    Now THAT's the beautiful elegance of DGI. Ha!
    Jun 21 09:47 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "An overwhelming majority of investors and pundits claim after the fact to have "seen it coming" when talking about corrections and crashes. And they may actually believe it." - locutus49

    As one who falls into the category of someone who went to cash in August 2007 and bought puts on the market in November 2007, I made a nice profit on the 2008 decline. But I wouldn't try it again today on the scale I did back then.

    Once the FED bailed out Bear Stearns, and sold them to JP Morgan at a fire-sale price, I closed my short position, (or I would have made a lot more). Now that the government has taken on the role of choosing which failing institutions get to survive it has become dangerous to play on the short side without inside information, which I don't have.

    There's no point in trying to find the top of the market as the FED has shown they are willing to disregard the rules and "save the day" at any cost. They are willing to gamble on the destruction of the dollar's value in an effort to prop up the markets.

    An investor is better served to do as Chuck's article suggests. Buy quality companies when they are at good valuations. If you feel the market, or a particular stock, is getting too expensive you can always trim the position and move the money into a better valued stock. That's my plan.
    Jun 21 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "We live in a puritanical country where it is all too easy to pronounce judgement on the actions of others." - locutus49

    IMHO, pronouncing is one thing, where I have problems is when they insist on forcing me to live by their moral codes and further believe that they have a right to apply that force based on those same morals.

    Some folks just aren't willing to let people make their own decisions and suffer the eventual consequences. They seem unable to draw the line between persuasion and the application of force, and they often conflate the two.
    Jun 21 09:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fallen Dividend Champions: I Still Have No Fear Of A Market Crash: Part 2 [View article]
    "There is no doubt that during the Carter years, with interest rate being where they were, the "best" use of money back then was (in hindsight) CD's that locked in interest rates for 5 year terms." - David Crosetti

    From November of 1979 to November of 1985 you could buy 30 year T-Bonds yielding 10% or higher. Their yields peaked at 14.5% in the fall of 1981.

    A pile of those would pay between 5% and 7% every six months for 30 years, which is a pretty sweet deal in hindsight.
    Jun 21 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avista Corp. Announces Stock Repurchase Program [View article]
    Once finished the buyback should boost earnings per share about 6.5%.
    Jun 15 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks for a great article Chuck. Your patience and persistence alone are quite impressive.
    Jun 14 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold My Shares In Altria [View article]
    "So for someone who has no position in (MO) when do you start ? At what price?" - Interesting Times

    Good question. I got my shares during a market dip, which was fortunate for me. There are any number of ways to figure a good entry price. One that I like to use is to determine an acceptable level of yield and calculate the price necessary to get it.

    For instance, you can see a plot of MO yield on ycharts.com:

    http://bit.ly/1kzYMlU

    Choose an historical timeframe (let's say 3 years) and find the peak yield (around 6%) and the lowest yield (~4.6%), then choose a value somewhere between them that suits you. Let's say the half-way point of 5.3% (you could use higher or lower, but this is easy for an example).

    At the current dividend level of $1.92, to get a 5.3% yield you would need a price of

    $1.92 / .053 = $36.22

    The nice thing about using a yield point to buy is that you can adjust the price when the dividend is increased and get the "same deal". So for example, if MO increases their dividend to $2.08 you recalculate your entry price at the same 5.3% yield:

    $2.08 / .053 = $39.24

    One great aspect of this method is I can calculate the price I want and then enter a limit order to buy. Now I don't have to pay such close attention to get my shares. If the price dips low enough my order will be filled at my price. I do have to change my order after the dividend is increased though.
    Jun 14 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold My Shares In Altria [View article]
    I'm with grayhairguy. Picked my MO up in early 2011 at $24.60. Have collected roughly $4.50 per share in dividends and gained $16.75 in price. That works out to an 86+% total gain in 3 years, or a CAGR of 23% annually. The next increase in the dividend will put my YOC over 8%.

    I don't have many investments that perform so well over time. I can agree that I wouldn't be itching to buy more at these prices, but sell? No thanks.
    Jun 13 03:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Champions To Buy Today [View article]
    "if you ever decide to become an English Premier League fan, in the sport of soccer, the real football, you should probably become a Liverpool fan. Their slogan is "You'll Never Walk Alone." - Chowder

    Or a fan of the Australian Rules Football Collingwood Magpies, whose slogan is "Side by Side We Stand Together".

    Seems there's folks to support Chuck everywhere you go. ;-)
    Jun 9 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    I use Libre Office, or Office 97. Cut 'n Paste is a big improvement over what I've been doing, so no worries there.

    Thanks again.
    Jun 9 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    "If I had, I wouldn't be writing this right now because I'd be too busy chillaxin' on my private island as beautiful, scantily-clad women fan me and feed me grapes." - Mike Nadel

    The fact that an island like this is for sale somewhere escaped my attention.

    Perhaps several of us could pool our resources and buy it as an "investment" property. Naturally we'd all have to take turns as the on-site manager. ;-)
    Jun 8 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Bob. I was surprised myself to have found that making a multi-stock trade-off would turn out to be such an improvement across the board.

    It sort of makes the point that one should step back and re-evaluate all their current positions to see if there isn't a better choice once in a while. I get buy and monitor, but sometimes switching is a no-brainer too.
    Jun 8 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    BIB,

    Thanks for the clarification. I'm a bit old fashioned when it comes to maintaining my financial data. I keep it on my local computer. Copy and paste is a lot faster than manually entering each price, as I do now. So having a bulk price generator with a one step copy 'n paste transfer function is a big time saver for me.

    My take on the data being available from "virtually any device" would include devices operated by someone other than myself, and I don't really consider that a good thing under all cases. Besides, I would only have access when I have internet connectivity in that case. So I'm going to stick with my somewhat more secure, and always accessible, local storage for now.

    Thanks again for the clarification. It's always a good thing to find a better way to skin the cat.
    Jun 8 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    I gather that the stock price functions you are using only work on Googledocs?

    I have tried using the price function on my own excel spreadsheets (I use LibreOffice Calc on an Ubuntu machine) and get an error.

    It appears I can create a Googledocs sheet to get the prices, which I can then copy and paste into my local spreadsheet. That's still faster than updating things manually like I've been doing.

    Thanks for posting this tutorial too. I'm sure it will save a lot of people a great deal of time in their record keeping process.
    Jun 8 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    "I ponder the future of those investments which - through capital appreciation - have a low yield. I have a bunch of MSFT and JNJ. I am wondering "Should I re-direct these funds into higher yielding investments?"" - drcarl

    The answer to that question is going to vary based on each investor's personal goals and the stage of DGI they occupy. I'm still filling out my DG holdings, so I consider adding new stock holdings a benefit. Several times I've sold or trimmed current holdings to buy new stocks, but in general I require that my dividend income increase as a result.

    One example: I bought WAG when it was at 30-ish. I sold half at 60-ish and bought SO on a dip. Now my WAG is 75-ish and my SO is up 7%, but my dollars at risk for each position is half what it used to be for WAG originally, and my income is higher too. If I hadn't wanted to expand the number of stocks I hold, I might not have made the switch though. They're both good holdings.

    Example 2: In early 2014 I looked over my portfolio and did a 3 for 3 stock swap, which I wrote an instablog about, here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In that swap I sold off low paying, slow growing stocks for higher paying, faster growing stocks. My income went up and it is increasing faster too. The only real cost was paying taxes on the capital gains, which is a one time event. The extra income will continue for a long, long time.

    Bottom line: Don't be afraid to make changes if they provide more of the things your investing plan is designed to get. Just remember that you should ALWAYS buy quality holdings when you go that route.

    The past trades I made shouldn't be what drives your decision to do something similar. Those were beneficial for me. They might be detrimental for your goals. I'm happy to show what I did and explain why so that you can consider it and decide what's best for you.

    In the end you will have to live with the consequences of your decision, so consider it carefully. If it looks like something that will really benefit your end goals then don't be afraid to act because of what other investors are, or aren't, doing.
    Jun 8 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,797 Comments
5,744 Likes