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Smarty_Pants

Smarty_Pants
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  • Avista Corp. Announces Stock Repurchase Program [View article]
    Once finished the buyback should boost earnings per share about 6.5%.
    Jun 15 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks for a great article Chuck. Your patience and persistence alone are quite impressive.
    Jun 14 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold My Shares In Altria [View article]
    "So for someone who has no position in (MO) when do you start ? At what price?" - Interesting Times

    Good question. I got my shares during a market dip, which was fortunate for me. There are any number of ways to figure a good entry price. One that I like to use is to determine an acceptable level of yield and calculate the price necessary to get it.

    For instance, you can see a plot of MO yield on ycharts.com:

    http://bit.ly/1kzYMlU

    Choose an historical timeframe (let's say 3 years) and find the peak yield (around 6%) and the lowest yield (~4.6%), then choose a value somewhere between them that suits you. Let's say the half-way point of 5.3% (you could use higher or lower, but this is easy for an example).

    At the current dividend level of $1.92, to get a 5.3% yield you would need a price of

    $1.92 / .053 = $36.22

    The nice thing about using a yield point to buy is that you can adjust the price when the dividend is increased and get the "same deal". So for example, if MO increases their dividend to $2.08 you recalculate your entry price at the same 5.3% yield:

    $2.08 / .053 = $39.24

    One great aspect of this method is I can calculate the price I want and then enter a limit order to buy. Now I don't have to pay such close attention to get my shares. If the price dips low enough my order will be filled at my price. I do have to change my order after the dividend is increased though.
    Jun 14 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold My Shares In Altria [View article]
    I'm with grayhairguy. Picked my MO up in early 2011 at $24.60. Have collected roughly $4.50 per share in dividends and gained $16.75 in price. That works out to an 86+% total gain in 3 years, or a CAGR of 23% annually. The next increase in the dividend will put my YOC over 8%.

    I don't have many investments that perform so well over time. I can agree that I wouldn't be itching to buy more at these prices, but sell? No thanks.
    Jun 13 03:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Champions To Buy Today [View article]
    "if you ever decide to become an English Premier League fan, in the sport of soccer, the real football, you should probably become a Liverpool fan. Their slogan is "You'll Never Walk Alone." - Chowder

    Or a fan of the Australian Rules Football Collingwood Magpies, whose slogan is "Side by Side We Stand Together".

    Seems there's folks to support Chuck everywhere you go. ;-)
    Jun 9 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    I use Libre Office, or Office 97. Cut 'n Paste is a big improvement over what I've been doing, so no worries there.

    Thanks again.
    Jun 9 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    "If I had, I wouldn't be writing this right now because I'd be too busy chillaxin' on my private island as beautiful, scantily-clad women fan me and feed me grapes." - Mike Nadel

    The fact that an island like this is for sale somewhere escaped my attention.

    Perhaps several of us could pool our resources and buy it as an "investment" property. Naturally we'd all have to take turns as the on-site manager. ;-)
    Jun 8 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Bob. I was surprised myself to have found that making a multi-stock trade-off would turn out to be such an improvement across the board.

    It sort of makes the point that one should step back and re-evaluate all their current positions to see if there isn't a better choice once in a while. I get buy and monitor, but sometimes switching is a no-brainer too.
    Jun 8 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    BIB,

    Thanks for the clarification. I'm a bit old fashioned when it comes to maintaining my financial data. I keep it on my local computer. Copy and paste is a lot faster than manually entering each price, as I do now. So having a bulk price generator with a one step copy 'n paste transfer function is a big time saver for me.

    My take on the data being available from "virtually any device" would include devices operated by someone other than myself, and I don't really consider that a good thing under all cases. Besides, I would only have access when I have internet connectivity in that case. So I'm going to stick with my somewhat more secure, and always accessible, local storage for now.

    Thanks again for the clarification. It's always a good thing to find a better way to skin the cat.
    Jun 8 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Spreadsheets For Beginners [View instapost]
    I gather that the stock price functions you are using only work on Googledocs?

    I have tried using the price function on my own excel spreadsheets (I use LibreOffice Calc on an Ubuntu machine) and get an error.

    It appears I can create a Googledocs sheet to get the prices, which I can then copy and paste into my local spreadsheet. That's still faster than updating things manually like I've been doing.

    Thanks for posting this tutorial too. I'm sure it will save a lot of people a great deal of time in their record keeping process.
    Jun 8 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    "I ponder the future of those investments which - through capital appreciation - have a low yield. I have a bunch of MSFT and JNJ. I am wondering "Should I re-direct these funds into higher yielding investments?"" - drcarl

    The answer to that question is going to vary based on each investor's personal goals and the stage of DGI they occupy. I'm still filling out my DG holdings, so I consider adding new stock holdings a benefit. Several times I've sold or trimmed current holdings to buy new stocks, but in general I require that my dividend income increase as a result.

    One example: I bought WAG when it was at 30-ish. I sold half at 60-ish and bought SO on a dip. Now my WAG is 75-ish and my SO is up 7%, but my dollars at risk for each position is half what it used to be for WAG originally, and my income is higher too. If I hadn't wanted to expand the number of stocks I hold, I might not have made the switch though. They're both good holdings.

    Example 2: In early 2014 I looked over my portfolio and did a 3 for 3 stock swap, which I wrote an instablog about, here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In that swap I sold off low paying, slow growing stocks for higher paying, faster growing stocks. My income went up and it is increasing faster too. The only real cost was paying taxes on the capital gains, which is a one time event. The extra income will continue for a long, long time.

    Bottom line: Don't be afraid to make changes if they provide more of the things your investing plan is designed to get. Just remember that you should ALWAYS buy quality holdings when you go that route.

    The past trades I made shouldn't be what drives your decision to do something similar. Those were beneficial for me. They might be detrimental for your goals. I'm happy to show what I did and explain why so that you can consider it and decide what's best for you.

    In the end you will have to live with the consequences of your decision, so consider it carefully. If it looks like something that will really benefit your end goals then don't be afraid to act because of what other investors are, or aren't, doing.
    Jun 8 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Champions To Buy Today [View article]
    Nice summary Chuck. I agree with your claim that finding value in the market is a matter of individual stocks and not the conglomeration of the market as a whole.

    Interestingly, it appears that only one of the stocks you list, MO, passes the Chowder Rule though some of the others come reasonably close.

    On the downside, given record corporate profits, and elevated P/E ratios, the possibility of a slowdown in profit growth combined with a P/E deflation does indicate that the general level of market risk might be higher than one would like. Doesn't mean that the value isn't out there to buy, just that outperforming historical norms might be a bit of a sluggish event going forward.
    Jun 5 03:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio's 6th Birthday Report [View article]
    Congratulations DVK!! Yet ANOTHER year of beating "the market" as an individual stock-picker. I'm sure MPT'ers have a laundry list of reasons ready for why you are in such a statistically small group of investors.

    I did a little digging and came across this 2010 paper on the returns for mutual fund managers:

    http://bit.ly/1nUygJr (38 page .pdf file)

    They concluded the following:

    "We apply our novel approach to the monthly returns of 2,076 actively man-
    aged U.S. open-end, domestic equity mutual funds that exist at any time be-
    tween 1975 and 2006 (inclusive), ... We start with an examination of the long-term
    (lifetime) performance of these funds, net of trading costs and expenses. Our de-
    composition of the population reveals that 75.4% are zero-alpha funds - funds
    that have managers with some stock-picking ability, but that extract all of the
    rents generated by these abilities through fees. Further, 24.0% of the funds
    are unskilled (true α < 0), while only 0.6% are skilled (true α > 0) - the latter
    being statistically indistinguishable from zero."

    I don't know if six years qualifies a long-term event or not, but you are demonstrably outperforming 99.4% of the ranks of professional mutual fund managers every year of that span.

    Personally, I'd consider that VERY distinguisable from 'zero'. Great job!
    Jun 1 04:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Retiring On Dividend Income (Part 2) [View article]

    "Is the dividend-irrelevancy principle so important that anyone who questions it, or who invests as if dividends ARE important, needs to be criticized again and again? ... Why?" - DVK


    Some TR adherents, they pester,
    The conservative DG Investor.
    Their income it rockets,
    Without Magic Pant pockets,
    So obviously their method is "bester".
    May 29 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manipulating Dividends To Manage Volatility [View article]
    "One of the critical errors dividend investors are prone to is the emotional effect of pricing. When prices are high we feel good and more confident that our nest eggs will support our needs. When prices are low we feel the opposite, and get concerned about our financial future. Neither of these emotions contribute to portfolio management and generally work in the opposite direction to the desired goal." - Mark Bertolin

    This is true of every investor, however it is less true of investors whose primary concern is the dividend income, in general. My personal experience has been that since I started focusing on the financially sound and regularly increasing dividend stream I am much less prone to emotionally react to changes in price.

    I now consider price pullbacks as buying opportunities in the companies I am looking to own. When I can buy those great dividend increasing stocks at bargain basement prices it's a great thing.

    For example, I bought my shares in MO during the price drop back in late 2010 at $24 and change with a ~6.2% yield. Fast forward three and a half years to today, and after the next anticipated dividend increase in Q3, I will be collecting dividends at an 8+% yield on my original share cost, and I'm holding a 65+% (paper) gain on the stock price. Buying a great company during a significant price drop really pays off over time.

    I do appreciate your approach for deploying dividends received based on the value of the underlying stock. I take all my dividends in cash and deploy to the best opportunities available at the time, rather than reinvest in the issuing company every quarter regardless of price. I understand why some would choose to automatically reinvest all the time, but for my needs directing all the incoming cash to the best opportunities makes the most sense.
    May 28 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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