Kinja Rules

The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?

Most Excellent Claus! This has been a theory of mine for awhile. We may have to go through a time of hyperinflation 1st as Billions are being printed as we speak. I do seriously agree on the demographics. As well as the 1st to come back will be emerging mkts. I like your word, dissavings...As it will be just that. I also agree that the older demographic will be more adversely affected. These are the very people who were in the fixed income that is not trading now. In the US there was a 90 yr old woman who shot herself last week b/c of Foreclosure...The Global Traders are were Out @ the end of last yr mostly. The other group that will suffer Greatly is the Retirement Fund Crowd in the US. This is what is supporting the US mkt for sure.

Your insite is excellent but you try to write like a text book. Somewhat difficult to read.

As you stated the Rescue by the US was the only option. On the other hand, I think the US $ will fall. We just keep printing dollars. Europe will be Forced to do some similar package or watch Rome burn, as well as the Euro. The Real Blood is just now showing up on the Real Streets. As this happens, Asia, South America, Central America, Middle East, will be shoved up against the wall or kill the System. Much like the Ugliest Global Financial Crisis has played out very quickly, it is possible to go hyperinflation just as quickly. Then, full on deflation as consumers can not pay for anything on the cash adjusted basis. Note EBAY...There is an Exodus that I have never seen in all my life. Buy nothing you do not need, be prepared as your neighbors lose their minds. This is a site that was prepared for Children to help them understand the World better. The Social Crisis below is affecting many kids as well.

kcet.org/socal/2008/09...

This will be a defining time in your life as well as all others.

Robin Hood in Reverse: In Defense of the U.S. Taxpayer

I guess to understand this problem completely you must be right in the middle of it. We seem to have had some problems lately...Money Mkt funds under $1, 90 day Treasury's w/negative interest. This is Nothing Compared to the Domino Effect that Lehman Caused. AIG, MER, UBS, the list goes on. There is alot to be said for MS & GS ducking under the FDIC...help!!!

No One, likes this. The Pigs Get Nothing! Unfortunately if any of us are going to keep the value of our Ret Funds, Money Mkt, FDIC Ins Funds, CD's, Insurance Co's, Bonds & Pension Funds. Something Drastic has to be done Quickly.

This is basic: If the Teacher's Pension Fund of some State Purchased some or enough of this Trash-They are Done, The Pension Relief Fund was in Hard Times Before This Happened. What about a City or State for that matter? Does this have to do w/Wall St? How about the Mutual Funds that people have NO Idea about what they hold X the top 10% of Holdings? OK...International Banks, nasty topic but valid. They trade Everything w/Everyone All Over the World, are Counter Party to Risk & or Ins...Systemic Collapes?

IMO The Author has his pt & remark! has his. This Debate is Unfortunately what may delay the Emergency Funding that must happen if we want the ATM's to keep working. IF there is big enough whiff of broad based bank runs, everything will simply stop until it can be sorted out. It has happened before...Banks were closed, the Exchanges were Closed. This would happen b/c when there is a panic, good institutions are destroyed as well as bad ones. JMO, but we don't have much time, Tues or Wed? If they let this go on too long it will destroy the Credibility of the US Financial System. RatWatcher, you are wise.

The Men in Long White Robes Opened the NY. This Should have been Reassuring...Governmen... Around the World are Supporting their "Free Markets." This is a Global Event w/Long Term Global Consequences. There is No Assurance that this plan will work but the failure to act may be more lengthy & costly. I don't TRUST this Administration, nor have I ever-yet I believe time is of the essence.
Also, Vanity or EGO. No One wants to be remembered in the History Books as the folks that finally Busted the Capital Mkt's & Bankrupted Millions of Innocent Citizens around the World. You Think? Power & Ego are twin souls.

I'm not a depressed long, rather a stone cold Bear that was short Jan of '07. I've been All About Gold for a Very Long Time. Yet, this potential systemic disaster is worse than I could have ever imagined. WyoSteve, if you are in the Oil Sands...We really Need to Avoid a Depression as Oil was @ $11 back in '98 & that was only a Failure of a 1/4 of the World. Depression = Deflation on Everything. There is an Economist from NYU who has called this thing as long as 2yrs ago: Nourbini Brilliant!